I’m so fired up to spend yet another day refreshing this website constantly
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Misc Cold Season Complaining
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Same. My fingers are going to be so jittery from all the coffee consumed, they are going to be clicking overtime.
I still won't forget Jan 2017...the globals all said Raleigh would snow but the NAM was like nope...you sleet and we sleeted like crazy. Was supposed to be a 6-8" event and we got 1-2" of sleet.
Snow_chaser
Member
If we don’t like the latest model runs, can we do like Texas football fans and throw trash until the models change their mind?
rburrel2
Member
Check please!!!
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I would not be surprised if the FV3 verified because it has me for the most part, just short on any wintry precipitation.
ITUSETOSNOW
Member
Atl gets shafted as usual.
Snow_chaser
Member
Being a winter weather fan definitely isn’t for the faint hearted. Last couple days the Carolina peeps were doom and gloom and N Alabama and N Georgia was sitting pretty. Now last nights runs flip the script
rburrel2
Member
There's been as many or more instances where it was too warm with a warm nose though. Inlcuding the most recent January 16, 2022 storm. People just more so remember the epic busts. In fact, since that 2017 event, I can't think of another where the NAM led the way on a warm nose. But I can think of several where it was too warm.
It has scored some wins accurately predicting boundary layer issues though, as you'd expect.
ITUSETOSNOW
Member
Yeah, I am sick of winter already.
apple weather is so atrocious. 3-4”? Seriously? They should be ashamed of their product
Must be different for your area but for Raleigh...the NAM is great at sniffing out warm noses. I can't recall really any model busting too warm for Raleigh.
Give me an hour or 2 of good snow rates and I don’t care about a switch to sleet. I’m just so nervous we get shafted and never start as snow
One winter I calculated my amount of time watching models and this forum versus the number of inches of snow I got that winter. It was not a pretty comparison, and that winter was a solid one. I don’t remember the number, but it was many hours per inch.
Snow_chaser
Member
I’m torn, I’m a huge Ohio State fan and want to see the game Friday night so I don’t want to lose power, on the other hand I want some frozen precipitation lol
rburrel2
Member
Here's my notes from right after the 2022 storm:
"Hrrr nailed transitions perfectly 18hrs out, NAM too warm with warm nose. correct to accurate depiction about 12hrs out, Euro locked in from 120hrs out, GFS went to warm and amped up until24hrs before"
But it’s a pretty app.
Nice...it's a different life down in central SC then. I can't remember ever a time models busting to warm for Raleigh. Will see though...right now neither the 3km/12km have any snow in Raleigh whereas every other model does. This will be a good test.
rburrel2
Member
Here's my notes from the Feb 6, 2021 snow storm.
Miller a with -3 850s but warm boundary layer, started off as rain and 39 wetbulb, heavy rates flipped it to snow. Hrrr nailed transition and precip maxima, nam was way too warm at surface and too quick with warm nose and too dry.
Miller a with -3 850s but warm boundary layer, started off as rain and 39 wetbulb, heavy rates flipped it to snow. Hrrr nailed transition and precip maxima, nam was way too warm at surface and too quick with warm nose and too dry.
You sure do get a lot of snow down in central SC...and models tend to bust to warm. I'm moving there...
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Is that the one you reeled In on AmericanWx with HRRR at the last 12hrs ? It was a Saturday I think
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
rburrel2
Member
Actually I think that was the February 8, 2020 event. Here's my notes on that one:
| 3.25 inches all snow | 31.5 min surface temp | all snow, started at 10:15am ended around 1:45pm | hi res models showed a dusting to an inch, and warm surface temps. globals showed nothing in the medium range. - 4 850's and -2 925mb. temps rose to 33.5 as it ended. beautiful tree sticking snow |
Apple is really on my list. iOS has the unmitigated gall to put this pic from March 1, 2009 on my featured photos widget this morning. Siri can eff right on off. Worst timing ever.
Holy crap...how much snow do you get in central SC. Raleigh hasn't seen a snowflake in over 3 years now.
Central is a town near Clemson not sure if that’s clear lol
rburrel2
Member
Clemson is the king of 2.5-3 inch snowfalls. But we always bust in epic fashion on the big dogs.
As such... i'll bet money I get my 2.5-3 from this storm. I'll get lucky on the fronto band even if it's warm/sleety after that, but if its not, i'll get unlucky with the transition lines and banding and still only get 2.5-3.
Snowlover34
Member
The way the models been going up here in the Tennessee valley they might as well down grade the winter storm warning we might just be getting a cold rain with the warm nose consistently pushing north
Geez...that's nice. Raleigh has had 1 3" snow in the past 6 years which is quite a drought based on the previous 20 years.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Don't be silly. You will get snow and ice.
Thor
Member
Updated 
We toss!
Snowlover34
Member
I’m just going through the motions right now
Snow_chaser
Member
lol I feel like Clark griswald opening the telegram expecting a big bonus and getting the jelly of the month. “If this isn’t the biggest bag over the head, punch in the face I ever got….”
NoSnowATL
Member
Dumb hobby, might try drugs, people seem to like that better.
Twister
Member
I'm not saying this because it's my area, But the NW upstate is the Spot to be with this one. I think those areas easily sees 3-6" of Snow/Sleet
rburrel2
Member
People are taking the NAM way too seriously. Hrrr, rgem, fv3 plus the globals all look fine and have trended more flat/weaker if anything. You're just pessimistic if you aren't trashing the NAM right now.
I think it’s probably an outlier, but that model has called its shot before and any pessimistic solution demands a little respect
My question is that if it’s wrong with the track, are it’s generally more accurate thermals useful?
Choose wisely. Some are big ole thumps up front and end with cold rain misery.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯