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Misc Cold Season Complaining

I haven't been following Dallas much, but it seemed like 2 days ago the trends of snow for them were going down quite a bit. Now they trended back to much more snow. We can do the same. LFG
 
Looking like 1-3” in the Triad. Classic winter event with 85 running as a divider. Felt like growing up we would have one of these storms 3-4 times per year… I’d be so pissed with rain, zr or IP while Tobaccoville/King up to MT airy gets blown up with snow, or the flip side I’d be getting snow while SE of GSO was all rain. Always fun to relive it… let’s go!
 
Boundary layer was always going to be an issue in texas/LA/Arkansas. If they bust from a warmer BL I don't think it has any effect on our outcome. (we wont have BL issues).

But looking at their current dew points, I think they'll be fine for the most part. Iffiest area is NW Louisiana.
 
Looks like Nashville is the place to be mets here have definitely drop the snow totals here from 5 to 8 to now 2 to 4 with freezing rain coming here now smfh this really sucks. I pray the models get back on the good train it was on a couple days ago
 
Snowlover34 said:
Looks like Nashville is the place to be mets here have definitely drop the snow totals here from 5 to 8 to now 2 to 4 with freezing rain coming here now smfh this really sucks. I pray the models get back on the good train it was on a couple days ago
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We still have a little time left to turn things around. Hopefully today is good trends.
 
After going to Walmart yesterday and stocking up on a bunch of items and buying a sled I probably should have just saved my money after seeing these model runs. Hopefully i still have my receipts so I can take this stuff back. Sorry if i’m being such a debbie downer right now I haven’t seen snow in years and hope to finally see something worth being excited about. I’m through the motions right now being such a snow fan i need a beer.
 
Snowlover34 said:
Looks like Nashville is the place to be mets here have definitely drop the snow totals here from 5 to 8 to now 2 to 4 with freezing rain coming here now smfh this really sucks. I pray the models get back on the good train it was on a couple days ago
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Sorry man... I was even telling someone the last couple days how much snowier Nashville has been than us because it sure feels that way. I mean Tulsa only needs 2 inches to be the best storm in 3 years...
 
Brent said:
Sorry man... I was even telling someone the last couple days how much snowier Nashville has been than us because it sure feels that way. I mean Tulsa only needs 2 inches to be the best storm in 3 years 🤣
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Yeah you definitely should be getting snow easily around those parts. But the weather channel definitely teased me with the totals yesterday i mean 5 to 8 inches would have been the icing on the cake for me now i got to settle for maybe getting a inch if i’m lucky with ice
 
Snowlover34 said:
Yeah you definitely should be getting snow easily around those parts. But the weather channel definitely teased me with the totals yesterday i mean 5 to 8 inches would have been the icing on the cake for me now i got to settle for maybe getting a inch if i’m lucky with ice
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I'm feeling pretty good about this one but like two winters in a row we had a snow hole and the snow went to Tennessee in both cases so yeah a lot of the reason I went to Kansas City the other day was only because my frustration had been boiling over about it. I never thought it would come to that here. It shouldn't have that's for sure
 
I did a brief review of the models and analysis overnight. So is it still Euro/AI/GFS versus the NAM? That was my take away.
 
I love waking up to the dumbest winter storm ever shat into existence. All the lame. It’s never going to snow in Atlanta again.

Got that complaining out my system. Carry on.
 
IK im In NC and In a decently Favored CAD spot at that, but I really don’t understand the whining from some ? We’re literally gonna squeeze .25 -.5” QPF ALL FROZEN with temps in mid to upper 20’s …. This will be a highly impactful event. 2-3” SN / 1/10 - 1/4” ICE is a good storm. Is the sadness that it’s not an ALL SNOW event? I guess I’m trying to understand. Not saying anyone is unjustifiably upset. It’s not like it went from Frozen to 33 and Rain


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WolfpackHomer91 said:
IK im In NC and In a decently Favored CAD spot at that, but I really don’t understand the whining from some ? We’re literally gonna squeeze .25 -.5” QPF ALL FROZEN with temps in mid to upper 20’s …. This will be a highly impactful event. 2-3” SN / 1/10 - 1/4” ICE is a good storm. Is the sadness that it’s not an ALL SNOW event? I guess I’m trying to understand. Not saying anyone is unjustifiably upset. It’s not like it went from Frozen to 33 and Rain


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I dont get that myself. That is literally how 90% of storms go round these parts.
 
I’m getting December 2018 vibes but different because there’s not going to be the typical Rain/snow battle zone. It will be a snow/ice battle zone that will sag south 50-100 miles. Atypical low level cold with this one (IF models are correct) Something we’re not used to seeing these days.

Here was the HRRR the day before. JuicyIMG_0976.jpeg
What I got: maybe 3” (it took us a long time to flip from rain to snow):IMG_0977.jpeg
 
The HRRR says that I have a decent chance of getting shutout here if the front end precip misses. The winter storm watch will probably be dropped for Abbeville over to York and south later today. For I-85 and north it's game on as usual.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’m getting December 2018 vibes but different because there’s not going to be the typical Rain/snow battle zone. It will be a snow/ice battle zone that will sag south 50-100 miles. Atypical low level cold with this one (IF models are correct) Something we’re not used to seeing these days.

Here was the HRRR the day before. JuicyView attachment 161752
What I got: maybe 3” (it took us a long time to flip from rain to snow):View attachment 161754
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Setup is way different because 2018 was a CAD like event exclusively. I remember GA got completely shut out there. This one is a far different setup with the cold supply so it may not be as accurate. Fighting CAD for cold almost always fails when it's your only cold source.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Setup is way different because 2018 was a CAD like event exclusively. I remember GA got completely shut out there. This one is a far different setup with the cold supply so it may not be as accurate. Fighting CAD for cold almost always fails when it's your only cold source.
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Agreed. Im expecting the wintry battle zone to be broad with this one but the snow zone should end up about the same imo
 
This trended pretty much exactly how I thought for the ATL area. I was just skeptical of this set up all along. This is not how the Atlanta gets it's snowstorms. It relied way too much on the antecedent air mass being cold enough for snow and not being eroded too fast for meaningful accumulations. We live in the south close to the GOM. Unfortunately, you have to expect that the warm nose will be stout and powerful. Even Dallas as we speak is struggling a bit with temperatures and the warm nose and they have better dynamics on their side.
 
What's better? .8 inches of liquid... starting off as snow(2-3inches) with significant sleet and ice afterwards, but everything frozen.

Or .4 inches of liquid, that stays mainly all snow and you get 4 inches.

That's the dilemma presented for the upstate between the Hrrr and the Euro.

I'm not gonna hate on either scenario.
 
rburrel2 said:
What's better? .8 inches of liquid... starting off as snow(2-3inches) with significant sleet and ice afterwards, but everything frozen.

Or .4 inches of liquid, that stays mainly all snow and you get 4 inches.

That's the dilemma presented for the upstate between the Hrrr and the GFS/Euro.

I'm not gonna hate on either scenario.
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Option two is almost always gone quicker.
 
rburrel2 said:
What's better? .8 inches of liquid... starting off as snow(2-3inches) with significant sleet and ice afterwards, but everything frozen.

Or .4 inches of liquid, that stays mainly all snow and you get 4 inches.

That's the dilemma presented for the upstate between the Hrrr and the Euro.

I'm not gonna hate on either scenario.
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Option 1 100%. My Personal Perfect Storm would be 6-8” SN / 1” Sleet / 1/4” ICE


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rburrel2 said:
What's better? .8 inches of liquid... starting off as snow(2-3inches) with significant sleet and ice afterwards, but everything frozen.

Or .4 inches of liquid, that stays mainly all snow and you get 4 inches.

That's the dilemma presented for the upstate between the Hrrr and the Euro.

I'm not gonna hate on either scenario.
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Option 1 is higher impact. Whether it’s better is up to personal taste. Overall, I’d probably take option 1 but I do understand the draw of an all-snow event, too. But option 1 will stick around longer which I like, plus maybe offer some sledding opportunities.
 
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