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Misc Cold Season Complaining

1300m said:
Yes I do. And have. It may not happen, but I'm looking at H5 not the surface. If the H5 northern stream interactions go the way the NAM is showing, I definitely believe it and I posted about this earlier. It all starts to unravel with increased wind aloft eroding the insitu CAD allowing the wedge front to erode and the surface low to track inland along it. We're going down a rabbit hole that may not be this deep - but it also may be. Interesting 12-24 hours of model runs for sure coming up.
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Man I appreciate the ---- out of your always level headed and science backed posts.
 
SimeonNC said:
I'm actually legit upset, three years of nothing, spent a week tracking this only for it to go poof within a couple model runs.
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Okay I’m not diminishing how you feel but over *this* event? You’ll learn this over time but if it doesn’t work out it doesn’t even make my top 15.
 
BullCityWx said:
Okay I’m not diminishing how you feel but over *this* event? You’ll learn this over time but if it doesn’t work out it doesn’t even make my top 15.
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Maybe my 50 year old self is guilty of living in the past winter successes, but a 4-5 year drought will make you upset over losing a 2 inch snowstorm. I don’t blame him. Now being stuck in Chatham in 93 is my number 1!!!
 
BullCityWx said:
Man I appreciate the ---- out of your always level headed and science backed posts.
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I appreciate that. I hope everyone knows - I want this worse than anyone on here probably. I literally went to school for six years because of my love for snow -- and I hate math! I don't even like thunderstorms lol. I am a complete winter weather nut. But I always try my hardest to separate my feelings and wants from what I'm seeing. I'm certainly not always right, that's for sure and never try to pretend to be. This pattern looked like solid gold when we first saw it coming into range, but it went to 💩 and we've been hanging on by a thread ever since. I will completely admit that I started thinking today that maybe that northern stream driving in would stay far enough east to keep the height field suppressed so we could get a light event, which was our only path (and it yet may, I hope and pray it does).
 
1300m said:
I appreciate that. I hope everyone knows - I want this worse than anyone on here probably. I literally went to school for six years because of my love for snow -- and I hate math! I don't even like thunderstorms lol. I am a complete winter weather nut. But I always try my hardest to separate my feelings and wants from what I'm seeing. I'm certainly not always right, that's for sure and never try to pretend to be. This pattern looked like solid gold when we first saw it coming into range, but it went to 💩 and we've been hanging on by a thread ever since. I will completely admit that I started thinking today that maybe that northern stream driving in would stay far enough east to keep the height field suppressed so we could get a light event, which was our only path (and it yet may, I hope and pray it does).
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The effort you put into this tells me how bad you want it. Just wanted to be sure that you, @ILMRoss, @bouncycorn @WxGSO and others how much I appreciate your content. You don’t get this much contact in really any other hobby with the professionals and yall take a lot of ----.
 
IMBY you have to be able to smell the sleet to get the best rates…some of you are familiar with that. That’s where I feel like I’m at right now.
 
What is frustrating is why models don't bake in the NW trend from the get go. Every storm it's the same. We get hooked in with the exicting early model runs only to feel dispair 2-3 days out when things shift north (almost like clockwork)
 
Why is everyone upset ? NAM is still a good winter storm…. Front end Thump of 1-2” then 1/4” ICE on top? Ummm hell yes. Y’all acting like 2M temps gonna be 35-40 now…. No just a different type of Precip. And if anything, the more amped the more Precip


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tractor girl said:
What is frustrating is why models don't bake in the NW trend from the get go. Every storm it's the same. We get hooked in with the exicting early model runs only to feel dispair 2-3 days out when things shift north (almost like clockwork)
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This! You think there would have been an update by now.


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tractor girl said:
What is frustrating is why models don't bake in the NW trend from the get go. Every storm it's the same. We get hooked in with the exicting early model runs only to feel dispair 2-3 days out when things shift north (almost like clockwork)
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That's what we get for this intrest in the most unpredictable thing on Earth, winter weather ln the SE
 
chapelhillwx said:
considering how the NAM sends the low so far NW, I’m surprised how cold it is at the sfc through the I20 corridor. Would’ve thought that track would mean the surface would be a blowtorch.
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It’s so unbelievable to me, that I’m inclined to believe it’s wrong (although I’ve experienced an ice storm with a cutter going on previously, but the deal there was totally different), but the RGEM has been showing this since it’s gotten into range and if the short range shows this tomorrow, you’ll need to take this as a potential outcome.

I feel like I’ve strongly implied enough that there is no chance of snow, but we’re probably a tick or two away from a mess involving ice, not snow, that my dad might have a smug smile if he sees even just one flake of snow on Friday.
 
@SD @Storm5 Do we have any of the “I got nammed t-shirts left to sell? I know we were sold out for a while but do we have a new inventory coming in? I feel like they’re going to pick up in sales.
 
Had to pull this one out of the archives. By far the biggest warm nose + NW trend screwjob I've ever experienced and I've been jaded ever since. This was my NWS forecast from 36 hours out.
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Here's how it verified. See western Massachusetts? That's where I was. I went from expecting 18-24" to getting 4" of sleet and some glaze. Never underestimate the warm nose
 
Not gonna lie IF we eventually lose the Euro AI it’s gonna feel like the biggest stab in the back ever, that dude has been our biggest buddy on this storm for a long time
 
Daniel Bonds is posting GRAF constantly on his social media/x. It's absolutely wrong, too.
 
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