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Misc Cold Season Complaining

I have no clue where to look to see the Euro AI faster, but I did just see that the 0z was about 50 miles away from probably starting me with a front end thump of ice and while I do get affected by CAD, I’m not in prime position for it.

That said, busts on CAD tend to save themselves for the spring unless we’re talking about January 2004, so the idea of a transfer likely doesn’t work for me. More likely a missed phase would, but still slim.
 
Great trends the last 24 hours (even with the setback of the 6z GFS). We're at least able to track the storm with viable options where we can score. But as I've said before, I don't trust anything right now. If we can get through today and tomorrow with the good options still there, I'll get really excited.
 
SD will laugh at me, but i'm more worried about suppression now. Euro trended much flatter to the point of just a novelty event, ukmet is flat and borderline on enough precip for a decent event, Euro AI looks great, but trended in that direction at 06z.
 
shoalswxlady said:
I trying to learn the different weather models. I got the gfs, euro, etc. But now i seeing people talking about the euro AL is that something new or been here all the time. Thanks to anyone that answer.
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It's relatively new and the data was just recently made public. That said it's based more on machine learning/AI. It's performed well at times and not at others
 
This one is not even a decent chase opportunity. It's a sloppy disappointing mess everywhere east of the 850 mb low which appears to track through northern MS. I'd have to go to Arkansas for a 100% chance of snow. Forget that. On to the next opportunity.
 
weatherfide said:
This one is not even a decent chase opportunity. It's a sloppy disappointing mess everywhere east of the 850 mb low which appears to track through northern MS. I'd have to go to Arkansas for a 100% chance of snow. Forget that. On to the next opportunity.
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Yep. And there is still 4-5 days for it to trend more north which it 100% will.
 
GMengel said:
The southern stream every comes ashore overnight tonight, so by 12z tomorrow it will be sampled. Unfortunately the northern piece won't hit Canada until the 12z Wednesday cycle. Could be one of those storms with big swings only a couple days before it hits.


Also hey everyone i'm new here :)
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He made it on! Welcome Gerald!
 
I dunno about this CMC run, I'd effectively say it's a miss even if it works later because it gets buried initially due to no NS interaction on the first wave.

But I can't say I'm surprised that it produced even more widespread ice as it feels like we've been threatening it on these runs.
 
rburrel2 said:
We finally get a good storm modeled at day 5,everybody is worried about it being too strong and too much waa... and then we watch it go poof over the next 24hrs. Tell me this isn't going to happen.
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Just make it thru tomorrow night with a shot. That’s all I’m asking
 
rburrel2 said:
We finally get a good storm modeled at day 5,everybody is worried about it being too strong and too much waa... and then we watch it go poof over the next 24hrs. Tell me this isn't going to happen.
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That's not gonna happen burrel! Sampling tomorrow and it gets even better!
 
The Ukmet brings a general 1-3 inches of snow in I-20 in East Central GA and SC and 3-5 inches for Atlanta metro. Other model bring a Ice storm or atleast within a few degree shy of that in those same areas. I feel accumulationing snow is unlikely for those areas, unless we get very lucky, but may need to keep a eye on for a possible Ice Storm.
 
If the UKMET had shown something like it did earlier in the 180-240 range then whatever but we are getting to a point in the modeling where a lot of these solutions cannot be discounted completely. My weenie level is peaking. Have not had a potential storm to track at this range in a long time.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Model performance has been pretty damn embarrassing if I’m keeping it real. Wild swings every run
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I go back and forth on this. On one hand, yes, the run to run variations are frustrating. But when you think about the fact that the signal was there for a favorable pattern 10+ days in advance, that is pretty impressive. Not sure what it would take to get better at predicting 10+ days of a chaotic system..... we have the processing power, so more data points maybe?
 
I’m sure this has been asked, or discussed but do models account for snowpack to the north when it comes to temps? Sorry if so
 
Usmeagle2005 said:
I’m sure this has been asked, or discussed but do models account for snowpack to the north when it comes to temps? Sorry if so
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I think some models are better than others at picking up on it and/or predicting it. One of the maps posted earlier clearly showed 2m temps being affected by snow cover. Quite a few folks on here expect the passing of the current storm to help solidify predictions for the 9th-12th storm, but that seems to be debated a good bit.
 
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