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Misc Cold Season Complaining

Tracking systems in the long range always needs to be tempered with lots of caution. Burned way to many times over the years. Its so easy to get the fix on a few models that line up just to loose all hope. But thats the rush that feed this fire we look for during what little winter time we have in this area.
 
Shawn said:
Please stop torturing yourselves, lol.

On a real note, every time these epic patterns and events show up on modeling, it makes the next one that much easier to ignore or be pessimistic about.

I get a lot of crap from my Midlands bros about being so pessimistic and almost troll posting about it not snowing around here etc.

The truth is, it's just the hard truth the majority of time.

This threat actually had me thinking that the i10 to I20 corridors had a legitimate chance (not even mby) and it grinds my gears that I let myself believe in that.

I guess it's easy to start to believe when you start involving less than stellar hype models (AI) and instead, muddy up the actual picture.

These AI models don't have ensemble suites that matter at all. Hell, the AI models are a hypothetical mess to begin with.
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Objectivity, unfortunately, is ridiculed around here sometimes. Most want "you" to be the captain of the cheer squad...
 
Shawn said:
When all is said and done, I think it's time to start putting AI models in the clown/banter threads.

They're not good and are leading to mass confusion.
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To be fair they've been just as consistent as the other models. I'm not so sure the issue is with model type or even classic model vs another classic model. I think the issue is tracking systems 16 days out and thinking with any seriousness that any device will have a clue how things will end up unfolding.
 
Rain Cold said:
To be fair they've been just as consistent as the other models. I'm not so sure the issue is with model type or even classic model vs another classic model. I think the issue is tracking systems 16 days out and thinking with any seriousness that any device will have a clue how things will end up unfolding.
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Seems to me that they have been keeping hope alive when the others sucked etc. basically used as a tool to keep following a threat with obvious temperature issues.

Supposedly the AI is still way colder or something, I don't even look at them now.
 
I have the strongest support from both the GEFS 14/20 members and EPS 30/50 members but you’d think we were toast. Long way to go here
 
Parker said:
I have the strongest support from both the GEFS 14/20 members and EPS 30/50 members but you’d think we were toast. Long way to go here
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The issue is the region all needs something different so when people talk from separate regions of the SE, ie Alabama vs Southern GA or Northern NC etc, it's different.
 
Shawn said:
Seems to me that they have been keeping hope alive when the others sucked etc. basically used as a tool to keep following a threat with obvious temperature issues.

Supposedly the AI is still way colder or something, I don't even look at them now.
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The GFS just 2 runs ago was pretty good, I thought.
 
SimeonNC said:
We are literally doing the "It's over!", "We're so back!" meme with every model run lol.

I went to sleep with everyone being optimistic, I wake up and now everyone is dooming about the 06z suite.
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Right now we are back from being back, but most likely later today we will be back to being back. Tale as old as time.
 
SimeonNC said:
We are literally doing the "It's over!", "We're so back!" meme with every model run lol.

I went to sleep with everyone being optimistic, I wake up and now everyone is dooming about the 06z suite.
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This is the way. The problem comes if it’s so over for like 4-6 straight runs
 
This ride isn’t fun anymore. Everything is stupid. I’m going to the shooting range. Eff all this noise.
 
SimeonNC said:
We are literally doing the "It's over!", "We're so back!" meme with every model run lol.

I went to sleep with everyone being optimistic, I wake up and now everyone is dooming about the 06z suite.
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Well it's a little more than that. 6z Gfs went to rain, 0z Euro went to rain, 0z Ukmet went to rain. It went from suppressed to rain real quick on the operationals. Ensembles still more suppressed I think so there's hope. But we've been here before, yada yada.
 
Storm5 said:
The complaining about Temps in the main thread is annoying AF . Its the south all our snows seem to always be borderline . Be happy there is something to track . Jeez
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I pay that no attention, I've been around here in upstate SC for quite a while and I've seen many Real good snows happen here at 34° it don't take the coldest of temps to get good snow storms
 
Storm5 said:
The complaining about Temps in the main thread is annoying AF . Its the south all our snows seem to always be borderline . Be happy there is something to track . Jeez
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Surface temps legit only matters if it's like 40 degrees at the surface and evap cooling is needed. 32-34F isn't marginal temps imo lol
 
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