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Misc Cold Season Complaining

Some of my NC State buddies may recall the phrase SSUPO
(Scared sh*tless until proven otherwise)
 
griteater said:
UKMet is kind of bad in all ways. Misses the phase with baja wave and wave digging into the S Plains is on the weak side, and it's warm across the south

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Thank goodness it’s just the UKMet
 
SC, outside the Upstate is kaput with this "could have been". snow chance. Everything is pointing against it, here. Temperatures being the main issue.

The GFS and Euro recent runs are predominantly rain.
 
CAE have a perfect forecast discussion:

By late week, uncertainty continues over some potential frozen
precip. Guidance has trended slightly drier through this period
across the EC and GEFS members, but there is some potential as a
shortwave trough ejects from the Southwest CONUS and phases with
the primary longwave trough over the Eastern US. This is a
highly tricky setup and will continue to be highly unstable run
to run. Anytime we have a slow moving deep cutoff trough that
needs to propagate east in order to phase and induce
cyclogenesis over the GoM, expect guidance to take awhile to
figure it out. Again, its a "favorable" pattern but that still
means unlikely for winter precip in the Southeast.
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Shawn said:
SC, outside the Upstate is kaput with this "could have been". snow chance. Everything is pointing against it, here. Temperatures being the main issue.

The GFS and Euro recent runs are predominantly rain.
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Amazing. Record cold to this. Shocker.
 
atlwx said:
I don’t know about y’all, but I’m loving the heck out of all the nail biting. It’s been years since there was this much excitement and drama. It’s fun. And it’s a reminder that the point of the dance isn’t to get the end.

Epic failure is likely. Devastation looms. But WHAT IF?!

How long has been since we’ve had that? I know we’ve had silly, little maybes the past decade (or what seems like). I’ve had an entire and amazing career change since the last I’ve known this child like, wide eyed excitement. So…. since right before the summer of 2018.

Enjoy the dance. Hopefully this next week continues to feel this way. We can’t know if we go back to the doldrums of lame and outside chances that everyone knows will fail, but it’s all we have.

I’m praying hard for a 2011 scenario (a glorious, Miller A). I’d give anything to see the lead up to that on TW again (and the white Christmas right before). But as I understand it, that was all lost. (Please let me know if this assumption is wrong).

This feels something like the lead up to that. Something I truly haven’t felt in a long time. A long time.

Enjoy it. Seriously. Stop jumping off cliffs. Stop dying with each model run. Joy is here now. And it can never be taken away. Even with an almost certain failure in the end. Because. WHAT IF!?

Enjoy the ride!

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mentally preparing myself to watch West of the Apps get another Winter Storm.

Honestly wouldn’t mind missing to the North like Charlotte & GSP. That would just feel like an average Winter. But to miss to Nashville & Huntsville & Memphis & all that again… good lord
 
Shawn said:
SC, outside the Upstate is kaput with this "could have been". snow chance. Everything is pointing against it, here. Temperatures being the main issue.

The GFS and Euro recent runs are predominantly rain.
Click to expand...

EPS trend says most are toast. Maybe Tennessee and Kentucky may survive.
 
I wonder how much of this is due to our MJO farting around in the null stage? I don’t pretend to be some massive expert on that, but the curve back is something I’ve seen.
 
Based on last night and this mourning model trends, this appears to has the looks of a Dallas-Shreveport winter storm. Feel like those areas average more snow nowadays compared to even Raleigh-Charlotte-Spartanburg, let alone Atlanta-Augusta-Columbia.
 
I live south of I-20 in Georgia, in the 1990’s and early 2000’s we would get quite a few snow storms. In 2014 and 2017 I got sleet while those a few miles north got snow. I haven’t seen a snowflake in a while and I’m not getting any younger. After the model runs last night I’m darn near depressed! S@rew it all! I hate you weather!
 
Please stop torturing yourselves, lol.

On a real note, every time these epic patterns and events show up on modeling, it makes the next one that much easier to ignore or be pessimistic about.

I get a lot of crap from my Midlands bros about being so pessimistic and almost troll posting about it not snowing around here etc.

The truth is, it's just the hard truth the majority of time.

This threat actually had me thinking that the i10 to I20 corridors had a legitimate chance (not even mby) and it grinds my gears that I let myself believe in that.

I guess it's easy to start to believe when you start involving less than stellar hype models (AI) and instead, muddy up the actual picture.

These AI models don't have ensemble suites that matter at all. Hell, the AI models are a hypothetical mess to begin with.
 
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