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Pattern Caperil 2021

NickyBGuarantee said:
I want WEDGESSSSS
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That’s going to be one hell of a cold front on Wednesday ... everyone’s going to feel it when that thing rolls through .. pretty big temp drops along with some good gusts I’m sure
 
Today's going to be an interesting day, to see if the stratus manages to survive into DFW behind the cold front.

The Hi-Res models mixes it out before it gets here, but FWD is a bit more bearish with their forecast, calling for increasing clouds.

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Brent said:
In theory I guess but I'm wondering if we just skip spring and go straight to heat lol

It's gonna be hot eventually that's one thing about the south
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How's the leaf out coming along up on Tulsa?

Fortunately, in DFW, virtually all of the leaves were able to fully bloom before this recent spell of cool temps the past week.
 
We have interesting weather for the next 5-7 days. First we have the mid/late week frost/freeze potential and then hopefully a good rain event this weekend. We are truly getting dry now.
from RAH:
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 AM Tuesday...

Thursday through Friday: Surface high pressure will build into and
across the area during this time frame, resulting in dry weather and
below normal temps. High temps late week will generally be in the
60s, with a few lower 70s possible on Friday (the warmer day). Low
temps on Friday morning will again be in the 30s, with even a light
freeze possible across some of the usual cold spots across the
northern half of the area. Thus, its likely a freeze warning or
frost advisory will be need in later period for Thursday
night/Friday morning.

Friday night through Monday: Surface high pressure will quickly
shift offshore late Friday into Friday night as s/w disturbance
approaches the area from the west. Rain/showers will quickly spread
into the area on Saturday with an in-situ CAD airmass developing.
Thus, will lower high temps for Saturday, especially across the
Piedmont. For now will go with high temps ranging from the lower 60s
northwest to the lower 70s southeast. It`s very possibly that temps will
remain in the 50s across the Piedmont on Saturday,
with good wetting rain. However, given the lower temps will be dependent on
the timing of the precip will only lower high temps a category or
two. The area of precip will begin to shift off the north and east
on Sunday morning, with decreasing cloud cover and temps rebounding
into the 60s and 70s for highs. Surface high pressure will move
across the area on Sunday night into Monday, resulting in dry
conditions with highs generally in the lower to mid 70s, after low
temps in the 40s Monday morning.

&&
 
SPC already talking about 15% in the D7-8 range for OK/TX :oops:
Deterministic medium-range guidance is in surprisingly good
agreement in depicting another upper trough ejecting from the
western CONUS across the Plains around Day 7/Monday into Day
8/Tuesday. Substantial low-level moisture return may occur ahead of
this feature across a part of the southern Plains. Assuming
sufficient low-level moisture does indeed materialize, then the
presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable timing of the
ejecting upper trough suggest an organized severe risk may develop
on Tuesday across some portion of OK/TX. A 15% severe area may need
to be introduced for next Tuesday as soon as the next outlook update
if run-to-run model consistency continues.
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