LickWx
Member
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Pattern Caperil 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
From what I heard a weak El Niño is becoming possible next winter, get ready for more cold rain
LickWx
Member
Oooooo! Best part about that is with El Niño we get that nice blocking high , no true polar air generally . Combined with the warm Arctic and warm north ! Mmmmm maybe very mild and rainy indeed lol. Make it super El Niño!
Eh most of the arctic is still below freezing
LickWx
Member
Yes but spring is key. If it’s warm it’s essentially priming the Arctic for a big melt season . Its a positive feedback as well more snow melt on the lower latitude lands means easier heat transport further north meaning early melt of the snow on the ice and more time under direct sun meaning more open water! Plus the rivers in the high Arctic melt earlier pouring fresh water in earlier and pushing ice out .
?that noreaster on the Euro though
Yay another 50 degree day like we didn’t just get 4 straight months of that, even tho 70s is much better yay for 50s and nighttime damaging frost, but 50s is better for outside activities I guess ??
Atleast it will bring a wetter pattern! It’s been so dry for months?
NoSnowATL
Member
So that was yesterday? If so it’s wrong. We hit 70.
Frost this time of year (outside mountains) is not highly abnormal, but it is late. From RAH:
High pressure will bring dry and cooler conditions for Thursday and
Friday. Thicknesses will be lowest on Thursday morning and skies
will be clear, so leaned toward the colder side of model blends and
close to GFS/ECMWF ensembles for temperatures, with forecast lows in
the mid-to-upper-30s. Thus some patchy frost will be possible,
especially in the usual cooler spots. Highs Thursday will be 5-10
degrees below normal (lower-60s north to upper-60s south).
Temperatures will start to moderate on Friday as the high pressure
system moves offshore, with forecast lows in the upper-30s to lower-
40s and highs in the lower-to-mid-70s.
High pressure will bring dry and cooler conditions for Thursday and
Friday. Thicknesses will be lowest on Thursday morning and skies
will be clear, so leaned toward the colder side of model blends and
close to GFS/ECMWF ensembles for temperatures, with forecast lows in
the mid-to-upper-30s. Thus some patchy frost will be possible,
especially in the usual cooler spots. Highs Thursday will be 5-10
degrees below normal (lower-60s north to upper-60s south).
Temperatures will start to moderate on Friday as the high pressure
system moves offshore, with forecast lows in the upper-30s to lower-
40s and highs in the lower-to-mid-70s.
The pattern looks to change to warmer after the 25th, and it seems that relatively cool weather over the eastern U.S is going to end soon and switch to somewhat sustained normal to above normal for the beginning of May.
Yeah GEFS is really selling that EPS not so much, EPS looks better for a active pattern tho
^ The bottom photo reminds me of one of Larry Cosgrove's newsletters stating his concerns for a giant ridge from the west coast connecting with the Bermuda high, as a possible configuration for this summer.
cd2play
Member
That would mean a hot and dry summer.
BHS1975
Member
All that cold water pouring into the NW Atlantic will help reinforce the cold anomalies as well.
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36.5 this morning, the way things look I'll challenge subfreezing temps next week ugh
I remember when globals were trying to show upper 50s today
Not happening
Not happening
Well they did have rain today too which would have been nice