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Pattern August '22

Unless things change dramatically the severe threat is probably over locally
As you mentioned, a very small area of potential severe threat....

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It was for the level 2 area that saw numerous severe thunderstorm warnings
Really about 40 miles made all the difference yesterday. Had we not seen the morning disturbance with rain and debris clouds the warm front would have likely been around I40 and overlapped with the best kinematics. I'm still a little surprised there wasn't a cell or 2 elevated over the cool sector but that splitter along the nc/SC border was enough for me to not really want a part of that
 
Really about 40 miles made all the difference yesterday. Had we not seen the morning disturbance with rain and debris clouds the warm front would have likely been around I40 and overlapped with the best kinematics. I'm still a little surprised there wasn't a cell or 2 elevated over the cool sector but that splitter along the nc/SC border was enough for me to not really want a part of that
I thought it was all done for, but had a random little cell give me another quarter last night. She was a juicy ol Gal. Poured so loud it worm both my wife and I KFCX - Super-Res Reflectivity Tilt 1, 11_26 PM.png
 
Hopefully will be our last 100
View attachment 120726

If this verifies it probably will because climo is increasingly against it towards September View attachment 120727
I’ll be back in Oklahoma on Thursday. Looks like I will miss the worst of summers heat out there.

Hopefully we can get in on some of those rain chances late this weekend. Rainfall totals south of I-40 the past 60 days haven’t been been looking so good.6CADE3D8-3CA4-4ABC-9566-EE83968E45CB.png
 
I thought it was all done for, but had a random little cell give me another quarter last night. She was a juicy ol Gal. Poured so loud it worm both my wife and I View attachment 120729
The next 10 days look good for us to keep the positive momentum going in the rain dept
 
I’ll be back in Oklahoma on Thursday. Looks like I will miss the worst of summers heat out there.

Hopefully we can get in on some of those rain chances late this weekend. Rainfall totals south of I-40 the past 60 days haven’t been been looking so good.View attachment 120728

Yeah you are lucky it's been a rough stretch here. 20 something days above 100

I think unless a hurricane goes east of us(usually makes it hot and dry again)... Also we gotta get a hurricane first ? we might get lucky especially with any prolonged extreme heat
 
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