Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook '17

[Webberweather53]

Will that increase our chances for Hurricanes or less? Plus, will it have effect on the steering current this Season? Thanks.

The continuation of this pattern will only increase the probability for more TC activity in the Atlantic, however it carries relatively limited information wrt the mean steering flow. Conducive setups for weak northeasterly trade winds and low SAL are weakly correlated at best to active landfalling years on the SE US coast, more information is needed regarding the behavior of the extratropical waveguide and for ex the concomitant Rossby Waves breaking into the tropics/subtropics

 

[Webberweather53]

The European is definitely picking up the pace wrt TC activity in the Atlantic after next week. In addition to potential TC development in association with the central America monsoon gyre, there's been some intermittent consistency in most of the guidance and hints that a series of particularly robust AEWs will emerge from the west African coast sometime over the coming week or so as a pair of strong CCKWs pass thru the east Atlantic and Africa. While, TCG is very unlikely atm, a TC somehow develops east of the Lesser Antilles before July arrives, that would put this year into nearly uncharted territory, with only 1933 (the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record), and 1979 (while only having ~ 91 points of ACE, about 20 tropical depressions developed in this season) observing a TC develop east of the antilles before July.

 

[Webberweather53]

Here's a comparison of the equatorial east Atlantic-Africa uninterpolated OLR from NCEP R1 for this past month vs 1979-2016. The West African Monsoon (WAM) is moving ahead of schedule this year as denoted by the poleward displacement of low OLR this year vs the 1979-2016 climatological period... The more rapid onset of the WAM is indicative of a stronger AEW train and may serve as harbinger for things to come...

 

[Webberweather53]

 

[Brent]

NOAA going all in on the new seasonal forecast

Forecasters are now predicting a higher likelihood of an above-normal season, and they increased the predicted number of named storms and major hurricanes. The season has the potential to be extremely active, and could be the most active since 2010.

Forecasters now say there is a 60-percent chance of an above-normal season (compared to the May prediction of 45 percent chance), with 14-19 named storms (increased from the May predicted range of 11-17) and 2-5 major hurricanes (increased from the May predicted range of 2-4).

“The wind and air patterns in the area of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean where many storms develop are very conducive to an above-normal season. This is in part because the chance of an El Nino forming, which tends to prevent storms from strengthening, has dropped significantly from May.”

http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/e...tor-of-active-atlantic-hurricane-season-ahead

 

[Shawn]

18
7 hurricane
3 major

Well, I am not doing horrible considering I'm not very good with the Tropical stuff.