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Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook '17 (1 Viewer)

Storm5

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#2
WilkesboroDude said:
Stay tuned to the early Hurricane season forecasts this Spring. Discuss the latest ENSO state. 

What's your prediction?

Storm Count
Hurricanes
Major Hurricanes
12
5 hurricane
1 major

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pcbjr

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#8
I'd like to add a category - US landfalls.

Wild guess - I'm going for 3 this far out (including TS's) - late June, Sept and Sept
 
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#14
Probably worth mentioning here, in seeing how much these forecasts are passed around and treated as gospel by many mets/wx enthusiasts alike, the ECMWF suite has a high SLPa bias in the tropical Atlantic at this lead... Hence, take it's current SLPa forecast for the tropical Atlantic during the heart of the upcoming hurricane season w/ a big grain of salt.



ps2png-atls01-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e824bb75-Trmnab.png
 
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#16
Consensus is starting to build that an area of disturbed weather in association with the Central America Monsoon Gyre will emerge over the eastern Pacific sometime next week as a strong MJO pulse propagates through the western hemisphere for the rest of this week and into the following week with both the GFS and Euro showing what would be Hurricane Adrian well south of the Mexican Riviera. Just a friendly reminder that hurricane season is quickly approaching...


 

pcbjr

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#20
In case anyone cares, TWC says 14 storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major, while Colorado State says 11 storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major.
I said 11, 5 and 2 months ago (up top)!

And I'll probably just as right about that as I was with my very cold February call ... :confused:
 
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#21
Really starting to get under the impression that the southwestern Atlantic near/north of the Greater Antilles and off the SE US coast is going to be a hot spot relative to the basin and long-term averages this year. Banking on an active east Pacific (which isn't much of a stretch) and of course given that we won't have a NINO anytime soon at least, probably wouldnt be a bad idea to go w/ a slightly below Caribbean and with a wet Sahel, above average Atlantic SSTs, and of course the sinking motion over the western portion of the basin, probably going to have an above normal Cape verde season with a primary track somewhere near and northeast of the Greater Antilles/PR.
 

ForsythSnow

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#22
Really starting to get under the impression that the southwestern Atlantic near/north of the Greater Antilles and off the SE US coast is going to be a hot spot relative to the basin and long-term averages this year. Banking on an active east Pacific (which isn't much of a stretch) and of course given that we won't have a NINO anytime soon at least, probably wouldnt be a bad idea to go w/ a slightly below Caribbean and with a wet Sahel, above average Atlantic SSTs, and of course the sinking motion over the western portion of the basin, probably going to have an above normal Cape verde season with a primary track somewhere near and northeast of the Greater Antilles/PR.
Yeah, we are more distant from an El-Nino than I initially thought, but we are headed towards one from what can be seen, though it may not be much. I'm not too sure about it though. I am beginning to think it will be an above average season too.
 

GaWx

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#26
We're close on our numbers!
Great minds think alike. ;)

Despite the Atlantic MDR SST warmth, I'm banking on a weak El Niño or just underneath that to make conditions more hostile than last season's weak La Niña. I based my prediction on how most weak to low end moderate El Niño seasons have gone since the satellite era started (1960's) and this includes some years with a warm MDR. Three of the last 4 weak El Niño seasons, all during the current +AMO, had 8/6/2 (2014), 9/5/2 (2006), and 12/4/2 (2002). Before that, 1994 had 7/3/0, 1986 had 6/4/0, 1979 had 9/5/2, 1977 had 6/5/1, 1976 had 10/6/2, 1968 had 8/4/0, and 1963 had 9/7/2. There were two notable very active exceptions, 2004 and 1969. So, 10 of the last 12 weak to low end moderate Niño seasons had fairly near or weaker than my prediction. So, that's the background research I used to predict 9/5/2. It is by no means wish-casting in case anyone might be wondering. Of course, it would be helpful to this prediction if we can actually get a weak to low end moderate El Niño.
 
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pcbjr

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#27
Great minds think alike. ;)

Despite the Atlantic MDR SST warmth, I'm banking on a weak El Niño or just underneath that to make conditions more hostile than last season's weak La Niña. I based my prediction on how most weak to low end moderate El Niño seasons have gone since the satellite era started (1960's) and this includes some years with a warm MDR. Three of the last 4 weak El Niño seasons, all during the current +AMO, had 8/6/2 (2014), 9/5/2 (2006), and 12/4/2 (2002). Before that, 1994 had 7/3/0, 1986 had 6/4/0, 1979 had 9/5/2, 1977 had 6/5/1, 1976 had 10/6/2, 1968 had 8/4/0, and 1963 had 9/7/2. There were two notable very active exceptions, 2004 and 1969. So, 10 of the last 12 weak to low end moderate Niño seasons had fairly near or weaker than my prediction. So, that's the background research I used to predict 9/5/2. It is by no means wish-casting.
I am flattered!
Mine is not wish casting either, but in part comes from a wholly different angle. When my shoulder heals and I can type more than 3 sentences, I'll explain!
Suffice it to say, this is fun!
Phil
 

GaWx

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#28
I am flattered!
Mine is not wish casting either, but in part comes from a wholly different angle. When my shoulder heals and I can type more than 3 sentences, I'll explain!
Suffice it to say, this is fun!
Phil
I post on another BB which has a contest every year. Out of 98 entries, only one is forecasting a quieter season than me!! That person is at 9/3/1 vs my 9/5/2. Only one other person has 4 or fewer H's. Nobody else has fewer than 10 NS or fewer than 2 majors.
 

pcbjr

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#29
I post on another BB which has a contest every year. Out of 98 entries, only one is forecasting a quieter season than me!! That person is at 9/3/1 vs my 9/5/2. Only one other person has 4 or fewer H's. Nobody else has fewer than 10 NS or fewer than 2 majors.
We'll see; I'm going over to American now to see if that is the BB - just don't tell the mods there or here ... LOL

~~~~~~~~~~~~


Done - I escaped unscathed ...
 

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