Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook '17

[WilkesboroDude]

Stay tuned to the early Hurricane season forecasts this Spring. Discuss the latest ENSO state. 

What's your prediction?

Storm Count
Hurricanes
Major Hurricanes

 

[Storm5]

Stay tuned to the early Hurricane season forecasts this Spring. Discuss the latest ENSO state. 

What's your prediction?

Storm Count
Hurricanes
Major Hurricanes

12
5 hurricane
1 major

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

 

[Shawn]

18
7 hurricane
3 major

 

[accu35]

18
7 hurricane
3 major

Dang that's actived lol

 

[Shawn]

Dang that's actived lol

Yeah, those numbers are way too high I am sure.

 

[pcbjr]

11

5

2

 

[Shawn]

11

5

2

I like that. I said 18 total. Not sure what I was thinking with current info I have. But 11 total storms in the ATL sound great.

 

[pcbjr]

I'd like to add a category - US landfalls.

Wild guess - I'm going for 3 this far out (including TS's) - late June, Sept and Sept

 

[whatalife]

I'll go with
8
6 Canes
2 Major

 

[accu35]

12 name storms 2 major, 4 Cane, 6 TS's is my guess.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Why not.
16 named storms
7 hurricanes
3 major
3 landfalls
Edited back to original.

 

[JtSmarts]

I'll make my prediction when we have more of an idea of how the atmosphere is going to be. I'll gladly sacrifice the hurricane to El Nino if that means we'll have a better 17-18 winter.

 

[skywatcher]

12 named storms
6 canes
2 major
2 US landfall (TS or Cane)

 

[Webberweather53]

Probably worth mentioning here, in seeing how much these forecasts are passed around and treated as gospel by many mets/wx enthusiasts alike, the ECMWF suite has a high SLPa bias in the tropical Atlantic at this lead... Hence, take it's current SLPa forecast for the tropical Atlantic during the heart of the upcoming hurricane season w/ a big grain of salt.

 

[Storm5]

http://w1.weather.gov/data/NHC/PNSNHC


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[Webberweather53]

Consensus is starting to build that an area of disturbed weather in association with the Central America Monsoon Gyre will emerge over the eastern Pacific sometime next week as a strong MJO pulse propagates through the western hemisphere for the rest of this week and into the following week with both the GFS and Euro showing what would be Hurricane Adrian well south of the Mexican Riviera. Just a friendly reminder that hurricane season is quickly approaching...

 

[Rain Cold]

14 named (4 total landfalling named storms)
6 canes (2 landfalling canes)
2 majors (0 landfalling majors)

 

[Webberweather53]

The Atlantic SSTA configuration since March looks considerably better this year vs 2013-16...

 

[ForsythSnow]

In case anyone cares, TWC says 14 storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major, while Colorado State says 11 storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major.

 

[pcbjr]

In case anyone cares, TWC says 14 storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major, while Colorado State says 11 storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major.

I said 11, 5 and 2 months ago (up top)!

And I'll probably just as right about that as I was with my very cold February call ...

 

[Webberweather53]

Really starting to get under the impression that the southwestern Atlantic near/north of the Greater Antilles and off the SE US coast is going to be a hot spot relative to the basin and long-term averages this year. Banking on an active east Pacific (which isn't much of a stretch) and of course given that we won't have a NINO anytime soon at least, probably wouldnt be a bad idea to go w/ a slightly below Caribbean and with a wet Sahel, above average Atlantic SSTs, and of course the sinking motion over the western portion of the basin, probably going to have an above normal Cape verde season with a primary track somewhere near and northeast of the Greater Antilles/PR.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Really starting to get under the impression that the southwestern Atlantic near/north of the Greater Antilles and off the SE US coast is going to be a hot spot relative to the basin and long-term averages this year. Banking on an active east Pacific (which isn't much of a stretch) and of course given that we won't have a NINO anytime soon at least, probably wouldnt be a bad idea to go w/ a slightly below Caribbean and with a wet Sahel, above average Atlantic SSTs, and of course the sinking motion over the western portion of the basin, probably going to have an above normal Cape verde season with a primary track somewhere near and northeast of the Greater Antilles/PR.

Yeah, we are more distant from an El-Nino than I initially thought, but we are headed towards one from what can be seen, though it may not be much. I'm not too sure about it though. I am beginning to think it will be an above average season too.

 

[ForsythSnow]

NOAA is forecasting 11-17 storms, 5-9 hurricanes, and 2-4 major hurricanes, and an overall above average season.

 

[GaWx]

I'm going with a much quieter season than last season's insanity: 9/5/2

 

[pcbjr]

I'm going with a much quieter season than last season's insanity: 9/5/2

We're close on our numbers!

 

[GaWx]

We're close on our numbers!

Great minds think alike.

Despite the Atlantic MDR SST warmth, I'm banking on a weak El Niño or just underneath that to make conditions more hostile than last season's weak La Niña. I based my prediction on how most weak to low end moderate El Niño seasons have gone since the satellite era started (1960's) and this includes some years with a warm MDR. Three of the last 4 weak El Niño seasons, all during the current +AMO, had 8/6/2 (2014), 9/5/2 (2006), and 12/4/2 (2002). Before that, 1994 had 7/3/0, 1986 had 6/4/0, 1979 had 9/5/2, 1977 had 6/5/1, 1976 had 10/6/2, 1968 had 8/4/0, and 1963 had 9/7/2. There were two notable very active exceptions, 2004 and 1969. So, 10 of the last 12 weak to low end moderate Niño seasons had fairly near or weaker than my prediction. So, that's the background research I used to predict 9/5/2. It is by no means wish-casting in case anyone might be wondering. Of course, it would be helpful to this prediction if we can actually get a weak to low end moderate El Niño.

 

[pcbjr]

Great minds think alike.

Despite the Atlantic MDR SST warmth, I'm banking on a weak El Niño or just underneath that to make conditions more hostile than last season's weak La Niña. I based my prediction on how most weak to low end moderate El Niño seasons have gone since the satellite era started (1960's) and this includes some years with a warm MDR. Three of the last 4 weak El Niño seasons, all during the current +AMO, had 8/6/2 (2014), 9/5/2 (2006), and 12/4/2 (2002). Before that, 1994 had 7/3/0, 1986 had 6/4/0, 1979 had 9/5/2, 1977 had 6/5/1, 1976 had 10/6/2, 1968 had 8/4/0, and 1963 had 9/7/2. There were two notable very active exceptions, 2004 and 1969. So, 10 of the last 12 weak to low end moderate Niño seasons had fairly near or weaker than my prediction. So, that's the background research I used to predict 9/5/2. It is by no means wish-casting.

I am flattered!
Mine is not wish casting either, but in part comes from a wholly different angle. When my shoulder heals and I can type more than 3 sentences, I'll explain!
Suffice it to say, this is fun!
Phil

 

[GaWx]

I am flattered!
Mine is not wish casting either, but in part comes from a wholly different angle. When my shoulder heals and I can type more than 3 sentences, I'll explain!
Suffice it to say, this is fun!
Phil

I post on another BB which has a contest every year. Out of 98 entries, only one is forecasting a quieter season than me!! That person is at 9/3/1 vs my 9/5/2. Only one other person has 4 or fewer H's. Nobody else has fewer than 10 NS or fewer than 2 majors.

 

[pcbjr]

I post on another BB which has a contest every year. Out of 98 entries, only one is forecasting a quieter season than me!! That person is at 9/3/1 vs my 9/5/2. Only one other person has 4 or fewer H's. Nobody else has fewer than 10 NS or fewer than 2 majors.

We'll see; I'm going over to American now to see if that is the BB - just don't tell the mods there or here ... LOL

~~~~~~~~~~~~


Done - I escaped unscathed ...

 

[Jeremy Camp]

My prediction

10 Named Storms
4 Hurricanes
2 Major Hurricanes

 

[pcbjr]

Let's add US landfalls to this (any named system) -

My guess is 3 - late June/early July, Sept and Sept

I'll even go out further - Gulf, Atl coast, and Atl coast (including Fla)

 

[Webberweather53]

Great minds think alike.

Despite the Atlantic MDR SST warmth, I'm banking on a weak El Niño or just underneath that to make conditions more hostile than last season's weak La Niña. I based my prediction on how most weak to low end moderate El Niño seasons have gone since the satellite era started (1960's) and this includes some years with a warm MDR. Three of the last 4 weak El Niño seasons, all during the current +AMO, had 8/6/2 (2014), 9/5/2 (2006), and 12/4/2 (2002). Before that, 1994 had 7/3/0, 1986 had 6/4/0, 1979 had 9/5/2, 1977 had 6/5/1, 1976 had 10/6/2, 1968 had 8/4/0, and 1963 had 9/7/2. There were two notable very active exceptions, 2004 and 1969. So, 10 of the last 12 weak to low end moderate Niño seasons had fairly near or weaker than my prediction. So, that's the background research I used to predict 9/5/2. It is by no means wish-casting in case anyone might be wondering. Of course, it would be helpful to this prediction if we can actually get a weak to low end moderate El Niño.

I certainly wouldn't categorize 2014 as a warm AMO year, it was neutral at best (if not slightly negative), the SSTAs in the MDR were cooler than the long-term average (1981-2015), and the Klotzbach-Gray AMO was decidedly negative until the early-mid fall (@ which point it becomes relatively futile)... The El Ninos during the mid-portions of the summer of 2002 and 2006 are unrealistically too strong compared what we are liable to observe this year, with the relative NCEP-NCAR MEI and ENS ONI rankings for both years nearing moderate territory by late summer (which is quite unlikely here), not to mention the MDR is considerably warmer this year...

May 2017 vs 2002 & 2006 (NCEP R1). If this SSTA configuration (particularly in the eastern Atlantic and near the NW coast of Africa), persists into the next month or so, it's an anti-SAL pattern as above-well above average SSTs near the Canary Islands increase PBL instability that is able to more effectively break through the trade wind inversion induced by the SAL, thereby potentially increasing the probability for tropical cyclogenesis at least in the east-central MDR by increasing low-mid level humidities.

,

 

[Webberweather53]

I certainly wouldn't categorize 2014 as a warm AMO year, it was neutral at best (if not slightly negative), the SSTAs in the MDR were cooler than the long-term average (1981-2015), and the Klotzbach-Gray AMO was decidedly negative until the early-mid fall (@ which point it becomes relatively futile)... The El Ninos during the mid-portions of the summer of 2002 and 2006 are unrealistically too strong compared what we are liable to observe this year, with the relative NCEP-NCAR MEI and ENS ONI rankings for both years nearing moderate territory by late summer (which is quite unlikely here), not to mention the MDR is considerably warmer this year...

May 2017 vs 2002 & 2006 (NCEP R1). If this SSTA configuration (particularly in the eastern Atlantic and near the NW coast of Africa), persists into the next month or so, it's an anti-SAL pattern as above-well above average SSTs near the Canary Islands increase PBL instability that is able to more effectively break through the trade wind inversion induced by the SAL, thereby potentially increasing the probability for tropical cyclogenesis at least in the east-central MDR by increasing low-mid level humidities.

View attachment 570 ,

On the other hand, local Hadley Cell expansion over the Atlantic induced in part by the warming background climate may act to stifle this normally favorable configuration by focusing upward motion over a broader region and potentially into the subtropical Atlantic yet again (as we've observed for the majority of the last several hurricane seasons)

 

[GaWx]

I certainly wouldn't categorize 2014 as a warm AMO year, it was neutral at best (if not slightly negative), the SSTAs in the MDR were cooler than the long-term average (1981-2015), and the Klotzbach-Gray AMO was decidedly negative until the early-mid fall (@ which point it becomes relatively futile)... The El Ninos during the mid-portions of the summer of 2002 and 2006 are unrealistically too strong compared what we are liable to observe this year, with the relative NCEP-NCAR MEI and ENS ONI rankings for both years nearing moderate territory by late summer (which is quite unlikely here), not to mention the MDR is considerably warmer this year...

May 2017 vs 2002 & 2006 (NCEP R1). If this SSTA configuration (particularly in the eastern Atlantic and near the NW coast of Africa), persists into the next month or so, it's an anti-SAL pattern as above-well above average SSTs near the Canary Islands increase PBL instability that is able to more effectively break through the trade wind inversion induced by the SAL, thereby potentially increasing the probability for tropical cyclogenesis at least in the east-central MDR by increasing low-mid level humidities.

Thanks, Eric, for your reply.

1. I didn't realize that about the MDR in 2014. Regardless, the AMO
was solidly warm during peak season per this table:

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.data

2. I can see why you don't think the 2002 El Niño strength is likely to be met. However, I don't know why you think that 2006 is unrealistically too strong when seeing that the current borderline weak El Niño levels are stronger than they where at this time in 2006, when Nino 3.4 weeklies were only +0.2 to +0.3.
They didn't reach borderline weak Niño til mid August.

 

[Webberweather53]

Thanks, Eric, for your reply.

1. I didn't realize that about the MDR in 2014. Regardless, the AMO
was solidly warm during peak season per this table:

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.data

2. I can see why you don't think the 2002 El Niño strength is likely to be met. However, I don't know why you think that 2006 is unrealistically too strong when seeing that the current borderline weak El Niño levels are stronger than they where at this time in 2006, when Nino 3.4 weeklies were only +0.2 to +0.3.
They didn't reach borderline weak Niño til mid August.

Sure thing, keep in mind though that this index from NOAA ESRL only analyzes the basin wide averaged, linearly detrended SSTs, while they are correlated with the AMO, it may not adequately reflect the SST tripole that's crucial to TCG in the Atlantic, not to mention it uses a very coarse (5*5 degree) OISSTv2 analysis post 1981 and the methodology of the parent SST dataset (Kaplan) has not been updated since the mid 1990s, although it provided the framework for HADISST, one of the highest quality, highest resolution SST reconstructions to date (although it too is becoming increasingly defunct and there are some issues with its tropical Pacific SSTs near the International Dateline). I used a Multivariate ENSO Index derived from NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis which uses SST, SLP, U wind, V Wind, OLR, and Precipitation to make the determination wrt the amplitude of the 2006 NINO at this time in the summer. The rankings were in moderate territory using this index. I haven't updated it in several months for various reasons, among them I've been experimenting with ways to further improve the quality of the NCEP-NCAR MEI and am trying out of a few adjustments I may decide to implement in the future...









For more information see my description and raw data of the NCEP-NCAR MEI
http://weatheradvance.com/home/weat...Index-MEI-Raw-Data-Rankings-1948-Feb-2017.txt

 

[GaWx]

Let's add US landfalls to this (any named system) -

My guess is 3 - late June/early July, Sept and Sept

I'll even go out further - Gulf, Atl coast, and Atl coast (including Fla)

Phil,
Good idea but that is such a shot in the dark since it is so hit and miss literally lol. So, I don't know if I'm going to make this guess. I'll see. I'll at least take a look at the analogs I'm using and see if I see any kind of pattern.

 

[pcbjr]

Phil,
Good idea but that is such a shot in the dark since it is so hit and miss literally lol. So, I don't know if I'm going to make this guess. I'll see. I'll at least take a look at the analogs I'm using and see if I see any kind of pattern.

Just adds a fun variable to the casino mix, IMHO is all! I'm on record for 3, but it's all gut and age and having seen it develop over many years past etc, etc ....
My juvenile a'logs say 3 btw ... but they are mine and that makes them grain of salt, for sure!

 

[ForsythSnow]

Just adds a fun variable to the casino mix, IMHO is all! I'm on record for 3, but it's all gut and age and having seen it develop over many years past etc, etc ....
My juvenile a'logs say 3 btw ... but they are mine and that makes them grain of salt, for sure!

3 is my guess as well. Hoping that if that is right, they are all depressions, but the odds are low of them all being that way.

 

[Webberweather53]

The eastern MDR is only going to continue getting warmer vs average the next several weeks. This MSLPa configuration will shut down the northeasterly trade winds and SAL, thus reducing upper layer mixing by wind stress imparted by the trades and/or stifling the blocking of incoming shortwave radiation via SAL

 

[accu35]

The eastern MDR is only going to continue getting warmer vs average the next several weeks. This MSLPa configuration will shut down the northeasterly trade winds and SAL, thus reducing upper layer mixing by wind stress imparted by the trades and/or stifling the blocking of incoming shortwave radiation via SAL
View attachment 580

Will that increase our chances for Hurricanes or less? Plus, will it have effect on the steering current this Season? Thanks.