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Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook '17

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Wilkesboro Baby
Stay tuned to the early Hurricane season forecasts this Spring. Discuss the latest ENSO state. 

What's your prediction?

Storm Count
Hurricanes
Major Hurricanes
 
WilkesboroDude said:
Stay tuned to the early Hurricane season forecasts this Spring. Discuss the latest ENSO state. 

What's your prediction?

Storm Count
Hurricanes
Major Hurricanes
12
5 hurricane
1 major

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I'd like to add a category - US landfalls.

Wild guess - I'm going for 3 this far out (including TS's) - late June, Sept and Sept
 
12 name storms 2 major, 4 Cane, 6 TS's is my guess.
 
I'll make my prediction when we have more of an idea of how the atmosphere is going to be. I'll gladly sacrifice the hurricane to El Nino if that means we'll have a better 17-18 winter.
 
Probably worth mentioning here, in seeing how much these forecasts are passed around and treated as gospel by many mets/wx enthusiasts alike, the ECMWF suite has a high SLPa bias in the tropical Atlantic at this lead... Hence, take it's current SLPa forecast for the tropical Atlantic during the heart of the upcoming hurricane season w/ a big grain of salt.

JAS-2012-16-ECMWF-SLPa-verification-1024x692.jpg


ps2png-atls01-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e824bb75-Trmnab.png
 
Consensus is starting to build that an area of disturbed weather in association with the Central America Monsoon Gyre will emerge over the eastern Pacific sometime next week as a strong MJO pulse propagates through the western hemisphere for the rest of this week and into the following week with both the GFS and Euro showing what would be Hurricane Adrian well south of the Mexican Riviera. Just a friendly reminder that hurricane season is quickly approaching...
gfs_z500_mslp_epac_36.png


ecmwf_z500_mslp_epac_11.png
 
14 named (4 total landfalling named storms)
6 canes (2 landfalling canes)
2 majors (0 landfalling majors)
 
In case anyone cares, TWC says 14 storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major, while Colorado State says 11 storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major.
I said 11, 5 and 2 months ago (up top)!

And I'll probably just as right about that as I was with my very cold February call ... :confused:
 
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