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Pattern April Chasing ???⛈⛈⛈

Vast majority of the EPS suite puts most, of any accumulating snow in the NC mtns late Monday into Tue, several have however gone full ------ and show accumulating snow into the piedmont of the Carolinas. Not even going consider the latter scenario a legitimate possibility unless/until confidence becomes high that we’ll get a beefy coastal low that brings the bulk of the heaviest precip during the overnight hours on Monday night
 
Webberweather53 said:
Vast majority of the EPS suite puts most, of any accumulating snow in the NC mtns late Monday into Tue, several have however gone full ------ and show accumulating snow into the piedmont of the Carolinas. Not even going consider the latter scenario a legitimate possibility unless/until confidence becomes high that we’ll get a beefy coastal low that brings the bulk of the heaviest precip during the overnight hours on Monday night
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Since I don't have access to the better maps, do they show the same deal as I saw for N GA or is there nothing there?
 
ForsythSnow said:
Since I don't have access to the better maps, do they show the same deal as I saw for N GA or is there nothing there?
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There were quite a few members showing snow down even to Atlanta on this suite. Even just a few to several hundred feet of additional elevation can make a monumental difference in a storm like this.
 
Webberweather53 said:
There were quite a few members showing snow down even to Atlanta on this suite. Even just a few to several hundred feet of additional elevation can make a monumental difference in a storm like this.
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Thanks. I know a few members from what I can see limit snow to just N GA and even bullseye it, and in terms of "Full ------ members" I would say 13 is the worst. Heavy snow down to Macon? Certainly not.
 
Do y'all think northeast alabama will get any snow? Crossing fingers so i get a extra day to my spring break ?
 
ICON is a bit south and develops a deformation band.
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_38.png
 
Damn this would of been even better if it was a month ago and we had the same look at H5, this could of actually been the storm that Columbia SC was looking for if it was about about 3-6 weeks ago, tuff
 
BufordWX said:
ICON has decent snow accumulation for central GA.View attachment 18101
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Why does this ICON ? show significant snow accumulating? It actually has temps plunging right to 32 soon after the precip starts as this temp map shows in the Augusta to Columbia corridor: see the “32” shown near Augusta? Remember that the ICON by all accounts I’ve read has no cold bias. As posted earlier, Augusta’s entire record going way back hasn’t even a trace of snow in April!

5146AFB7-9914-4BEB-BD71-06498FAD2EF7.png
 
GaWx said:
Why does this ICON ? show significant snow accumulating? It actually has temps plunging right to 32 soon after the precip starts as this temp map shows in the Augusta to Columbia corridor: see the “32” shown near Augusta? Remember that the ICON by all accounts I’ve read has no cold bias. As posted earlier, Augusta’s entire record going way back hasn’t even a trace of snow in April!

View attachment 18102
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Looks like it's spot on ... Ocala and south ... o_O
 
18z GFS is further ots. This is a setup where the NW trend is to be expected but with temps being a major issue I really don’t know what it is we would need to happen. There’s a reason it rarely snows in the month of April
 
If it were January this would be the one. No doubt about it unfavorite areas in the Carolinas would have a solid shot at a substantial snowstorm..but it’s not. It’s Spring.

A thin stripe of heavy wet April snow tracking through the Carolinas somewhere would be pretty cool though

Those MSLP maps are a thing of beauty ?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
If it were January this would be the one. No doubt about it unfavorite areas in the Carolinas would have a solid shot at a substantial snowstorm..but it’s not. It’s Spring.

A thin stripe of heavy wet April snow tracking through the Carolinas somewhere would be pretty cool though

Those MSLP maps are a thing of beauty ?
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Exactly, we just can’t get a damn setup like that in Jan or Feb, its bad luck, PV lobes this year has squashed everything like the carpenter ants I’ve squashed today with my foot
 
18Z FV3 ? is loltastic since it has very heavy snow up to 9” where 850’s are +5. It has temps staying near freezing in the SAV-CHS corridor with 30 on the map below at @Stormsfury . At +5 850’s even sleet would be unlikely to dominate though +5 is in ZR’s wheelhouse. But a major ZR on April Fools Day deep into SE GA and SE SC just doesn’t sound even possible. The latest major ZR there is March 2-3 of 1962 I believe and that was 50 miles inland.
69AE994B-DEC6-48D0-977E-A9A7F35AED6E.png7D41EF8E-A62E-4846-95E7-63E6B584EE5D.png1EC48AE2-354E-4DB6-A06C-B02F1C533B34.png
 
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GaWx said:
18Z FV3 ? is loltastic since it has very heavy snow up to 9” where 850’s are +5. It has temps staying near freezing in the SAV-CHS corridor. At +5 850’s even sleet would be unlikely to dominate though +5 is in ZR’s wheelhouse. But a major ZR on April Fools Day Deep into SE GA and SE SC just doesn’t sound even possible. The latest major ZR there is March 2-3 of 1962 I believe and that was 50 miles inland.
View attachment 18103View attachment 18104View attachment 18105
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Larry,
Quit being so damn realistic ... o_O... ;)
 
GaWx said:
18Z FV3 ? is loltastic since it has very heavy snow up to 9” where 850’s are +5. It has temps staying near freezing in the SAV-CHS corridor. At +5 850’s even sleet would be unlikely to dominate though +5 is in ZR’s wheelhouse. But a major ZR on April Fools Day Deep into SE GA and SE SC just doesn’t sound even possible. The latest major ZR there is March 2-3 of 1962 I believe and that was 50 miles inland.
View attachment 18103View attachment 18104View attachment 18105
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gotta love dynamical cooling/wetbulbing
 
GaWx said:
18Z FV3 ? is loltastic since it has very heavy snow up to 9” where 850’s are +5. It has temps staying near freezing in the SAV-CHS corridor with 30 on the map below at @Stormsfury . At +5 850’s even sleet would be unlikely to dominate though +5 is in ZR’s wheelhouse. But a major ZR on April Fools Day deep into SE GA and SE SC just doesn’t sound even possible. The latest major ZR there is March 2-3 of 1962 I believe and that was 50 miles inland.
View attachment 18103View attachment 18104View attachment 18105
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That blip is right over my area and such. I have no clue what the FV3 sees to cause this dramatic drop in temps and such, but I suspect the programmer was quite drunk playing Mortal Kombat fighting with Sub-zero when the algorithm was put into place.

Thank goodness this version of the model has been delayed for a substantial amount of time to try to figure out what's going on with the physics of this model to better perform.
 
GaWx said:
But it still wouldn't be snow with 850's of +5.
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There’s a significant flaw with the fv3 snow maps especially on tidbits. The Kuchera ratio maps on pivotal give a much more realistic picture of what the 18z fv3 was actually showing. Here’s the Kuchera map from pivotal. Notice the difference? I wouldn’t keep using tidbits for the fv3 because it’s snow maps don’t properly distinguish p-types whereas pivotal matches up with soundings and thermal profiles much better.
CC35A94C-E67A-4AB8-BB82-657F2849AC63.jpeg
 
DarkKnight said:
I love to see this happen for someone in the southeast.
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I’m still skeptical but right now if anyone is favored I’d say Western NC for this one. This system is going to rely heavily on dynamics and taking a favorable track so it wouldn’t take much to warm things up too much but hey it’s something to track and could work out.
 
snowlover91 said:
I’m still skeptical but right now if anyone is favored I’d say Western NC for this one. This system is going to rely heavily on dynamics and taking a favorable track so it wouldn’t take much to warm things up too much but hey it’s something to track and could work out.
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I also say they would be some big flakes in this setup!!
 
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