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Pattern April Chasing ???⛈⛈⛈

Webberweather53 said:
Fayetteville, NC set a new record low max yesterday w/ a high of just 43F (w/o any snow cover mind you). Crushed the old record by 4F and it was the 2nd coldest April high temp ever on record there, w/ records extending back to about 1871. The only day we didn't beat was Apr 3 1915 for obvious reasons because there was 4.5" of snow on the ground which kept temps in the low-mid 30s.
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Raleigh crushed the previous record low max by 7 degrees. The high is the third coldest on April record.
 
Zander98al said:
Saturday and sunday look to be a couple of active days across the south. Spc already has a big chunk of the south in a slight for day 3(saturday) and day 4 will likely get the same by tomorrow.
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If you want to make a thread, go ahead, I think it’s needed with that threat, even if it’s just a few people on that thread like this current threat today, I’ve made a lot of severe wx threads already lol
 
It has been quite dry in this area since Jan 25 with only 2.78" at KSAV vs the normal of ~7.65" or only 36% of normal. So, rain is badly needed. Going to have to start watering as the lawn is showing signs of dryness related stress. Upcoming warmth will exacerbate the dryness.
 
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Next 10-15 days looks pretty wet, that should help
 
The 12Z Euro is much cooler than its prior run and has colder than normal for much of the SE 4/12-4 thanks largely to a stout -NAO. IF it were right, even @pcbjr would be flirting with a very pleasant low near 49 on 4/13 and the Masters 2nd-4th rounds would be pretty chilly. However, caution is advised before believing this because:

1. It is an operational model looking out 7-9 days, especially since it is much cooler than the prior run.
2. The op Euro like most models has continued to have a solid cold bias as per this from Radiant:

"Our warmer outlook is influenced by what has been a significant cold bias within the models, which is evident in the Monday-Thursday verifications from Monday’s runs. Our forecast on Monday accounted for the bias, and for the past four days missed too cool by a total of 0.7 GWHDDs. All other models had larger errors: GFS OP missed by 1.3 GWHDDs, GFS EN by 6.6, Euro OP by 6.6, Euro EN by 8.0 and CAN EN by 14.0."
 
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Related to the above and not surprisingly since they often change similarly each run, the 12Z EPS also came in much cooler for the SE 4/12-14. But per Radiant in the above post, the Euro EN has had a cold bias of a whopping 8.0 F/day just in the last four days based on the forecast from 4 days ago! So, it cannot be trusted at all for its chill. We'll have to see what happens! I'd enjoy seeing a chilly and windy Masters. Hopefully, we can get back down to near normal by then at least.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z Euro is much cooler than its prior run and has colder than normal for much of the SE 4/12-4 thanks largely to a stout -NAO. IF it were right, even @pcbjr would be flirting with a very pleasant low near 49 on 4/13 and the Masters 2nd-4th rounds would be pretty chilly. However, caution is advised before believing this because:

1. It is an operational model looking out 7-9 days, especially since it is much cooler than the prior run.
2. The op Euro like most models has continued to have a solid cold bias as per this from Radiant:

"Our warmer outlook is influenced by what has been a significant cold bias within the models, which is evident in the Monday-Thursday verifications from Monday’s runs. Our forecast on Monday accounted for the bias, and for the past four days missed too cool by a total of 0.7 GWHDDs. All other models had larger errors: GFS OP missed by 1.3 GWHDDs, GFS EN by 6.6, Euro OP by 6.6, Euro EN by 8.0 and CAN EN by 14.0."
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I'm pulling for it to be wrong and it's just the usual cold bias, I'm ready to finish planting my little garden spot and if it's a pleasant 49 in Hogtown I'd no doubt be flirting with a late season frost or freeze threat up this way.
 
metwannabe said:
I'm pulling for it to be wrong and it's just the usual cold bias, I'm ready to finish planting my little garden spot and if it's a pleasant 49 in Hogtown I'd no doubt be flirting with a late season frost or freeze threat up this way.
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Yeah, it has near 39 for you. That may be a little too close for comfort. So, there being a cold bias is your friend right now. Take away the bias and the odds would favor no colder than 40s for you as of now.
 
GaWx said:
Yeah, it has near 39 for you. That may be a little too close for comfort. So, there being a cold bias is your friend right now. Take away the bias and the odds would favor no colder than 40s for you as of now.
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It's pretty amazing right where I live, well protected kind of in a low spot.... I usually excel in the radiational cooling department. Just the other night for instance there was a frost advisory in all the counties just to my west but not here, bottomed out at 29. Anytime a forecast shows 30's I have to take precautions
 
Low clouds this morning gave way to a mix of clouds and sun with a high of 78*F.
 
metwannabe said:
Sure you don't want to carry that on out to May 1
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May have to. Depends on the nao and what goes on out west. If the nao breaks down and troughs start dropping into the west and central us we will certainly have a few chances through early may

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