ForsythSnow
Moderator
As expected. Certainly no mega droughts in sight.Very wet if models verify over the next week or two. 6”+ maybe more in thunderstorms.
As expected. Certainly no mega droughts in sight.Very wet if models verify over the next week or two. 6”+ maybe more in thunderstorms.
Euro has a 1002 mb low developing/strengthening and ejecting right in the sweet spot for alabama severe weather events. For tuesday**View attachment 18485
Raleigh crushed the previous record low max by 7 degrees. The high is the third coldest on April record.Fayetteville, NC set a new record low max yesterday w/ a high of just 43F (w/o any snow cover mind you). Crushed the old record by 4F and it was the 2nd coldest April high temp ever on record there, w/ records extending back to about 1871. The only day we didn't beat was Apr 3 1915 for obvious reasons because there was 4.5" of snow on the ground which kept temps in the low-mid 30s.
Very wet if models verify over the next week or two. 6”+ maybe more in thunderstorms.
Saturday and sunday look to be a couple of active days across the south. Spc already has a big chunk of the south in a slight for day 3(saturday) and day 4 will likely get the same by tomorrow.
Alrighty ill make oneIf you want to make a thread, go ahead, I think it’s needed with that threat, even if it’s just a few people on that thread like this current threat today, I’ve made a lot of severe wx threads already lol
Temps surged to 71*F by midday, and pretty much hit a brick wall once the Cirrostratus moved in.
Sure you don't want to carry that on out to May 1Soooooo about the severe weather potential between April 10 and 20
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I'm pulling for it to be wrong and it's just the usual cold bias, I'm ready to finish planting my little garden spot and if it's a pleasant 49 in Hogtown I'd no doubt be flirting with a late season frost or freeze threat up this way.The 12Z Euro is much cooler than its prior run and has colder than normal for much of the SE 4/12-4 thanks largely to a stout -NAO. IF it were right, even @pcbjr would be flirting with a very pleasant low near 49 on 4/13 and the Masters 2nd-4th rounds would be pretty chilly. However, caution is advised before believing this because:
1. It is an operational model looking out 7-9 days, especially since it is much cooler than the prior run.
2. The op Euro like most models has continued to have a solid cold bias as per this from Radiant:
"Our warmer outlook is influenced by what has been a significant cold bias within the models, which is evident in the Monday-Thursday verifications from Monday’s runs. Our forecast on Monday accounted for the bias, and for the past four days missed too cool by a total of 0.7 GWHDDs. All other models had larger errors: GFS OP missed by 1.3 GWHDDs, GFS EN by 6.6, Euro OP by 6.6, Euro EN by 8.0 and CAN EN by 14.0."
I'm pulling for it to be wrong and it's just the usual cold bias, I'm ready to finish planting my little garden spot and if it's a pleasant 49 in Hogtown I'd no doubt be flirting with a late season frost or freeze threat up this way.
It's pretty amazing right where I live, well protected kind of in a low spot.... I usually excel in the radiational cooling department. Just the other night for instance there was a frost advisory in all the counties just to my west but not here, bottomed out at 29. Anytime a forecast shows 30's I have to take precautionsYeah, it has near 39 for you. That may be a little too close for comfort. So, there being a cold bias is your friend right now. Take away the bias and the odds would favor no colder than 40s for you as of now.
May have to. Depends on the nao and what goes on out west. If the nao breaks down and troughs start dropping into the west and central us we will certainly have a few chances through early maySure you don't want to carry that on out to May 1