• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Severe April 6-8th severe threat

Monday and maybe tuesday will have to watch for a secondary low devolping near the memphis area, the euro has been hinting at the idea off and on as well as the 12km NAM showing it. its still 4 or 5 days out so a lot can change. But it'd make for a more significant event.
 
Texas under the gun on that day 3 with possibility for tornadoes and embedded supercells noted. Haven’t checked the models yet, but could be interesting. Expecting it to be messy storm modes though.
 
Lapse rates on sunday for the south are pretty steep, For a wide area. Lapse rates from the surface to 3km are around 7.5 in most areas and close to 8 in some. With mid level lapse rates around 8. Large hail looks to be a good possibility.
 
Zander98al said:
Good area of high STP on sunday afternoon. From thView attachment 18488e 00z nam
Click to expand...

This threat in my opinion is much more of a threat than the last one, especially as it moves into the SE, the nam shows barely any crapvection like what happened in Louisiana and also shows stronger veering winds aloft with 400+ ms2s SRH, that 2nd sounding in Texas is definitely concerning with strong veering winds aloft which we lacked before, but the NAM shows a lot of crapvection in those areas, buutttt the first one in MS is concerning, not only is there decent veering winds aloft but a deep moist layer, good 3CAPE, Shear does relax further aloft, I’d say the sounding over Texas is more concerning but like I said crapvection can limit CAPE at the last minute, if soundings like that hold, I’d go chasing @TXTornado 1A77DF87-01F8-4DB2-B44F-BE7C78662309.png7811ABE7-9C67-432C-878F-A6CA8D01ED35.png
 
Those soundings definetly support hail but also strong winds with that moist layer then dry air entrainment
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This threat in my opinion is much more of a threat than the last one, especially as it moves into the SE, the nam shows barely any crapvection like what happened in Louisiana and also shows stronger veering winds aloft with 400+ ms2s SRH, that 2nd sounding in Texas is definitely concerning with strong veering winds aloft which we lacked before, but the NAM shows a lot of crapvection in those areas, buutttt the first one in MS is concerning, not only is there decent veering winds aloft but a deep moist layer, good 3CAPE, Shear does relax further aloft, I’d say the sounding over Texas is more concerning but like I said crapvection can limit CAPE at the last minute, if soundings like that hold, I’d go chasing @TXTornado View attachment 18491View attachment 18492
Click to expand...
Id like to see what the HRRR says about it. HRRR has done decent in recent events.
 
That slight risk atleast has to go enhanced in some areas parameters are too high in locations to not be. Also we need to watch out for a outflow boundary around the AR/TN/MS on sunday because it shows a intense thunderstorm complex decaying in that area in the early morning. And that's were the highest STP indices are.
 
STP and simulated radar tommorow around 3-7 o clock from the 18z HRRR. STP values are pretty high. Radar shows a few super cells by themselves and embedded ones in the line. SRH helicity 3km is around 600 in that area along with 300+ pockets of 450 around 1km. If a storm gets by itself with LCL heights around 500 and below itll become a spinning top.
Screenshot_20190405-144440_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20190405-144412_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20190405-144359_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Zander98al said:
STP and simulated radar tommorow around 3-7 o clock from the 18z HRRR. STP values are pretty high. Radar shows a few super cells by themselves and embedded ones in the line. SRH helicity 3km is around 600 in that area along with 300+ pockets of 450 around 1km. If a storm gets by itself with LCL heights around 500 and below itll become a spinning top.
View attachment 18497View attachment 18498View attachment 18499
Click to expand...

Looks like tommorow will be messy, and that MCS May stabilize a lot of areas as some chasers are mentioning, but it could also lay down a outflow boundary, all I got to say is if a storm hits that favorable environment tommorow by itself, oof
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looks like tommorow will be messy, and that MCS May stabilize a lot of areas as some chasers are mentioning, but it could also lay down a outflow boundary, all I got to say is if a storm hits that favorable environment tommorow by itself, oof
Click to expand...
I agree, Those high STP values are along the warm front which always bring high shear.
 
That low pressure system on the 8th could lead to a big severe weather risk but it depends on how it evolves. This is a sounding near the MS/AL border on monday afternoonScreenshot_20190405-154502_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Well supercells looks to pop around peak daytime heating itll be like igniting a powder keg with over 4000j of instability. But eventually merge into a complex of storms.Screenshot_20190405-202904_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Last edited by a moderator:
These soundings tommorow support very very large hail with really large amounts of CAPE and CAPE in the HGZ, no wonder SHIP is so high, could see several baseball size hail reports tommorow, might be a few tornadoes aswell but soundings have calmed down a bit with the veering winds aloftB1A421DC-FDC4-4EEC-A712-103FE6C44E08.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
These soundings tommorow support very very large hail with really large amounts of CAPE and CAPE in the HGZ, no wonder SHIP is so high, could see several baseball size hail reports tommorow, might be a few tornadoes aswell but soundings have calmed down a bit with the veering winds aloftView attachment 18505
Click to expand...
looks to be more of a large hail threat tomorrow like you said. 1km SRH helicity isn't much around peak heating but does gradually increase as the sun goes down.Screenshot_20190405-211826_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Look at The NAM for tomorrow ? lot of differences between the NAM and HRRR. For a event less that 24 hours out. Screenshot_20190405-212452_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Zander98al said:
looks to be more of a large hail threat tomorrow like you said. 1km SRH helicity isn't much around peak heating but does gradually increase as the sun goes down.View attachment 18506
Click to expand...

The hrrr says the SPC is about to get this forecast down nicely, and yeah, I think if any tornadoes develop it’s gonna overall be similar to the tornadic storms that happened back in AL back on March 14th, looking back at those soundings, there very similar except this time there’s larger CAPE and more moisture 87F98B5E-5C6C-43D2-BED1-5249BE819635.jpeg6155C152-8D72-4235-A14A-C497B068EC25.jpeg
 
Sounding from the NAM in the Max STP, there is a bit of decoupling do to it getting later in the afternoon, sounding is decently veered but not that crazy, SRH is decent, sounding supports “soggy hail” lol EFD561A6-FF9F-47A8-85C1-F87B54C4985E.png
 
stormcentral said:
What about sunday and monday?
TN Valley, N MS N AL & N GA?
Click to expand...
Have to wait for close range models to really know anything tbh. But it looks like the threat will be southeast alabama and southwest Georgia that's were the NAM fires up convection around midnight monday into early morning tuesday.
 
There could be a wave around 3 o'clock but looks like there wont be much moisture SRH helicty is better at that time. But its yet to be seen whether moisture will be there. A decent LLJ is in place so models may be undergoing moisture. Screenshot_20190405-220155_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Looks like the enhanced area today has the best tornado potential, STP from the HRRR is around 5+ in the enhanced area.
 
Needa watch for large hail potential on Monday, NAM shows 2000-4000 jkg of SFC cape and very large hail growth zones along with low freezing levels, these will likely be pulse-multicellular clusters, this is the first legit threat of severe wx I’ve had this year lol EB6F073C-ADEB-4AC1-B734-BC245413A54E.jpeg
 
Last edited:
WRAL starting to talk about the possibility of severe storms here Monday and Tuesday.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This threat in my opinion is much more of a threat than the last one, especially as it moves into the SE, the nam shows barely any crapvection like what happened in Louisiana and also shows stronger veering winds aloft with 400+ ms2s SRH, that 2nd sounding in Texas is definitely concerning with strong veering winds aloft which we lacked before, but the NAM shows a lot of crapvection in those areas, buutttt the first one in MS is concerning, not only is there decent veering winds aloft but a deep moist layer, good 3CAPE, Shear does relax further aloft, I’d say the sounding over Texas is more concerning but like I said crapvection can limit CAPE at the last minute, if soundings like that hold, I’d go chasing @TXTornado View attachment 18491View attachment 18492
Click to expand...
I was thinking about it! My friends that chase wanted to target further east and the disagreement over the target area led me to decline the invite haha.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Needa watch for large hail potential on Monday, NAM shows 2000-4000 jkg of SFC cape and very large hail growth zones along with low freezing levels, these will likely be pulse-multicellular clusters, this is the first legit threat of severe wx I’ve had this year lol View attachment 18515
Click to expand...
NAM never over estimates an event, I mean, I’ve still got snowcover from my 7” on Monday!
But joking aside, it will come down to sun availability, and convective debris from Sunday. Ample cape looks to be available.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top