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Hrrr ain’t good but it does shows a outflow boundary tapping into cold air aloft, steeper mid level lapse rates, allowing pulse convection to develop around CLT, but it’s cloudy outside still and yep, you know what that means, it means no-vection
SPC just downgraded the risk level. Brad panovich just said too many clouds and morning showers around. Highlighted Wilmington and Charlotte south as I alluded to this morning.
I just looked at the mesoanalysis and there’s actually 1000-1500 jkg of sfc CAPE that has developed this morning even with leftover convective debris, and clouds are actually starting to break up now
Can see that axis of better theta-E advection allowing SBcape to develop, I wonder how widespread these storms will be, seems like CLT area will have the best instability with a axis of CAPE since convective debris is clearing out
Have had some morning thunderstorms today despite it being on the cooler side. I have my window open which may've contributed but the thunder was pretty loud a couple times. If it was in the afternoon with it being clear or partly cloudy first...
But man, when it clears up later as soon as the last of this rain wraps up, this humidity will be miserable.
@Webberweather53 final stand ? Looks a little bit more messy/widespread then it did before, looks like hailers are more likely with colder air aloft especially in the HGZ vs yesterday and steeper lapse rates today, no wonder why SHIPs are approaching 2
HRRR looks likes it’s doing better than the NAM. A thin line of storms could develop near Love Valley and sweep through Statesville NC. And another area to watch is around Southern Pines NC for a pulse storm.
This is not the look you want to see, if you actually want to see thunderstorms! They are ANCHORED against the mountains, no movement and being held by SE flow! Ughh
The storms over the mountains are collapsing, wonder if any outflow boundaries will trigger new development down my way? Sun is fully out right now, first time all day
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