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April 23-25th Severe Threat

Honestly figured moderate would be a little further north into AL/GA NAM/HRRR should solid STP in the 2-5 for 4-5 hours tomorrow afternoon.
 
A thing to note. Don't forget there's a decent chance for tornadoes and bad weather early tommorow along the gulf shores. HRRR keeps painting a strong swath of helicty updraft around the Florida and alabama state line.Screenshot_20210423-133139.png
 
SRH Helicty is absolutely screaming near this weather feature. And don't look now. But the HRRR also shows broken supercells within this. Very concerning.Screenshot_20210423-133621.png
 
This is the storm that just blew through here.

Didn't get any hail, mind you.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
TXC085-113-397-232030-
/O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0086.210423T1927Z-210423T2030Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
227 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northwestern Rockwall County in north central Texas...
Collin County in north central Texas...
Northeastern Dallas County in north central Texas...

* Until 330 PM CDT.

* At 227 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Richardson,
moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Dallas, Plano, Garland, McKinney, Carrollton, Frisco, Richardson,
Allen, Rowlett, Wylie, Rockwall, Farmers Branch, University Park,
Sachse, Addison, Highland Park, Murphy, Royse City, Fairview and
Princeton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection get inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3335 9638 3334 9638 3334 9637 3328 9629
3299 9630 3292 9652 3281 9677 3299 9689
3299 9684 3311 9684 3338 9642
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 232DEG 27KT 3298 9672

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
$$

Sanchez
 
One of the nastiest updraft streaks I've ever seen. Big potential near the AL/Fl state line. If I'm wrong correct me but I think there's potential for a stronger long tracked tornado along there.Screenshot_20210423-150637.png
 
A dry slot should punch in from the west in the aftn, as a sfc
low tracks across the Great TN Valley to northwestern NC. However,
there will be a second shot of DPVA with the main upper trough that
guidance has triggering strong to severe storms across AL/GA. The
NAM looks like a worst case scenario with lifting the in-situ wedge
boundary north to about I-85 and uncovering 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE and
60-70 kt of 0-6 km shear. Sure enough, the NAMnest has the most deep
convection across northern GA and tries to organize it into a sort
of QLCS along the I-85 corridor and east by 22z Saturday. The other
CAMs have a similar idea, but keep the better CAPE and convection to
our south. With all the early precip and a decent wedge in place,
I`m skeptical of the NAM, but the latest SPC Day 2 outlook keeps
a slight risk up to I-85 and marginal to I-40. So will continue to
mention the severe threat in the HWO. Otherwise, the wedge should
keep temps in the 50s to lower 60s, and mid to upper 60s will be
possible along the edge of the wedge southeast of I-85.

GSP's take on tomorrow.
 
Zander98al said:
One of the nastiest updraft streaks I've ever seen. Big potential near the AL/Fl state line. If I'm wrong correct me but I think there's potential for a stronger long tracked tornado along there.View attachment 82275
Click to expand...

Not good at all, both WRFs are printing out a possible high risk type event for the Gulf coast and bullish even north. Both also have turned the MCS feature into semi-discrete supercells. The NSSL version was almost perfect in placement on the late March event. This event *may* have a higher ceiling than the two AL/GA events in March.

Gonna do a more thorough analysis later.


uh25_max.us_se.png




uh25_max.us_se.png
 
Arcc said:
Not good at all, both WRFs are printing out a possible high risk type event for the Gulf coast and bullish even north. Both also have turned the MCS feature into semi-discrete supercells. The NSSL version was almost perfect in placement on the late March event. This event *may* have a higher ceiling than the two AL/GA events in March.

Gonna do a more thorough analysis later.


uh25_max.us_se.png




uh25_max.us_se.png
Click to expand...
It's sad that there's only a slight risk along the gulf right now. They'll have to really ramp things up to get people to understand the risk. I'll probably set my alarm to see how this pans out early in the morning
 
1619210858644.png

Mesoscale Discussion 0409
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

Areas affected...portions of west-central and north Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98...

Valid 232028Z - 232230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98
continues.

SUMMARY...A few intense cells are possible the next 2-4 hours across
parts of northern/west-central Texas. Large hail and damaging gusts
are the main hazards expected with this activity.

DISCUSSION...Additional thunderstorms are develop and/or
strengthening just ahead of the eastward-advancing dryline this
afternoon. This activity is moving into an airmass that has seen
less thunderstorm activity early in the day compared to areas to the
east and south, and where dewpoints have climbed into the mid to
upper 60s. Increasing low level moisture beneath midlevel lapse
rates around 7.5-8.5 C/km is resulting in 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE,
supporting storm intensification. Furthermore, regional VWP data
suggest shear profiles have continued to improve/strengthen which
should allow for some better-organized cells. 20z experimental
Warn-on-Forecast ensemble guidance also indicates a few intense
cells are possible across the MCD area, including western portions
of the Fort Worth metro area, over the next 2-4 hours, potentially
producing large hail and damaging gusts.

..Leitman.. 04/23/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON 31919933 32769901 33069876 33299824 33279762 33099736
32839725 32529730 32149738 32029747 31649766 31219824
31159877 31129904 31299931 31599932 31919933
 
Yeesh. No let up on the intense updraft for probably over 200 miles on the 19z HRRR. 3CAPE is very high along the path. Could very well be a intense tornado in this corridor. Screenshot_20210423-155956.png
 
just for funnsies look at the hodo. almost a perfect half circle. thats inside the cell with maxed out reflectivity on the 20z HRRRhrrr_2021042320_012_31.75--88.0.pngrefcmp.us_se.png
 
Zander98al said:
One of the nastiest updraft streaks I've ever seen. Big potential near the AL/Fl state line. If I'm wrong correct me but I think there's potential for a stronger long tracked tornado along there.View attachment 82275
Click to expand...
Important to note that this product is good for showing rotating storms but nothing necessarily tornados .. this could be a long tracked supercell or long track damaging wind event but yes this does look concerning for a possible tornado in the vicinity
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Important to note that this product is good for showing rotating storms but nothing necessarily tornados .. this could be a long tracked supercell or long track damaging wind event but yes this does look concerning for a possible tornado in the vicinity
Click to expand...
I know but it's good to show how intense rotating updrafts could be and the storm mode.
 
I am also noticing that the HRRR is slowing moving northward with that line that comes across in the morning.....
 
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