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Pattern Ablazing August

Lickwx said:
The NWS doesn’t , they have their own method that relies on climo + models. So if a model shows 75 in January a week out they go by climo and might forecast 68 and if closer in to time it keeps showing that adjust upwards . Makes them seem conservative but it’s just proper forecasting .
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That’s how Brad is, but last winter he even fell for the models
 
Lickwx said:
Wonder if that means if we are ever to get 100+ gusts do the models have to forecast 200+ gusts ?
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Doubt it. I think when the models had Florence plowing right through nc the max gust here on the euro was 106 which seemed doable when the eyewall was overhead. It seems like most of these dying storms where we get the crazy winds are getting tangled up in troughing so when the heavy rain flips to left of track the models respond by mixing down 850mb winds in the qpf bomb
 
metwannabe said:
Sure did, still need a little more NW movement lol, looks like a winter coastal map and there will be some unhappy members if this verifies

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Is this another one of NickyB's drought busting guarantee where it only rains east of US1 like today?

#cantwait.
 
SD said:
Doubt it. I think when the models had Florence plowing right through nc the max gust here on the euro was 106 which seemed doable when the eyewall was overhead. It seems like most of these dying storms where we get the crazy winds are getting tangled up in troughing so when the heavy rain flips to left of track the models respond by mixing down 850mb winds in the qpf bomb
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With tropical systems I’ve learned to always discount modeled inland wind unless a storm happens to be strengthening up to landfall. A couple days out we could all tell that Florence was gonna be a much weaker storm by the time it came ashore.
 
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smast16 said:
Is this another one of NickyB's drought busting guarantee where it only rains east of US1 like today?

#cantwait.
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I’ll give you a guarantee ! Happiness busting guarantee ! I guarantee you nothing but disappointment and parched grass . Start drinking that urine ! You should do a seance and find out what spirits are haunting you and preventing you from getting rain.
 
75 now . So much for 60s, looks possible for 77-78 . Instead of an exceptionally cool august day it’s now going to be a seasonably cool one . Though it looks like I see some 68-70 readings under the heavy rain around Florence sc !
 
WRAL has an 80% chance of rain starting at 7:00 pm tonight.
 
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