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Pattern Ablazing August

Rain Cold said:
Something about this area promotes sinking and drying.
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Yeah I was duped again by the models showing a significant rain event. Once they got more progressive with the trough and didn't draw the coastal front west we were doomed. I'm not even sure we can get .25 from this. The gradient on this is going to be pretty sharp
 
SD said:
Yeah I was duped again by the models showing a significant rain event. Once they got more progressive with the trough and didn't draw the coastal front west we were doomed. I'm not even sure we can get .25 from this. The gradient on this is going to be pretty sharp
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I think real, actual weather forecasting is dead. Not saying you or me or anyone here, but in the professional world, it's dead. Everyone just looks at models and pretty much that's all they go off of. Models change, forecast changes. Doesn't seem like much experience is injected into official forecasts. As you've no doubt seen, we went from 70-80% chances today and 40-50% the rest of the week to 50% today and 0-30% the rest of the week. 100% model hugging.
 
Rain Cold said:
I think real, actual weather forecasting is dead. Not saying you or me or anyone here, but in the professional world, it's dead. Everyone just looks at models and pretty much that's all they go off of. Models change, forecast changes. Doesn't seem like much experience is injected into official forecasts. As you've no doubt seen, we went from 70-80% chances today and 40-50% the rest of the week to 50% today and 0-30% the rest of the week. 100% model hugging.
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It really is absurd how far off the forecast went from from just yesterday to today. The models have been horrible with the accuracy of rain and storm chances here the whole year.
 
Rain Cold said:
I think real, actual weather forecasting is dead. Not saying you or me or anyone here, but in the professional world, it's dead. Everyone just looks at models and pretty much that's all they go off of. Models change, forecast changes. Doesn't seem like much experience is injected into official forecasts. As you've no doubt seen, we went from 70-80% chances today and 40-50% the rest of the week to 50% today and 0-30% the rest of the week. 100% model hugging.
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RC said:
“Everyone just looks at models and pretty much that’s all they go off of.”

Everyone? This blanket statement about pro mets is not true at all. It depends on who the professional is as regards whether or not they’ll forecast based on exact model output or instead just use model output as one tool in the toolbox that is either adjusted (for biases or for other reasons in each particular case) or is sometimes largely ignored.

Example: Remember all of those overly hot runs for much of the SE US that ended up being too hot as often occurs? The better pros knew better and adjusted cooler than these hottest runs, partially because of a lack of widespread SE drought.

Another example: The absurd highest wind gusts on many Euro and other runs are often overdone as you know. Better pros know this and adjust significantly downward or ignore.
 
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SD said:
Euro is doing that thing again where it gets crazy hot and mixed west of the piedmont trough
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I predict that it won’t get nearly that hot. This is the typical overdoing of heat. My feeling is that soil moisture will once again protect the bulk of the SE from heat like this.
 
GaWx said:
RC said:
“Everyone just looks at models and pretty much that’s all they go off of.”

Everyone? This blanket statement about pro mets is not true at all. It depends on who the professional is as regards whether or not they’ll forecast based on exact model output or instead just use model output as one tool in the toolbox that is either adjusted (for biases or for other reasons in each particular case) or is sometimes largely ignored.

Example: Remember all of those overly hot runs for much of the SE US that ended up being too hot as often occurs? The better pros knew better and adjusted cooler than these hottest runs, partially because of a lack of widespread SE drought.

Another example: The absurd highest wind gusts on many Euro and other runs are often overdone as you know. Better pros know this and adjust significantly downward or ignore.
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Everyone is a bit of hyperbole, as of course, I don't have access to everyone. But most of the non-paywall outlets around here follow the models lock-step. The insane wind gust models are obviously discounted.
 
Rain Cold said:
Everyone is a bit of hyperbole, as of course, I don't have access to everyone. But most of the non-paywall outlets around here follow the models lock-step. The insane wind gust models are obviously discounted.
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Getting tropical systems through here that produce insane wind gust model outputs is almost better than actually experiencing those gusts. Adrenaline without the power outages.
 
Rain Cold said:
Everyone is a bit of hyperbole, as of course, I don't have access to everyone. But most of the non-paywall outlets around here follow the models lock-step. The insane wind gust models are obviously discounted.
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“You get what you pay for” applies pretty well in this case.
 
Rain Cold said:
I think real, actual weather forecasting is dead. Not saying you or me or anyone here, but in the professional world, it's dead. Everyone just looks at models and pretty much that's all they go off of. Models change, forecast changes. Doesn't seem like much experience is injected into official forecasts. As you've no doubt seen, we went from 70-80% chances today and 40-50% the rest of the week to 50% today and 0-30% the rest of the week. 100% model hugging.
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Yeah it's obvious there's a lot of model regurgitating that takes place. To me though the wetter pattern with the bermuda ridge nosing in from the east holding the front up made more sense than it being pinned to the coast like winter. That said it started to become obvious it wasn't going to work out for us Sunday when most models shifted east and the operational were in the top % of the spread WRT rainfall
 
Anybody get the feeling that this fall/winter season in the southeast will be a good chasing one? Seems like Alabama atleast is due for a decent tornado event. It's been about 10 years since the last one I can remember. The one that produced the ef4 Hattiesburg and ef3 mobile tornado along with the ef3 that hit centerpoint that season prior. With all the bowling balls that moved there way through the arklatex region this past spring. I'm almost expecting a active season. And don't forget the ef3 that hit fultondale this January. Seems like big events happen in increments of 10.

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Zander98al said:
Anybody get the feeling that this fall/winter season in the southeast will be a good chasing one? Seems like Alabama atleast is due for a decent tornado event. It's been about 10 years since the last one I can remember. The one that produced the ef4 Hattiesburg and ef3 mobile tornado along with the ef3 that hit centerpoint that season prior. With all the bowling balls that moved there way through the arklatex region this past spring. I'm almost expecting a active season. And don't forget the ef3 that hit fultondale this January. Seems like big events happen in increments of 10.

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Birmingham violent tornado pattern seems to be 20 years. 2011 ef4 1998 ef5 1977 ef5 and then the 1950's one. Amazing the patterns. I'm thinking of creating a thread on it. Because weather follows patterns almost too a tee
And yes I know the 2011 doesn't follow the 20 year schedule. So if that's the case a violent one would be due anytime based on the pattern.
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Zander98al said:
Anybody get the feeling that this fall/winter season in the southeast will be a good chasing one? Seems like Alabama atleast is due for a decent tornado event. It's been about 10 years since the last one I can remember. The one that produced the ef4 Hattiesburg and ef3 mobile tornado along with the ef3 that hit centerpoint that season prior. With all the bowling balls that moved there way through the arklatex region this past spring. I'm almost expecting a active season. And don't forget the ef3 that hit fultondale this January. Seems like big events happen in increments of 10.

Sent from my moto g power using Tapatalk
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While Tennessee gets ice storms this winter. Lol
 
GaWx said:
RC said:
“Everyone just looks at models and pretty much that’s all they go off of.”

Everyone? This blanket statement about pro mets is not true at all. It depends on who the professional is as regards whether or not they’ll forecast based on exact model output or instead just use model output as one tool in the toolbox that is either adjusted (for biases or for other reasons in each particular case) or is sometimes largely ignored.

Example: Remember all of those overly hot runs for much of the SE US that ended up being too hot as often occurs? The better pros knew better and adjusted cooler than these hottest runs, partially because of a lack of widespread SE drought.

Another example: The absurd highest wind gusts on many Euro and other runs are often overdone as you know. Better pros know this and adjust significantly downward or ignore.
Click to expand...
The NWS doesn’t , they have their own method that relies on climo + models. So if a model shows 75 in January a week out they go by climo and might forecast 68 and if closer in to time it keeps showing that adjust upwards . Makes them seem conservative but it’s just proper forecasting .
 
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