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5/18/20 - 5/23/20 Upper Low Flooding & Severe Threat

Through late Saturday qpf_acc.us_ma (8).png

Thursday looks like the best chance to get into the excessive rains around here. Pwat surge, instability, disturbance
qpf_006h.us_ma.png
 
ryan1234 said:
Pretty sure those are 6-hour totals...
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Yeah it looks like a general 1.5" over 6 hours under that band. A good thunderstorm will lay that down in about 15 minutes. I'm interested in the 5 day total.
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah it looks like a general 1.5" over 6 hours under that band. A good thunderstorm will lay that down in about 15 minutes. I'm interested in the 5 day total.
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KyloG said:
Geez, zooming in on the CLT region...5" line kisses Wake Co.

View attachment 41673
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Yeah, these are going to be zero visibility tropical downpours.

Good god, if that comes to fruition were going to have some major issues across Charlotte.
 
It would not surprise me to see some PDS flood warnings somewhere in the Carolina's...
 
KyloG said:
Exactly! I really don't care about whether we get 1-2" or 2-4" but it's the principle of the matter when it comes to these models.
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2-4 is probably the safe bet for our area. I think someone locally will max out in the 6-6.5 range too much potential to line this up and train it
 
NWS is really slow with these flood watches. Only the Upstate and the mountains currently under watches. Way too much model consensus to not have the whole viewing area under a watch.
 
ryan1234 said:
NWS is really slow with these flood watches. Only the Upstate and the mountains currently under watches. Way too much model consensus to not have the whole viewing area under a watch.
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GSP said in their discussion that it’s a matter of when not if for the remainder of their forecast area. The areas they have in the flood watch now are the highest risk.
 




Took these on my Pixel while I was walking. Hot walk but sorta worth it to look at storm clouds. We need it. Hopefully our 0.00" for May will be ending right here.

Edit: Instead, I'm barely missing on both. Fun. .-.
 
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SD said:
2-4 is probably the safe bet for our area. I think someone locally will max out in the 6-6.5 range too much potential to line this up and train it
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Though Wednesday all models agree on a sharp gradient right on the west Wake Co line. But, Thursday/Friday seems like a better chance at the 2-4”

5969280F-9AFB-4DAB-B156-FCCF0A6E717C.png949481A5-5C58-41BE-B02B-6F533AD923F1.png
 
KyloG said:
Though Wednesday all models agree on a sharp gradient right on the west Wake Co line. But, Thursday/Friday seems like a better chance at the 2-4”

View attachment 41681View attachment 41682
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Hmmm seen this movie before. Take the front end off the table. But hey, at least there's a round 2 that gets us. I remember when it was round 1 that got us. Oops. The good news is, at least it's likely that it will rain at least some.
 
Rain Cold said:
Hmmm seen this movie before. Take the front end off the table. But hey, at least there's a round 2 that gets us. I remember when it was round 1 that got us. Oops. The good news is, at least it's likely that it will rain at least some.
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Yep....I am hopeful for a good 1.5-2" of rain...won't have to run the sprinklers for a couple of weeks would be nice.
 
8-10” through 10am Thursday. Additional rain after that not included. Sweet spot, Boone, NC. 0EBCAEC9-0918-4918-B94A-2C80B2F58734.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Hopefully, thanks man, want some more CTG shots, those last upward streamers I got were a surprise
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I think any lightning will have to wait until next week if and when we get to 90. Most places will get lots of rain , but I'm seeing signs that this will be no big deal at all where I am. Maybe .50 over the next 4-5 days.
 
Stone Mountain State Park in northern Wilkes County has a strong band that is not moving. Stuff like that tonight will cause severe flash flooding over small areas. Caldwell County is seeing similar stubborn up-slope.
 
Insane rates can tell from a distance the sky fell. Complete washout over steep terrain already. 2” or more per hour. 245C085D-395F-42C8-8354-130ADF98FF15.jpeg
 
Jessy89 said:
Do the winds meet severe criteria of 60mph you think?


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Probably not, they were around 40-50 mph if I were to guess. I didn’t expect that power surge though. It knocked everything out for a moment or two.

That line looks to heading up your way over the next few hours.
 
BufordWX said:
Probably not, they were around 40-50 mph if I were to guess. I didn’t expect that power surge though. It knocked everything out for a moment or two.

That line looks to heading up your way over the next few hours.
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Yeah ive been watching it. Been looking like it wants to bow out a bit


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