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Severe 4/12 - (?) Severe Weather

Iceresistance

Iceresistance

Be ready for anything
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The SPC has put out a Slight risk of Severe Storms starting April 11th in the Southern Plains, but April 13th (Even though the SPC does not have a Severe Weather risk on that day) appears to have a ridiculously high ceiling for severe storms.

Joe Bastardi is worried about it, he's saying it's going to be a 'Mega-outbreak'



Mike Ventrice's Automated Severe Weather forecasting (Please take it as a grain of salt) is showing a HIGH risk for the Central & Southern Plains for April 13th.
:yikes:


 
Looks like a multi day dry line storm/supercell development is possible on Monday and Tuesday with plenty of instability in place. Although mesoscale details will really get a better read on these days which we won’t know for several more days still.

Wednesday is when the main system finally starts to move east, but there is too much model variability on how fast the system moves right now, but certainly will have some degree of severe weather potential somewhere.
 
Just with a quick look at the wind profiles and lifting mechanisms, not familiar at all with plains severe weather events but I'd say your biggest severe weather events will probably be on that 2nd or 3rd risk day into east Oklahoma, Missouri and north Arkansas. Disclaimer though I'm not familiar with plains setups usually you have a dryline that sits over west Oklahoma and that area that they form off of but idk. Just thought I'd put a cent or two in the bucket
 
Brent said:
It was only a matter of time I guess. Been watching it to the south and east for almost a month
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I hope it brings me more ⛄️! ☃️
 
Zander98al said:
Just with a quick look at the wind profiles and lifting mechanisms, not familiar at all with plains severe weather events but I'd say your biggest severe weather events will probably be on that 2nd or 3rd risk day into east Oklahoma, Missouri and north Arkansas. Disclaimer though I'm not familiar with plains setups usually you have a dryline that sits over west Oklahoma and that area that they form off of but idk. Just thought I'd put a cent or two in the bucket
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The sounding is on the 2nd day of the SPC Risk Days, on Tuesday.

Sunday has a CINH of 300 to 400, likely capped off.
Monday has limited moisture return.
 
Zander98al said:
Very strong cap and elevated storm mode on this sounding. But looks like a potential 3 day severe weather event nonetheless
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Looks like pretty weak capping and likely surface based convection. The issue I see is the pretty weak(30knt) winds at 500mb, but like you I really don’t know plains events that well.
 
Arcc said:
Looks like pretty weak capping and likely surface based convection. The issue I see is the pretty weak(30knt) winds at 500mb, but like you I really don’t know plains events that well.
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I thought 90 CIN was pretty strong? Maybe I'm looking at it wrong haha. Most of your lift is coming from mesoscale and wind divergence and peak heating takes a lot to bust a pretty strong cap.

I've seen where strong cap days bust pretty good. I think that plains super tornado oubtreak that was forecasted a couple years back was a high cap day and busted very bad for what was actually forecasted.
 
Zander98al said:
I thought 90 CIN was pretty strong? Maybe I'm looking at it wrong haha. Most of your lift is coming from mesoscale and wind divergence and peak heating takes a lot to bust a pretty strong cap.

I've seen where strong cap days bust pretty good. I think that plains super tornado oubtreak that was forecasted a couple years back was a high cap day and busted very bad for what was actually forecasted.
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Now this is a strong cap.C23B6A0E-94D1-4C05-94CA-35A742BCBF6A.jpeg
 
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Zander98al said:
Without a frontal passage I'd almost think 50+CIN would be too much, Lol I think dfw guy on here would know more since he lives in Texas.
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Looks like the temp at ~850mb-700mb is actually increasing according to soundings as the evening progresses. That would definitely hurt.
 
Arcc said:
Looks like the temp at ~850mb-700mb is actually increasing according to soundings as the evening progresses. That would definitely hurt.
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You always see crazy soundings and super high paramters in the plains but almost half of them never verify to be actual decent severe weather days, which is a good thing nonetheless but very misleading when just looking at a composite index. Some of these areas you probably won't know till almost the day of on wether you have a substantial risk depending on how weak the CAP is and where your mesoscale features setup/ divergence all that. You can have the best composites but until something gets it lifted and moving it's all for naught.
 
Arcc said:
Looks like the temp at ~850mb-700mb is actually increasing according to soundings as the evening progresses. That would definitely hurt.
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Lol yeah thats going to be hard to overcome Screenshot_20220408-194750-605.png
 
Zander98al said:
I thought 90 CIN was pretty strong? Maybe I'm looking at it wrong haha. Most of your lift is coming from mesoscale and wind divergence and peak heating takes a lot to bust a pretty strong cap.

I've seen where strong cap days bust pretty good. I think that plains super tornado oubtreak that was forecasted a couple years back was a high cap day and busted very bad for what was actually forecasted.
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There was no capping issues for 5/20/2019, there was more mid-level dry air than expected in the soundings.
 
That’s very impressive, extreme low and mid level lapse rates, great low level streamwise vorticity, but the LCL is a bit high. Reminds me of the DDC sounding years ago 1ECEB836-FF4B-48FB-923A-9BBCDAA06E6C.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
That’s very impressive, extreme low and mid level lapse rates, great low level streamwise vorticity, but the LCL is a bit high. Reminds me of the DDC sounding years ago View attachment 117038
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The LCL is more favorable in Oklahoma, as shown here with this model sounding over OKC. In fact, Central Oklahoma is even more favorable for Supercells than Kansas is on the 18z GFS! :oops:
18z GFS Sounding over OKC.png
 
Iceresistance said:
The LCL is more favorable in Oklahoma, as shown here with this model sounding over OKC. In fact, Central Oklahoma is even more favorable for Supercells than Kansas is on the 18z GFS! :oops:
View attachment 117039
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Yeah that’s highly impressive, that sounding is favorable for HP supercells with humongous hail and tornadoes, tons of llvl streamwise vorticity and wind vectors almost intersecting, the impressive thermodynamics make up for the somewhat weaker mid level flow
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah that’s highly impressive, that sounding is favorable for HP supercells with humongous hail and tornadoes, tons of llvl streamwise vorticity and wind vectors almost intersecting, the impressive thermodynamics make up for the somewhat weaker mid level flow
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Yeah, already strongly considering getting the storm shelter ready in the next couple of days. The GFS has been extremely consistent with this in the past 6 runs.
 
Iceresistance said:
What are the soundings &/or Bulk Shear looking like?
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Supportive of supercells think the bulk shear is around 50+ in the most favorable areas. Probably looks like your northern/ central MS /AL into Tennessee are the most favorable but I haven't really dived in.
 
Wouldn’t completely rule out an isolated storm or two that manage to develop tomorrow evening. The 3km Nam has isolated development although most other models don’t. There would probably not be too much with them aside from a small wind and hail threat if anything at all.7C8B919C-F707-4779-BE59-7B2514D95309.png
 
BufordWX said:
Wouldn’t completely rule out an isolated storm or two that manage to develop tomorrow evening. The 3km Nam has isolated development although most other models don’t. There would probably not be too much with them aside from a small wind and hail threat if anything at all.View attachment 117044
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Tomorrow could be a sneaky event for Oklahoma & Missouri
 
Lapse rates to me look best overall for Wednesday… think I start over central Arkansas head either very Southern Missouri or even nw Mississippi… helicity off charts in these areas.
 
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