I can see the storms to the South & Southeast
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Severe 4/12 - (?) Severe Weather
- Thread starter Iceresistance
- Start date
-
- Tags
- severe
I can see the storms to the South & Southeast
Another Supercell right behind the first one has a hook right over Charleston, AR
HSVweather
Member
HSVweather
Member
They were almost directly under it.
NoSnowATL
Member
He screams way to much. Surprised he didn’t scream WEDGE!
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
gawxnative
Member
When there is hail in forecast...compliments Jeff Foxworthy
Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Poor low level lapse rates are really killing the tornado chances this afternoon in Arkansas with almost all of north Arkansas 6 or below 
Z
Zander98al
Guest
These storms are moving into better lower level lapse rates
Southeast Oklahoma storms just lit up with tornado warnings.
Nice write up for tomorrow by FWD...
000
FXUS64 KFWD 112005
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
305 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022
...New Long Term...
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday through Monday/
While the longwave upper level trough will remain across the
Intermountain West Tuesday before ejecting out in the plains
Wednesday, the primary feature of interest to us is a strong
shortwave trough currently near Baja that will rotate around the
longwave and through Texas on Tuesday. It is rather unusual to be
able to spot and track these shortwave disturbances so clearly on
water vapor this time of the year, but being able to do so in the
current data and in model potential vorticity forecast raises the
confidence that strong forcing will spread over North and Central
Texas Tuesday afternoon.
Lift is just one of three important ingredients for convection.
The second ingredient is moisture, and after a couple days of
strong return flow off of the Gulf, we certainly have enough of
that in place. The final ingredient is instability, and it`s the
linchpin in this forecast. There will be instability below an
inversion or cap, but that cap means the atmosphere is effectively
stable and thus the 3rd ingredient is missing...that is unless
the stable layer/cap can be eroded. There are a few ways to break
a cap, one through heating and moistening of the surface airmass
which is easy to predict and anticipate. The other is through
dynamic lift, much harder for forecasters and computer models
alike to predict. This explains why there are a variety of
forecast solutions - ranging from widespread convection erupting
over the region during the afternoon to nothing happening at all.
(The models just don`t know how much of the cap to erode.) For the
forecast I am leaning toward the more convectively active
forecast solutions. The reason for this is that lifting of a cap
is easier when the lapse rates above the cap are nearly dry
adiabatic, which they will be tomorrow. This means that the lift
tomorrow isn`t spent lifting/modifying a thermodynamically stable
mid level. Instead the lift more effectively reaches down to the
level of the capping inversion and cools that layer...allowing
the very unstable air residing in the lowest part of the
atmosphere to be realized in the form of convection.
Given the strength of the forcing/lift and its timing, our storms
may not wait for peak heating and may not initially form on the
dryline like in our usual spring time severe weather events.
Storms could form as early as 1 or 2 pm. Increasing wind fields
ahead of the approaching shortwave trough will result in organized
wind shear, meaning that once storms develop they will be capable
of becoming supercells and producing a variety of severe weather.
Very large hail (baseball or larger) is the primary threat, but
damaging winds and tornadoes are also possible. Storms will
rapidly move east and northeast through the afternoon and early
evening hours. As the forcing from the shortwave trough moves out
of the region during the evening hours we should see activity
track east and the region may be in a lull for a few hours Tuesday
night. An arriving cold front may spark up some additional
showers and storms early Wednesday morning mainly across East and
Central Texas. Severe weather is possible with this activity too,
but the more linear storm mode and diminishing wind shear and
instability suggest it`s a lower end threat.
000
FXUS64 KFWD 112005
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
305 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022
...New Long Term...
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday through Monday/
While the longwave upper level trough will remain across the
Intermountain West Tuesday before ejecting out in the plains
Wednesday, the primary feature of interest to us is a strong
shortwave trough currently near Baja that will rotate around the
longwave and through Texas on Tuesday. It is rather unusual to be
able to spot and track these shortwave disturbances so clearly on
water vapor this time of the year, but being able to do so in the
current data and in model potential vorticity forecast raises the
confidence that strong forcing will spread over North and Central
Texas Tuesday afternoon.
Lift is just one of three important ingredients for convection.
The second ingredient is moisture, and after a couple days of
strong return flow off of the Gulf, we certainly have enough of
that in place. The final ingredient is instability, and it`s the
linchpin in this forecast. There will be instability below an
inversion or cap, but that cap means the atmosphere is effectively
stable and thus the 3rd ingredient is missing...that is unless
the stable layer/cap can be eroded. There are a few ways to break
a cap, one through heating and moistening of the surface airmass
which is easy to predict and anticipate. The other is through
dynamic lift, much harder for forecasters and computer models
alike to predict. This explains why there are a variety of
forecast solutions - ranging from widespread convection erupting
over the region during the afternoon to nothing happening at all.
(The models just don`t know how much of the cap to erode.) For the
forecast I am leaning toward the more convectively active
forecast solutions. The reason for this is that lifting of a cap
is easier when the lapse rates above the cap are nearly dry
adiabatic, which they will be tomorrow. This means that the lift
tomorrow isn`t spent lifting/modifying a thermodynamically stable
mid level. Instead the lift more effectively reaches down to the
level of the capping inversion and cools that layer...allowing
the very unstable air residing in the lowest part of the
atmosphere to be realized in the form of convection.
Given the strength of the forcing/lift and its timing, our storms
may not wait for peak heating and may not initially form on the
dryline like in our usual spring time severe weather events.
Storms could form as early as 1 or 2 pm. Increasing wind fields
ahead of the approaching shortwave trough will result in organized
wind shear, meaning that once storms develop they will be capable
of becoming supercells and producing a variety of severe weather.
Very large hail (baseball or larger) is the primary threat, but
damaging winds and tornadoes are also possible. Storms will
rapidly move east and northeast through the afternoon and early
evening hours. As the forcing from the shortwave trough moves out
of the region during the evening hours we should see activity
track east and the region may be in a lull for a few hours Tuesday
night. An arriving cold front may spark up some additional
showers and storms early Wednesday morning mainly across East and
Central Texas. Severe weather is possible with this activity too,
but the more linear storm mode and diminishing wind shear and
instability suggest it`s a lower end threat.
Storm north of Little Rock
This just went off in the last five minutes.
TORNADO EMERGENCY!
Wow. 
HSVweather
Member
That’s going to be really close to the Airport
HSVweather
Member
