Memphis WFO already mentioning the atmosphere will recover here in the Midsouth in wake of the morning activity. Hoping I'm wrong but tomorrow could be a long day for this area:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
647 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022
.UPDATE...
See aviation discussion.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 453 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022/
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis early this morning places a cold
front/
quasi-stationary boundary from the Ohio Valley back through
Southeast Missouri, Northwest Arkansas, and the Red River Valley
of Oklahoma and Texas.
GOES-16 satellite and KNQA WSR-
88D radar
trends still indicate showers and thunderstorms occurring over
portions of Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, West
Tennessee near the Tennessee River and extreme Northeast
Mississippi. These showers and thunderstorms are associated with a
mid-level
shortwave trough that is about to depart the Mid-South.
As of 3 AM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the 60s
across most locations.
Severe thunderstorm potential tonight
through Wednesday evening remain the predominant concern in this
morning`s forecast issuance.
Shortwave ridging is expected to gradually build into the Mid-
South this morning as the
shortwave departs the Mid-South. This
will result in showers and thunderstorms gradually coming to an
end this morning. Thus, a relatively dry forecast for much of the
area through at least early to perhaps mid-afternoon due to
lacking triggering mechanism. Temperatures this afternoon will
warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Short term models indicate a
shortwave embedded within southwest
flow aloft will move into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight.
This
shortwave combined with an 850
low level jet increasing to
50
kts, 0-6 km bulk
shear values around 45
kts, moderately steep
to steep 700-500
mb layer mid level lapse rates, 0-1 km storm
relative
helicity values at or above 300
m2/s2, and
mixed layer
CAPE values between 1000-1500
J/kg support the potential for
severe thunderstorms across the Mid-South this evening into early
Wednesday morning. Large
hail and damaging winds will be the
primary severe weather threats along with the potential for a
tornado or two especially along and west of the Mississippi River.
Localized heavy
rainfall will also be possible.
Models continue to indicate the potential for a significant
severe weather episode across much of the Mid-South Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday evening as a strong upper level trough
and associated cold front move through the Lower Mississippi
Valley. This morning`s short term and Convective Allowing Model
runs suggest a mixed mode of a Quasi-Linear Convective System
(QLCS) along the front and supercell thunderstorms out ahead of
the front.
Showers and thunderstorms from tonight`s convection is
expected to depart the Mid-South by Wednesday morning. This will
allow the atmosphere to recover with surface based CAPE values
increasing to or above 2000 J/kg. This instability combined with
steep mid-level lapse rates, 0-1 km storm relative helicity values
above 300 m2/s2, favorable upper level divergence and
speed/directional shear support the potential for severe
thunderstorms and tornadoes. A few of the tornadoes could be
strong. Large to very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes
will will be threats for thunderstorms that become severe. In
addition, localized heavy rainfall will also possible. In
addition, a Wind Advisory may be needed for strong south winds
along and west of the Mississippi River Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday evening.
Long term models indicate cooler and drier air will filter in
behind the cold
front for Thursday and Thursday night bringing a
break in the
active weather pattern. This will be short lived as
showers and
thunderstorm chances will return for Friday into the
Easter weekend as the
front attempts to work its way back north as
a warm
front on Easter Sunday and a trailing cold
front Sunday
night across the Lower Mississippi Valley. At this time, it
appears the best
instability and strong/
severe thunderstorm
potential may reside over Southern Mississippi with this late
weekend system but will continue to be monitored in subsequent
model runs for any progression to the north and inclusion into the
Hazardous Weather
Outlook.
katv.com
