Looking at soundings across the SE and there scary in General, only thing I keep noticing with some soundings is lack of steep LLvL LR and lack of 3CAPE, but with such strong wind energy..
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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
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- severe weather tornadoes
.....You get dead, discrete updrafts.
Edit: That is poorly worded. You get updrafts that look like taffy or does limp noodle work better.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
18z nam coming out ?
Jrips2710
Member
12z Euro Mean is slightly further north and about 3-5mb deeper with the surface low 
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
JP Dice did a Facebook live a little while ago. His tone was pretty ominous. Was asked if he saw anything to limit this from be a significant event. He stressed he is usually that guy that tries to find something that would prevent a big event but stressed that with this one he just isn't seeing anything.
NAM has slightly higher heights this run ahead of the shortwave, just a little trend but still it matters 
Dawgdaze22
Member
Bigger warm sector
Dawgdaze22
Member
Christopher
Member
Yep, very strong wording from JP.
He stated it could be like April 15, 2011.
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Cadi40
Member
So are chances for a significant outbreak at least in the Carolina’s going up or down at this moment in time?
Jrips2710
Member
FFC (Atlanta) doesn’t sound too concerned in their latest AFD. They seem to think things will be linear in GA
“A relatively low cape/high shear environment is expected ahead of
the cold front, allowing for a primarily linear mode of convection
associated with this system. CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, along
with low level shear values of 40-50 kts and deep layer shear of 70-
80 kts are expected. SRH values of 400-500 m2/s2 are possible ahead
of the cold front, as well. As a result, damaging wind gusts and
tornadic activity are expected to be the primary hazards with any
severe thunderstorms that occur.”
“A relatively low cape/high shear environment is expected ahead of
the cold front, allowing for a primarily linear mode of convection
associated with this system. CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, along
with low level shear values of 40-50 kts and deep layer shear of 70-
80 kts are expected. SRH values of 400-500 m2/s2 are possible ahead
of the cold front, as well. As a result, damaging wind gusts and
tornadic activity are expected to be the primary hazards with any
severe thunderstorms that occur.”
Dawgdaze22
Member
Man these are some disturbing soundings across MS, EML, solid low level instability 
and that QLCS looks scary as it heads East, that a look that supports a high end, low topped QLCS 
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Jp dice already with it. ?
mbway091
Member
The spotlight for intense, long-lived tornadoes is further to the south and west, but most models still have the Carolina's in play for some early morning severe weather with at least the possibility of tornadoes on Monday.
Seems like the danger for us in the Carolinas is not necessarily the severity, but the awkward timing when people may still be sleeping or not paying attention.
BufordWX
Member
Looking at the Nam it almost looks like there could be two separate waves/lines of storms. I was listening to James Spann earlier and he even mentioned the idea of one line crossing Alabama in the Afternoon and another crossing in the evening/overnight hours.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Usually when there's 2 lines, the system is overblown on the modeling. I think there might be a bit of a bust potential in this.
mbway091
Member
Now that's what I like to see.
Areas of 2 convection are likely from the intense forcing as the trough tilts negative, with these setups there almost always tends to be this area of convection that develops right out of the gulf, this activity as it starts out could pose a tornado threat (even significant), while the second line is the dominant QLCS, although that first area of convection could just be junk, but soundings around it show better streamwise vorticity in hodos while soundings ahead the the final line show hodos more straight
I’d suggest y’all take a look at this when it gets closer to go time
cameronnixonphotography.wordpress.com
Storm-Relative Hodograph Nowcast
Now (A thorough explanation of storm-relative hodographs can be found here!) *Image may not be current! (Floater domain updates hourly only when activity anticipated) Arrows: Approximate storm trac…
cameronnixonphotography.wordpress.com
Gfs continues to trend slower with more heights building ahead 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Oh I wasn’t messing around either
BHS1975
Member
Looks like the least optimal timing is gonna save our butts on this one.
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Always does.
Yeah, if this was coming in through peak heating in NC/SC, we would likely be dealing with 1500 plus jkgs of SBcape, and something way worse, but even at dark the LLVL jet looks like it’s gonna be intense with decent theta E/cape advecting in, with around 250-750 jkgs of SBcape, and nighttime carries its own issues
GSP 
Shaggy
Member
F-4 that missed me by 2 miles in the great 1984 outbreak hit at like 11pm. Night helps but by no means is an all clear.
NWS New Orleans already taking this seriously per this afternoon's discussion:
"All modes of severe weather possible, if not likely, with
potential for a significant amount of severe weather. SPC
currently outlooking a 30 percent threat for about the northern
half of the area Sunday(Day 4), which equates to an Enhanced Risk.
Wouldn`t be shocked to see a Moderate Risk for portions of the
area in tomorrow`s Day 3 outlook for Sunday."
"All modes of severe weather possible, if not likely, with
potential for a significant amount of severe weather. SPC
currently outlooking a 30 percent threat for about the northern
half of the area Sunday(Day 4), which equates to an Enhanced Risk.
Wouldn`t be shocked to see a Moderate Risk for portions of the
area in tomorrow`s Day 3 outlook for Sunday."
BHS1975
Member
Shaggy
Member
True
It's funny how for like 8 days in a row the models have slowed down and slowed down and the timing for the central and eastern Carolinas has always been overnight early AM.
it’s slowed down on most major globals, including the euro
Monday’s 00z run
today’s 12z
GFS has also slowed it down
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
No words needed
Snowflowxxl
Member
One word needed: APOCALYPTIC
Not seen it mentioned but I’m growing concerned for widespread 50 to 80mph gusts for the mountains and foothills after upslope rains saturate the ground. The biggest punch could be west of i77 with numerous power outages. I can’t foresee the impact being as severe further east outside of upslope impact but could still be embedded tornado down East too.
In-house models showing 80mph gusts for Boone and West Jefferson.