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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

Claycochaser said:
I see. Still dont know the reason for the post but that's really of no consequence and banter most likely.
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I’m not sure if you meant the material in his post was banter, or the fact that he was in all caps was banter? Nonetheless, he can’t turn off all caps his job since he is a first responder.


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My TWC forecast is really downplaying the threat! This is so weird! The wording yesterday was crazy but now it is a lesser threat!
 

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ARCC I think you are 100% correct. Too much shear and these things are really getting stretched. Looking at the radar those cells in Miss could have easily all been producers with just a few tweaks of the environment. Let's hope the trend continues into Bama but I'm not totally sold that it will. I think as the next wave of forcing for ascent over spreads these storms later into central al we could see their organization improve.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I’m not sure if you meant the material in his post was banter, or the fact that he was in all caps was banter? Nonetheless, he can’t turn off all caps his job since he is a first responder.


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No no. Just a misunderstanding. I didnt understandwhy he quoted me at all since I didn't refer to anything he stated and it seemed angry to boost. I was saying my discussion of it was banter, not what he was saying and this is the last I'll say on it we got more important things going on. My apologies.
 
ryan1234 said:
I just walked outside in Union County. Temps and humidity up. Warm front has lifted north. This is setting the stage for some nasty stuff later on...
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The wedge front seems to be just north of I-85 now. We had better hope it does not decide to stall there because if it does the area from Anderson SC to Charlotte would be in trouble. Temp and humidity are way up here in Jonesville SC and still slowly climbing.
 
Claycochaser said:
ARCC I think you are 100% correct. Too much shear and these things are really getting stretched. Looking at the radar those cells in Miss could have easily all been producers with just a few tweaks of the environment. Let's hope the trend continues into Bama but I'm not totally sold that it will. I think as the next wave of forcing for ascent over spreads these storms later into central al we could see their organization improve.
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I'm with you there. The last time I turned my back on a system which was last May, I had a tornado end right down my road a half a mile from my house.
 
Dont know if this is tight rotation or a bow echo of sorts. It is tornado warned thoughScreenshot_20200412-180510_RadarScope.jpgScreenshot_20200412-180516_RadarScope.jpg
 
I find the huge drop-off in updraft helicity tracks as you get closer to the Carolinas Interesting considering the STP is still off the charts. Granted a lot of the tracks occur in areas where the STP is at zero. What even are the updraft helicity tracks. I would think that they would mean the amount of rotation in the storm, while the STP is the difference between upper and lower level wind directions(shear). Why would the updraft helicity tracks be on the very low side in NC? Thoughts?

Edit: This run's HRRR STP is much lower into the triad. From what I've been interpreting the models, I feel like there is some overhype. I may be wrong though, I'm not a severe guy like many of you who are.

Although just to be clear, I agree that this is a very big deal for MS, AL, LO, and GA.
hrrr-conus-se-sig_tor-6779200.pnghrrr-conus-se-upd_hlcy_5000-2000_accum-6790000.png
 
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