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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

Arcc said:
Insane, possibly drops an EF4-EF5 and an hour later is a sheared piece of garbage that is no longer warned.
Click to expand...

Storm behind it disrupted the RFD and then the second storm ingested all that rain cooled air. They essentially killed each other. Were LLLRs higher they most likely both would have overcome and remained intact.


Edit
Looks like their meso's stayed intact. Cycling now.
 
Jefferson Davis County in south Mississippi was just hit by TWO catastrophic tornadoes. This is a school bus destroyed by major tree damage southeast of Prentiss along Hwy 42. Search & rescues are underway in Bassfield at Graves-Key Rd.

?

:

@GeraldHarrisTV
&
@photogBullard
 
Claycochaser said:
Storm behind it disrupted the RFD and then the second storm ingested all that rain cooled air. They essentially killed each other. Were LLLRs higher they most likely both would have overcome and remained intact.
Click to expand...
CENTRAL ALABAMA MAINLY WEST OF I65 THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF THAT HAPPENDING ... VIOLENT LONG TRACK TORNADOES
 
Claycochaser said:
Storm behind it disrupted the RFD and then the second storm ingested all that rain cooled air. They essentially killed each other. Were LLLRs higher they most likely both would have overcome and remained intact.
Click to expand...

Yep, that or shear not be as extreme.

Edit: that said I think 500mb winds need a little more westward backing as well.
 
Looking at future HRRR parameters south central alabama is RIPE. If things get spinning it wont be good.
 
AFD from Memphis earlier. Anyone think the storms along the Cold Front are going to kick into gear?

000
FXUS64 KMEG 122112
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
412 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

.UPDATE...Updated to remove the Tornado watch from North
Mississippi. Redevelopment looks questionable at this time.
Adjusted pops/weather accordingly.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 223 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020/

DISCUSSION...

..SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A tornado watch remains in effect for North Mississippi. The last
few HRRR runs backed off of the 2nd round of thunderstorms this
evening, but has now increased coverage once again. However, the
surface low that was once well defined, tracking just South of
Memphis is much more diffuse as it tracks into West TN. The warm
front remains to our South but should begin to surge North over
the next few hours ushering in mid-60 degree dew points into
portions of North Mississippi. As this deeper moisture arrives, a
shortwave trough and 70kt mid level jet will shift across the
area. Low level shear remains impressive, 0-1km SRH in excess of
400 m2/s2 should be more than sufficient to support supercellular
storms capable of producing tornadoes and widespread damaging
wind. The main limiting factor will be surface based instability,
which will remain limited until the warm front surges North. The
highest potential for a strong long tracked tornado will likely be
right along or just North of the warm front before sunset.

It is highly uncertain if additional storms will develop along the
cold front but if they do, conditions will be favorable for fast
moving short lived tornadoes as well as damaging wind. By
Midnight, the threat of any severe weather should be over.
 
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