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Severe 3/30-4/2 Severe Weather

That is an interesting forecast at this range ? unfortunately my family is visiting next week so not the best time Screenshot_20220323-150147.png
 
GFS continues to show something along these lines. Somebody smarter than me will have to show more relevant maps at this range.
gfs_cape_seus_35.png
 
500mb placement a bit better for discreet convection than the last threat it looks like.
 
Might be interesting here for this one... We were too cold on Monday. Timing looks awful though Screenshot_20220324-155322.png
 
jackendrickwx said:
Day 5 and 6 severe probs added by the SPC. also notes D7 potential in the Carolinas but uncertainty with buoyancy and forcing (shocker)
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Yeah typical carolina split look here, forcing going north, cape chasing remnant qlcs going south.

Looking back over it I will say the 0z euro looked pretty ominous for us vs the gfs
 
SD said:
Yeah typical carolina split look here, forcing going north, cape chasing remnant qlcs going south.

Looking back over it I will say the 0z euro looked pretty ominous for us vs the gfs
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Yeah I was impressed by the shear from the euro. Would have loved to have soundings
 
Convection looks a good bit more broken up, from previous runs for Alabama and Mississippi. Overall a bit better placment for discrete stuff
 
Wind fields look really impressive with this system … large warm sector out ahead of a potent negative titled trough spells trouble … with impressive low level shear showing concerning for discrete activity out ahead main line … also not on 12z euro , system appears slowed down tad, so timing as now for Memphis area thinking early evening maybe now. But all modes severe hazard are on the table thus far . Plenty time watch for changes also meso stuff be more clearer… edit. I do think spc will pull trigger N show higher probs severe weather by end weekend , if things hold
 
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(First Post)

I'm going to have some Severe Weather action on March 30th, it appears linear for my area, but there's a chance that the models will shift into a more discrete mode & a slower storm system, the SPC has a Slight Risk for my area on D5 & the Mississippi River Valley from Illinois to Louisiana & Mississippi on D6

EDIT: It looks like that the bulk of the Severe Weather on D5 is along & west of US-69
 
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tennessee storm said:
Wind fields look really impressive with this system … large warm sector out ahead of a potent negative titled trough spells trouble … with impressive low level shear showing concerning for discrete activity out ahead main line … also not on 12z euro , system appears slowed down tad, so timing as now for Memphis area thinking early evening maybe now. But all modes severe hazard are on the table thus far . Plenty time watch for changes also meso stuff be more clearer… edit. I do think spc will pull trigger N show higher probs severe weather by end weekend , if things hold
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Timing will change with this setup some, always does. as stupid as it sounds you will probably see a shift more east for higher threat area. Like clockwork it always happens lol. Checked some soundings for multiple areas, pretty good veering with winds. Better placement of 500mb winds like arcc said you'd rather have them coming more from west/southwest which they are.
 
Ridiculous hodograph per the GFS. For the state line MS/AL. Low cape and etc. But impressive hodograph.download (2).png
 
gfs_2022032612_105_31.5--90.0.png

S Central MS.
 
NWMSGuy said:
EURO :

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Looks like a crazy day for the Mississippi River Valley, also with Supercells in the Enhanced risk area, I'm not going to be surprised at yet another Moderate Risk for Mississippi, Climo favors Dixie Alley for Severe Storms until at least April/May
 
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