HSVweather
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Reed Timmer in Jackson, MS
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Severe 3/30-4/2 Severe Weather
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Starting to warm up nicely in Birmingham. Feels pretty good
TileDude
Member
Warming up and dew point rising.
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Zander98al
Guest
Bama Ravens
Member
One thought that has gone through my head this morning: Could this event today/tonight be comparable to the morning QLCS that we saw on April 27, 2011 across Mississippi and Alabama? I know we probably won't see the same type of tornadoes embedded in today's QLCS as there were on that morning, but it seems to be potentially an event that falls into the same category of high-impact destructive wind event with embedded tornadoes within the QLCS. Granted, there was probably greater instability on the morning of 4/27/11 than there will be today/tonight.
HSVweather
Member
Huntsville AFD update this morning.
NEAR TERM.
. (Rest of Today)
Issued at 1010 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
Little changes to the overall forecast and hazards expected today and tonight. Surface analysis right now depicts our region in the warm sector with the warm front well north and east of our CWA. Further
west, the cold front is sliding through AR and the TX/LA border with a line of strong/severe storms just out ahead. Hi res CAM guidance has noted a slight weakening trend in the wind field at the moment, which is evident of the slight decrease in magnitude with the squall line. However this will only be temporary as the S/SE wind field is
expected to strengthening later today as the pressure gradient rapidly contracts. Combined with deep layer mixing of the boundary layer for most of the day, we will tap into 65+kt winds at the 850 ha level. As such, will maintain the current High Wind warning in the western zones and Wind Advisory further east. No update to the timing or magnitude of the storms later this afternoon/tonight. Latest guidance continues to show the line approaching NW AL -5-8pm and exiting our CWA after midnight. Main risk for today will be with damaging wind gusts (potentially high end severe thunderstorm winds) and embedded tornadoes within the QLCS. For the severe thunderstorm potential, please be aware that these
winds have the potential to reach tornadic strength (65+mph) outside of any tornado hazard. It's worth mentioning that, although a low chance, there is the potential for some discrete supercelis ahead of the main line IF we can out preform the forecast dewpoints and the timing phases with the potential for max afternoon instability. Again, not very confident in that occurring in our area at the moment. otherwise, forecast is on track.
NEAR TERM.
. (Rest of Today)
Issued at 1010 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
Little changes to the overall forecast and hazards expected today and tonight. Surface analysis right now depicts our region in the warm sector with the warm front well north and east of our CWA. Further
west, the cold front is sliding through AR and the TX/LA border with a line of strong/severe storms just out ahead. Hi res CAM guidance has noted a slight weakening trend in the wind field at the moment, which is evident of the slight decrease in magnitude with the squall line. However this will only be temporary as the S/SE wind field is
expected to strengthening later today as the pressure gradient rapidly contracts. Combined with deep layer mixing of the boundary layer for most of the day, we will tap into 65+kt winds at the 850 ha level. As such, will maintain the current High Wind warning in the western zones and Wind Advisory further east. No update to the timing or magnitude of the storms later this afternoon/tonight. Latest guidance continues to show the line approaching NW AL -5-8pm and exiting our CWA after midnight. Main risk for today will be with damaging wind gusts (potentially high end severe thunderstorm winds) and embedded tornadoes within the QLCS. For the severe thunderstorm potential, please be aware that these
winds have the potential to reach tornadic strength (65+mph) outside of any tornado hazard. It's worth mentioning that, although a low chance, there is the potential for some discrete supercelis ahead of the main line IF we can out preform the forecast dewpoints and the timing phases with the potential for max afternoon instability. Again, not very confident in that occurring in our area at the moment. otherwise, forecast is on track.
HSVweather
Member
NWMSGuy
Member
Thin line and not much activity at the moment. I imagine this will start to change quickly.
BHAMWX
Member
Wind gusts have started in my area
DadOfJax
Member
TD's in the 40s across the eastern 2/3's of AL....so far, this is good news.
Could be a supercell or 2 with a low tor threat along the NC/SC border later as the wedge boundary retreats north. Lots of 3CAPE/tons of low level streamwise vorticity and sfc vorticity along with moisture pooling, interesting little setup 
HSVweather
Member
Latest day 1
HSVweather
Member
74/51 in Madison, AL, sharp gradient as dewpoints are around 60 along the state line in northwest AL.
Sun is out in some areas too
Sun is out in some areas too
Sun here will actually hurt instability. With this much mixing, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if dewpoints bust low.
yeah sun's been blazing here in Huntsville area. Hope it doesn't fuel things up
HSVweather
Member
That’s what I was wondering earlier when I saw the dewpoints dropping this morning. It wouldn’t hurt my feelings lol. I like to track the severe weather but don’t want any damage and other potential impacts that come with it.
I’m actively rooting against any storms. I do not want the roof to blow off the barn I’ve just put $600 of brand new tin on.
NWMSGuy
Member
The Line is moving over Little Rock right now. That is where the Slight and Enhanced Outlook are tightly clustered. I'm thinking the line will start to strengthen soon.