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Severe 3/3-6 2025 Severe

WxBlue said:
View attachment 171494

You aren't kidding. HRRR is a generational tornado outbreak with any kind of thermo. Look at these hodographs over central NC and VA... holy smoke. Kinetics aren't messing around with this system and we are fortunate that it's likely we won't have April 2011-like thermo in place to match the incoming kinetics.
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I have never seen that plot before, and I thought I had seen almost everything.
 
There may not be a consistent answer to this question, but what model do you most rely on when you're within 24 hours of a potential severe weather event to have the best handle on thermodynamics and kinematics?
 
I’m in Kennesaw on the NW side of ATL for this one. Nothing too crazy so far but things might be about to pick up


DISCUSSION...Strongly forced squall line continues its eastward
progression at roughly 30kt. While buoyancy remains weak, very
strong ESRH is noted ahead of the convection. Latest 1km VAD winds
at FFC are 70kt and this may continue to favor stronger flow mixing
down as the linear MCS advances east over the next few hours. With
time, forecast soundings do suggest convection will gradually
weaken, perhaps limiting the downward transfer of flow. Until then,
damaging winds are likely along the line.
 
I will say I am starting to wonder if the storms will become less linear in nature the closer you get to noon for the triangle-eastward. You can kinda see this happening with the line in Monroe where the Tor warning is. It is starting to break from the linear nature


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CaryWx said:
Should this be believed still. High potential for power outages. Really?

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On that map it is hard to differentiate between the medium and high colors for one thing. It looks like the entire eastern part of the state is under a high risk. I think that map is exaggerated but where I live there are lots of trees in my neighborhood so any day with weather like we are having today presents the risk of power outages.
 
be intrigued to see if we can kick up any sfc instability anytime soon along US-1. CAMs seem to be handling timing reasonably well, if a bit behind. pretty classic HSLC out along/east of 95 tho, stupid stupid shear and like maybe 300-500ish sbCAPE.
 
SD said:
If this one had been delayed probably 4-5 hours we would have had some big issues in this area. It looks like it cold get pretty serious for the immediate coastal counties later today
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feel like central nc often ducks the max potential of setups like these with "poor" timing. and yeah one trillion SRH and 9 CAPE for beaufort/hyde/washington counties etc
 
jackendrickwx said:
feel like central nc often ducks the max potential of setups like these with "poor" timing. and yeah one trillion SRH and 9 CAPE for beaufort/hyde/washington counties etc
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It's feels like most of these qlcs events arrive here around the same time of day i assume because they fire up to the west around the same time. It's really what makes April 2011 here such a unicorn imo
 
Good garden rain today. Cool, misty with light rain.

Saw where the Mets discussed straight line wind damage but we haven’t had any wind. Maybe it’s associated with the post frontal passage?
 
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