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Severe 3/3-6 2025 Severe

I'm at work so I can't pull up any SPC maps but all of eastern North Carolina and South Carolina is now under a level three risk for severe weather tomorrow. This caught me off guard somewhat after watching a lot TV meteorologists downplaying the severe weather aspect of this event outside of some gusty winds.
 
Concerned for ENC based on the latest HRRR map. The hodos indicate several strong tornadoes are possible and the helicity tracks from the HRRR indicate this as well. The line breaks up into more discrete cells as it nears 95 corridor and if that happens it could get ugly fast.
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snowlover91 said:
Concerned for ENC based on the latest HRRR map. The hodos indicate several strong tornadoes are possible and the helicity tracks from the HRRR indicate this as well. The line breaks up into more discrete cells as it nears 95 corridor and if that happens it could get ugly fast.
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Wilson County has been a tornado alley of sorts for eastern NC during recent years. When squall lines start breaking up into individual cells you are talking trouble if the right atmospheric ingredients are present. My father was born in Elm City so I know Wilson County well.
 
weather bubba said:
Wilson County has been a tornado alley of sorts for eastern NC during recent years. When squall lines start breaking up into individual cells you are talking trouble if the right atmospheric ingredients are present. My father was born in Elm City so I know Wilson County well.
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There is a reason this area is called Carolina Alley..along with the coastal counties where tropical systems bolster their numbers.

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Winds have been ticking up in the Hermitage near Nashville. I'm not too sure about the type of winds needed to take out power in this area of TN, because I just moved to the area. There are so many houses with powerlines that are crossing underneath large branches. In S. Florida, we usually see the lights start to flicker when we get more consistent gusts above 60MPH. Our highest gust so far at BNA was 47MPH. The worst of the winds looks to be coming in between 7-10PM.

BNA Observations:
 
Wilmington AFD

Kinematics have continued to look more and more impressive. Several
ensemble members of the HREF have trended upward to show 0-1 km SRH
parameters within the 300-400 m2/s2 range. Bulk shear values are
still screaming at 60-70 kts, while 0-1 km shear tries to eclipse 50
kts at times. Even the thermodynamics seem to be waking up a bit,
with MLCAPE potentially getting up to 200-300 J/kg, and MUCAPE
possibly eclipsing 500 J/kg. I don`t want to be too reactive in
watching HREF trends increase, but the bumps in both CAPE and
helicity make me wonder how useful the marine layer will be. There
are questions about effective shear and helicity values, as opposed
to being fixed.
 
59MPH Gust at BNA in Nashville. Cell Service has shut gone down. Tree Branches everywhere, and I've been hearing loud crashes outside.

So, we've exceeded the High Wind Warning Criteria of 57MPH. There were also a 60MPH Gust in Northern GA.

NWS Weather & Hazards

NWS Weather and Hazards Data Viewer
www.wrh.noaa.gov www.wrh.noaa.gov

As I was writing the post, another 2 observations of 59MPH were registered.
 
It is a good thing instability is so meager. This would be a devastating outbreak if dewpoints would have been able to drive northward and lapse rates would have been a bit better.

Even so, it won't take (and isn't taking) much to drag winds down. 80ish mph jet at 5000 ft isn't typical.
 
EmersonGA said:
Winds are absolutely ripping! Strongest Iā€™ve seen in a long time.
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I think when all is said and done, it won't be the severe weather or blizzard aspects of this storm that that will have been the most impactful. It will be the widespread wind damage that occurs outside of thunderstorms.
 
Rain Cold said:
I think when all is said and done, it won't be the severe weather or blizzard aspects of this storm that that will have been the most impactful. It will be the widespread wind damage that occurs outside of thunderstorms.
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I agree. Iā€™ve heard several trees fall but itā€™s too dark to tell where they are.
 
Rain Cold said:
It is a good thing instability is so meager. This would be a devastating outbreak if dewpoints would have been able to drive northward and lapse rates would have been a bit better.

Even so, it won't take (and isn't taking) much to drag winds down. 80ish mph jet at 5000 ft isn't typical.
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You aren't kidding. HRRR is a generational tornado outbreak with any kind of thermo. Look at these hodographs over central NC and VA... holy smoke. Kinematics aren't messing around with this system and we are fortunate that it's likely we won't have April 2011-like thermo in place to match the incoming kinetics.
 
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I will note that the NAM is painting a day similar to what 2/24/16 had with little thermo overlapping with epic kinetics. If these storms can find even just little CAPE... say... 500 to 1000... shouldn't take much to generate a few strong tornadoes like what 2/24/16 had. Would be a classic HSLC day (high shear, low CAPE).
 
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