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Severe 3/3-6 2025 Severe

That 30% has crept East far enough and needs to stop, thanks.
 
is it too early to comment on storm mode? i've heard some say that there could be an opportunity for discrete storms to fire out in front of the larger line but i'm not too sure of the science behind it.
 
hendrik said:
is it too early to comment on storm mode? i've heard some say that there could be an opportunity for discrete storms to fire out in front of the larger line but i'm not too sure of the science behind it.
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Yeah last few runs r showing some forming super cells
Out ahead a strong squall line . Down in northern Louisiana. Parts of. southwest ms…. Starting get pure ugly last few runs. Last night. Euro was nearing a tornado outbreak
 
tennessee storm said:
Yeah last few runs r showing some forming super cells
Out ahead a strong squall line . Down in northern Louisiana. Parts of. southwest ms…. Starting get pure ugly last few runs. Last night. Euro was nearing a tornado outbreak
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what about for the nc storm on the fifth?
 
BufordWX said:
Euro looks pretty nasty along the Mississippi river for Tuesday. Still some questions about instability, but the low has also trended stronger in recent runs. View attachment 171366
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Course instability always early seems
Be underdone … that get more clearer as time gets closer
 
For my area, this seems to be headed towards a decent QLCS. Not gonna have a lot of time to build surface CAPE. However, doesn't take a whole lot of CAPE this time of year for it to get nasty.
 
 
BufordWX said:
Euro looks pretty nasty along the Mississippi river for Tuesday. Still some questions about instability, but the low has also trended stronger in recent runs. View attachment 171366
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The low level wind field is going to be strong. Instability is always a ? but shear can compensate. Still, like others have said, plenty of moisture will be advecting in from the Gulf of Cold Rain. You may see a fall-off toward the east coast, as the line may move through that area during the night/early morning hours.

But man, that parent low is cranking. Almost certainly will see plenty of wind reports. Plus, the general background winds will be strong.
 
WeatherNC said:
Seeing a few marginal TOR soundings over ENC on the 18z GFS, still a good bit earlier than the Euro, a blend of the two would be late afternoon early evening. High shear low cape setup, those are always the toughest to predict.
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I have no clue what is going to happen except for high gradient winds. The GFS brings the front through here before sunrise and has it near the coast by 1pm. That would mean less of a severe threat for much of SC and NC. The latest Euro looks like it has speeded things up a little, coming through my area around 10-12 on Wednesday, and during the afternoon for areas farther east. Dewpoints struggle to reach 60 though for many of us it looks like on both models but 55-58 might just be high enough. to cause trouble.

Edit: the 18z Euro does have 60-62 dewpoints for much of SC except the for the upstate and shows a severe threat for eastern NC and SC.
 
Shaggy said:
Typically this is the general rule but this last year seemed different. I've met or exceeded those wind maps on a few occassions
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It seems to me that the winds out ahead are usually modeled too high, but sometimes the backside winds can be too low. I have seen the models showing gusts around 30mph and we end up with gusts closer to 40 on the backside of systems at least here in upstate SC and across north GA.
 
JHS said:
It seems to me that the winds out ahead are usually modeled too high, but sometimes the backside winds can be too low. I have seen the models showing gusts around 30mph and we end up with gusts closer to 40 on the backside of systems at least here in upstate SC and across north GA.
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A good example was just a couple days ago. Forecast of mid 30s but peaked at 44 Screenshot_20250227_144331_Chrome.jpg
 
NW GA Fan said:
Good. I hope we miss every opportunity this spring. Too many people get hurt in these events.
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Yeah after seeing softball sized hail in Dallas years ago and widespread 100 mph wind gusts on Father's Day 2023 here with no power for 4 days trust me.... I don't get upset when we miss out on severe weather...

That 2023 event was worse than any severe weather I had seen because it hit the entire city unlike a tornado would
 
I know these are overdone, but impressive gusts shown on the Euro as the line moves through MS/AL and even into Georgia. I seem to remember the last event on 2/15-2/16 looking like this a few days out and that delivered quite a punch for many. Wonder if we see something similar
1740885989079.gif
 
Rolltidegal60 said:
As an April 2011 (and current) Tuscaloosa, Alabama resident, I hope it's an epic fail. Never, in my life, before or since, experienced anything so horrific and I hope to never again.
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Yup I was still in Alabama then and I left over 10 years ago now and honestly even now I still struggle with how bad that day was... The fact that many people died. We weren't even that close to one of the big ones and yet I can't watch the coverage without feeling things I rarely feel with weather
 
Rolltidegal60 said:
As an April 2011 (and current) Tuscaloosa, Alabama resident, I hope it's an epic fail. Never, in my life, before or since, experienced anything so horrific and I hope to never again.
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Those things stay with you for life. My grandmother witnessed a big one when she was at U of A in the 1930s and talked about it 70 years later like it was yesterday.
 
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