Here we go, again lol, overall models seem to agree on a system somewhere in the SE capable of producing severe weather, lots of SW flow aloft/divergence in the upper levels ensures forcing/heavy precip/severe possibly 
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Severe 3/24-3/26 possible severe wx
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
-
- Tags
- severe weather
From GSP
By Wednesday, models agree on a shortwave trough spurring coastal
cyclogenesis over the remnant cold frontal band leftover from
Tuesday`s system. Aloft, the polar and subtropical jets align
with the midlevel forcing and could result in rapid deepening
of this system. As a result, a renewed possibility for active
weather on Thursday, as the surface low drags another cold front
through our CWA in the afternoon. QPF is much more impressive
for this system, and with both the GFS and the ECMWF demonstrating
moderate SBCAPE and an 850mb jet producing impressive deep layer
shear, both Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon could bring
another opportunity for thunderstorms. It`s much too early to
dig into either the intensity or timing at this point, but by
Friday evening the last of the frontal precip should have abated,
giving way to dry northeasterly flow.
By Wednesday, models agree on a shortwave trough spurring coastal
cyclogenesis over the remnant cold frontal band leftover from
Tuesday`s system. Aloft, the polar and subtropical jets align
with the midlevel forcing and could result in rapid deepening
of this system. As a result, a renewed possibility for active
weather on Thursday, as the surface low drags another cold front
through our CWA in the afternoon. QPF is much more impressive
for this system, and with both the GFS and the ECMWF demonstrating
moderate SBCAPE and an 850mb jet producing impressive deep layer
shear, both Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon could bring
another opportunity for thunderstorms. It`s much too early to
dig into either the intensity or timing at this point, but by
Friday evening the last of the frontal precip should have abated,
giving way to dry northeasterly flow.
Well this is not good.
Where’s this from
Well this is not good.
NoSnowATL
Member
Not telling
Well this is not good.
Holy $hit, that is a scary-looking sounding. That CAPE is insane!
NoSnowATL
Member
Mild rain?
Wind-driven at that
Overall look reminds me of 4/2-4/3 2017, - the SE Canada vortex, although it’s not far
I want it to storm so bad, especially at night... I want a get scared in bed kinda storm.
Nasty 
Take two everyone! Positions!!! Andddddd action!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Ugly
LickWx
Member
Hiiiyuckkkkk murder ! I did it ! Guilty !
GSP : As is typical, minor variation between model runs in timing the
shortwave and its interaction with the front lead to wider
differences in the weather impacts and their duration. Euro/Canadian
operational solutions depict the new low spinning up closer to the
Ohio Valley, with instability trends that suggest perhaps a discrete
cell threat Thu afternoon, and more of a QLCS threat early Friday
ahead of the cold front. GFS is further south and depicts more
limited instability mainly Thu aftn/evening. Can`t write off the
heavy rain threat entirely, given PWAT values peaking near 1.5" on
GFS and Euro, but right now the strong and veering flow aloft
suggests fast cell motion and severe threat would probably be more
impactful. Worth watching in both respects.
shortwave and its interaction with the front lead to wider
differences in the weather impacts and their duration. Euro/Canadian
operational solutions depict the new low spinning up closer to the
Ohio Valley, with instability trends that suggest perhaps a discrete
cell threat Thu afternoon, and more of a QLCS threat early Friday
ahead of the cold front. GFS is further south and depicts more
limited instability mainly Thu aftn/evening. Can`t write off the
heavy rain threat entirely, given PWAT values peaking near 1.5" on
GFS and Euro, but right now the strong and veering flow aloft
suggests fast cell motion and severe threat would probably be more
impactful. Worth watching in both respects.
Jessy89
Member
Just a bit to early to tell in the Carolinas! The threat is there because the ingredients are there. Location of the low and timing seems a little uncertain.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Wouldn’t surprise me if we deal with more then 1 setup, pretty much all globals hint at another ejecting trough 
This setup However screams mess/crapvection everywhere with perhaps a gulf cluster that slows down northward progression of a warm front
There’s also the chance the shortwave washes out as it heads East and loses the forcing with it
Might as well call it quits now
Lol the ukmet
Yeah this would be nasty, LR UK hasn’t been great tho 
So the crapvection would at least be severe since we’re in warm sector? Lol
If the warm front makes it north, then yes, some models brings in storms before it’s over us which would likely slow progression of one moving north, then you have the cmc/v16 lose forcing as it heads East
For your area yea somehow I’ll win and will chase if needed, it’s climo bro !!! Cabarrus > wake
Euro looks nasty for Dixie alley
Didn’t low SRH limit last setup ? Lol
Soundings from southern Mississippi
Soundings from southern Mississippi
LickWx
Member
Didn’t you have your first moderate threat level in history this week lol!
Nope !!! Had one April 2019 !
oh and I had storms to show for the downgrade still, your already taking Ls and it’s only March !
That’s nasty, no shortage of Low level shear/0-1km SRH this go around, but winds aren’t as backed near the sfc 
Yeesh. Not liking what I'm seeing on the 18z GFS.
When you have a ensemble mean that looks like that, your gonna have issues 
Thread I made on twitter
solid look for severe wx wrt the 18z GEFS, nice 200mb double barrel jet aloft with plenty of divergence = forcing for ascent and plenty of it (further East becomes more questionable), also a S/W trough rounding the base of a longwave trough, looking like Moisture return should be no problem given centered ridge around the Caribbean, so there should be enough instability/llvl moisture, should be plenty of shear in the low/mid/upper levels given the S/W that’s rounding the base of the trough, once again this type of setup hastons of forcing, so this setup could easily become full of convection in the warm sector, however the ingredients are there for severe weather and some formidable severe weather at that next week, something to watch as it’s getting under day 7, plenty of time for changes. For areas further east like the Carolinas, it becomes more questionable, the shortwave trough could eject to far west and we get the overall cape/shear but lack forcing, however severe is possible in these areas late next week, also need to watch for a cluster of storms near the Gulf coast that could slow and progression of a warm front given the first system leaving some energy at H5 around the gulf coast, this could cause some bust potential but to early to speculate on mesoscale details, the look synoptically is there right now
solid look for severe wx wrt the 18z GEFS, nice 200mb double barrel jet aloft with plenty of divergence = forcing for ascent and plenty of it (further East becomes more questionable), also a S/W trough rounding the base of a longwave trough, looking like Moisture return should be no problem given centered ridge around the Caribbean, so there should be enough instability/llvl moisture, should be plenty of shear in the low/mid/upper levels given the S/W that’s rounding the base of the trough, once again this type of setup hastons of forcing, so this setup could easily become full of convection in the warm sector, however the ingredients are there for severe weather and some formidable severe weather at that next week, something to watch as it’s getting under day 7, plenty of time for changes. For areas further east like the Carolinas, it becomes more questionable, the shortwave trough could eject to far west and we get the overall cape/shear but lack forcing, however severe is possible in these areas late next week, also need to watch for a cluster of storms near the Gulf coast that could slow and progression of a warm front given the first system leaving some energy at H5 around the gulf coast, this could cause some bust potential but to early to speculate on mesoscale details, the look synoptically is there right now
Geez 
