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Severe 3/23-26 Severe Weather

This is afternoon discussion for tomorrow from Bham


upper level impulse will move toward the area early in the day
Sunday, supporting weak low pressure along the front across
Eastern Louisiana into Western Mississippi. The front will begin
lifting northward as a warm front, approaching the Interstate 20
corridor by later in the afternoon. Very warm temperatures with
warm advection along with higher dew points moving north through
the day will support increasing low-level destabilization. This
will result in showers and thunderstorms developing pre-dawn down
south and gradually migrating northward through the rest of the
morning hours. Forecast soundings indicate a vertical profile
supportive of supercell structures due to strong wind shear in the
vicinity of the warm front with an initially more elevated
convective mode favoring very large hail, potentially up to golf
ball size. Additionally as we progress through the morning more
surface-based convection is expected near and south of the warm
front, which will support damaging straight-line winds. Due to the
wind shear near the warm front, conditions may support a tornado
or two closer to this feature. Winds will become southerly 6-12
mph. High temperatures are tricky as convection will be ongoing
across much of the area but expect temperatures to reach into the
upper 70s north with readings near the mid 80s far south.

05
 
NWTENN said:
This was a significant TOR potential day with a very high impact tornado. Event well forecast. Any idea why this thread didn't get any traction on this forum?
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Unfortunately it might be because it happens so often now, unlike winter storms that get lots of discussion.
 
NWTENN said:
This was a significant TOR potential day with a very high impact tornado. Event well forecast. Any idea why this thread didn't get any traction on this forum?
Click to expand...
was a follower almost everyday, up until a yr or so back. some ideas get pushed some got deleted. (not saying its the same now). So just skim once awhile for things like this tornado. I liked this site better than American, it was worse. your in the click or you isn't. think Ryan hall had some good videos on this event a few days back. Been on vacation and did follow this one .
 
Shaggy said:
For me I had looked at it a couple days back but really spent the last couple afternoons outside just enjoying the sun and had sort of forgot about it. Horrible situation
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Same here. Enjoying outside and didn’t watch it much as the look for Alabama was very marginal.
 
NWTENN said:
This was a significant TOR potential day with a very high impact tornado. Event well forecast. Any idea why this thread didn't get any traction on this forum?
Click to expand...
I have wondered the same thing with the last few severe events. Thought maybe this forum had lost most of the AL/MS following of the past. Thanks for the TW reminder. I come to these forums in times of severe weather threat for more detailed info. This forum seems more geared to Carolina wintry wx. these days.
 
Finally looking at tomorrow evening. Not gonna be surprised if a large moderate risk is added across southern MS/AL. If the supercells that form can stay semi-discrete and not congeal into a multicellular mess, there is potential for big problems. Not only do you have SBcape over 2000 for a large area, but a crapload of directional shear with the 500mb vector out of the west. Watch storm mode and how much the LLJ ramps up in the evening. Not surprisingly the WRFs and 0-3km NAM light this area up around evening.
 
Out and about this morning and found the current location of the surface boundary across central Talladega county. Temp dropped six degrees in six miles or so.
 
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Those training cells would be of concern if they can get clean air in front of them. They have that look
 
Storm just west of Prattville with some weak rotation.33807026-8590-4C0E-B37A-A5A4D9AB96E2.png
 
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Shaggy said:
Those training cells would be of concern if they can get clean air in front of them. They have that look
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Really right now the only thing stopping them is lack of low level shear which will increase as the day goes by and especially into the evening. However, definitely still dominantly supercell storm mode.
 
The ARW shows how this even will bust if it does. While westerly wind vectors at 500mb are a check mark for supercells across the SE most of the time; this time it also parallels the surface boundary. It won’t take much to congeal into a convective junk pile.
 
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