Mesoscale Discussion 0202
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021
Areas affected...Portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest
Alabama
Concerning...Tornado Watch
29...
Valid 171702Z - 171800Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 29 continues.
SUMMARY...A strong tornado threat will increase from Wayne county,
Mississippi to Marengo and Wilcox counties in Alabama over the next
1-2 hours.
DISCUSSION...Shower activity through the morning has continued to
deepen and a strong storm has developed in Jones County, MS. This
storm has quickly exhibited low-level rotation which is indicative
of the favorable low-level shear profile in this region. SPC
mesoanalysis shows an area of 300 to 400 m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH in this
region which is a result of southeasterly surface winds in local
observations in this area and a 50 knot south-southwesterly
low-level jet around 1.5km to 2km sampled by the KMOB and KDGX VWP.
The ongoing storm in this region in addition to any subsequent
development could pose a significant tornado threat given the
aforementioned favorable low-level shear profile and STP values
around 2 to 3.
..Bentley/Grams.. 03/17/2021