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Severe 3/17/21 Severe Weather Outbreak Al/Ms/Tn/Ar nowcast

weatherfide said:
Based on the level of activity on this board and looking at current model trends, I don't believe them. Similar in that there may be tornadoes in the same areas, but not the same as in every freaking storm that fired up made a giant wedge like in 2011.
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You are basing your opinion of them being wrong on weather board traffic? BWAHAHAHAHA
 
jdenmark said:
We've had a good bit of rain, thunder and lightning in North Alabama all morning. Will that do anything to sap the energy from later storms for this part of the state?
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It’s all going to depend how far the warm front comes north, higher dewpoints, SBCAPE. I’ve been streaming Brad Travis on Facebook live as he has been discussing and showing various models.
 
HSVweather said:
It’s all going to depend how far the warm front comes north, higher dewpoints, SBCAPE. I’ve been streaming Brad Travis on Facebook live as he has been discussing and showing various models.
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I’m watching the SPC meso surface one page as well that has the temp/dew points
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
But there will be less daytime heating though so wouldnt that offset the better dynamics ?
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Below is pasted from the latest day 1 text


By late afternoon and into early tonight, a low-level jet segment
will strengthen to 50-60 kt across MS/AL and the midlevel trough
approaches from the west, contributing to very strong low-level
shear (0-1 km SRH of 400-500 m2/s2). Buoyancy will be slow to
decrease after sunset and with eastward extent based on the
prevalence of upper 60s dewpoints, while very favorable wind
profiles will maintain the threat for long-track, intense tornadoes
with both warm sector supercells, as well as supercells within the
broken band along and ahead of the surface wind shift progressing
eastward across MS by early tonight. West central GA appears to be
the eastern edge of the primary severe threat area through tonight.
 
HRRRSE_prec_radar_009.png
 
With the steep mid-level lapse rates in place and strong LLJ, I'm not convinced the extensive cloud cover will make a difference.

EDIT: Especially with the warm sector relatively lacking in ongoing activity.
 
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