Discuss the 3/17/21 outbreak here. 3/18 can be discussed in the existing thread
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Severe 3/17/21 Severe Weather Outbreak Al/Ms/Tn/Ar nowcast
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Z
Zander98al
Guest
DadOfJax
Member
Perfect SD....much appreciated!
CCAir90
Member
Avid lurker here. I'm located in Jackson, TN, east-northeast of Memphis. Very much invested in today... may not be able to post much, due to work requirements (public safety), but will try to update for MBY.
Warm front appears to be passing over right now. It's weird outside, too... you can tell something is amiss. Temp has risen dramatically this morning, and it's storming yet fog has formed in the past ~20 minutes. Frontal pressure trough passage and wind shift is ongoing, for those of you interested in the warm front's progress. I'll let you know if clearing gets going in earnest here in West TN.
(P.S. If you're a fellow West Tennessean, feel free to private message me. Or anyone, really, but you know
.)
Warm front appears to be passing over right now. It's weird outside, too... you can tell something is amiss. Temp has risen dramatically this morning, and it's storming yet fog has formed in the past ~20 minutes. Frontal pressure trough passage and wind shift is ongoing, for those of you interested in the warm front's progress. I'll let you know if clearing gets going in earnest here in West TN.
(P.S. If you're a fellow West Tennessean, feel free to private message me. Or anyone, really, but you know
.)
Oh ---- those MS temps
CAPE is surging
jdenmark
Member
We've had a good bit of rain, thunder and lightning in North Alabama all morning. Will that do anything to sap the energy from later storms for this part of the state?
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Guy on TWC says this could be similar to 4/27/11, although not quite as bad
13z HRRR UH swaths
Guy on TWC says this could be similar to 4/27/11, although not quite as bad
Umm that's like Voldemort of Severe weather you just don't say it name... I hope for everyone sake he's wrong
blitzgunner
Member
It is still pretty cloudy in Birmingham. If the sun can’t break out today does that lessen the chance of tornadoes occurring?
12z BMX sounding. I imagine its got more of an inverted V look at low levels now since temp should be increasing
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Based on the level of activity on this board and looking at current model trends, I don't believe them. Similar in that there may be tornadoes in the same areas, but not the same as in every freaking storm that fired up made a giant wedge like in 2011.Guy on TWC says this could be similar to 4/27/11, although not quite as bad
Yeah I think that's a hard pass for me. My town got hit 2x and my county had the highest number of tornadoes in the state ?. Praying that this system busts but I know that's probably not gonna happen. Everyone stay safe over the next couple of daysGuy on TWC says this could be similar to 4/27/11, although not quite as bad
Unless the wedge hangs in, no.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
I just pray that nobody dies and everyone who lives in a mobile home does the smart thing by finding a sturdier building.
Jrips2710
Member
I’d say it can’t hurt us to have less sun. That should only be a positive if you’re looking for less severe. But honestly it probably won’t matter due to the other dynamics at play later. Starting to get some breaks in the clouds per satellite in areas north and east of Birmingham.
Strong wording
DadOfJax
Member
You are basing your opinion of them being wrong on weather board traffic? BWAHAHAHAHA
Jrips2710
Member
From BMX
HSVweather
Member
It’s all going to depend how far the warm front comes north, higher dewpoints, SBCAPE. I’ve been streaming Brad Travis on Facebook live as he has been discussing and showing various models.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
It says it will peak this evening into tonight. Isn't it unusual for it to peak in the night time hours ? I wonder why it will be stronger tonight than during the day today ?
HSVweather
Member
I’m watching the SPC meso surface one page as well that has the temp/dew points
HSVweather
Member
Better dynamics come into play tonight
Dewpoint Dan
Member
But there will be less daytime heating though so wouldnt that offset the better dynamics ?
49 weather
Member
In 1974 the town of Guin was hit by an F5 (term used then) just after 9 pm and it was 69 degrees at the time.
HSVweather
Member
Below is pasted from the latest day 1 text
By late afternoon and into early tonight, a low-level jet segment
will strengthen to 50-60 kt across MS/AL and the midlevel trough
approaches from the west, contributing to very strong low-level
shear (0-1 km SRH of 400-500 m2/s2). Buoyancy will be slow to
decrease after sunset and with eastward extent based on the
prevalence of upper 60s dewpoints, while very favorable wind
profiles will maintain the threat for long-track, intense tornadoes
with both warm sector supercells, as well as supercells within the
broken band along and ahead of the surface wind shift progressing
eastward across MS by early tonight. West central GA appears to be
the eastern edge of the primary severe threat area through tonight.
DadOfJax
Member
NO NO NO
HSVweather
Member
development south of Tuscaloosa
Its awful early. Could this be considered warm sector contamination?
Latest HRRR has a supercell riding the boundary north of BHM. That isn’t good.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
??
With the steep mid-level lapse rates in place and strong LLJ, I'm not convinced the extensive cloud cover will make a difference.
EDIT: Especially with the warm sector relatively lacking in ongoing activity.
EDIT: Especially with the warm sector relatively lacking in ongoing activity.
farleydawg792
Member
Jrips2710
Member
