• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Severe 3/1-4 SEVERE WEATHER

NAM Skew-T Athens GA is between 6-10pm -ish. IF I am reading this Skew-T correctly, it shows that surface winds start from the S and gradually shift W as height increases. Wind speeds also increase with height. Helicity shows 315 at 1km and 445 at 3km, both significantly elevated. Shear starts at 37 at 1km, then increases to 63 and 60 at 1km and 6km respectively. MLCAPE (mixed layer convective available potential energy) is also elevated at 1175.

The shift due west along with elevated helicity and shear, combined with increased CAPE is what puts us at potential risk for severe weather/tornadoes.

I'm new to reading soundings, please correct me if I have anything wrong here. Not sure how reliable NAM soundings are at 4 days out either.
 

Attachments

  • nam_2023022812_084_34.05--83.45.png
    nam_2023022812_084_34.05--83.45.png
    244.6 KB · Views: 41
18z NAM looks interesting for Georgia on Friday. Very dry aloft and capped with little precip depicted. Could be a rare instance of Dixie/SE classic or even LP discreet supercells. Meanwhile Thursday looks more like a classic high precip dixie event with messy convective mode.
 
The parameters in West-Central Georgia at 21z are pretty intense. Helicity over 450 and Scape around 1500. This is in LaGrange, GA, where we have had 2 tornadoes so far this year already.
nam_2023022818_075_33.06--84.85.png
 
Stevo24 said:
What about upstate sc? Maybe it will get her later in the evening to lessen the severity?
Click to expand...
Looks maybe a bit more QLCS. Watching something right now and then will take a peak at this evenings model guidance to update you
 
day2otlk_0700.gif


day2probotlk_0700_torn.gif


day2probotlk_0700_wind.gif


day2probotlk_0700_hail.gif
 
I won't post the forecast discussion but reading it they seem to be really in on the wind threat associated with the QLCS, they also did mention a few strong tornadoes might be possible.
 
Stevo24 said:
What about upstate sc? Maybe it will get her later in the evening to lessen the severity?
Click to expand...
If I had to guess, it will mostly be a rain and straight line wind issue here especially closer to the state line where we can get some additional lift. Maybe some isolated tornadoes down towards I20 if you get a discrete cell to pop up, but really not nearly as worrisome as this was a week ago as the line is drying out as it approaches us since this thing has backed up so far to the NW.
 
The threat is looking pretty legit for East AL thru GA on Friday... Timing usually dictates that these systems usually get going in West AL and fizzle out by time it passes thru Atlanta but this time looks like the front is coming right into GA by midday
 
malak05 said:
The threat is looking pretty legit for East AL thru GA on Friday... Timing usually dictates that these systems usually get going in West AL and fizzle out by time it passes thru Atlanta but this time looks like the front is coming right into GA by midday
Click to expand...
Yeah it’s slowed down a ton. Definitely could be a rare afternoon threat for us. Wonder if we see a Day 2 enhanced tonight
 
Continue seeing elevated CAPE, helicity and shear for Athens GA area for Friday around 4pm. If only the neighbors would cut down the dying/dead pine tree just over the property line... Mother nature may take it down for them, just hope it doesn't fall on either of our houses.

gfs_2023030112_057_33.75--83.25.png
 
tractor girl said:
Continue seeing elevated CAPE, helicity and shear for Athens GA area for Friday around 4pm. If only the neighbors would cut down the dying/dead pine tree just over the property line... Mother nature may take it down for them, just hope it doesn't fall on either of our houses.

View attachment 133798
Click to expand...
Pretty impressive sounding.
 
iGRXY said:
If I had to guess, it will mostly be a rain and straight line wind issue here especially closer to the state line where we can get some additional lift. Maybe some isolated tornadoes down towards I20 if you get a discrete cell to pop up, but really not nearly as worrisome as this was a week ago as the line is drying out as it approaches us since this thing has backed up so far to the NW.
Click to expand...
My concern is how dry the soundings are. The one Tractor Girl pulled has no saturated layers (no precip = no storms). You're not going to get tornadoes without at least some convection. These storms look like they are going to be very far apart, but if they can get going, they might ruin someone's day.
 

Attachments

  • Screenshot 2023-03-01 153310.png
    Screenshot 2023-03-01 153310.png
    270.3 KB · Views: 35
Expecting a Tornado Watch for my area soon according to the latest MD from SPC. Should make for an interesting evening.
 
weatherfide said:
SPC seems concerned about the lack of convection for GA/SC, too.

Storm Prediction Center Apr 5, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
Click to expand...
18Z GFS is very dry for Friday's system around Atlanta and continues the trend of weakening the dynamics.
 
The big question right now is whether or not storms will pop and be able to take advantage of the great environment depicted over much of Georgia. RAP has been trending wetter near the surface, which in turn increases CAPE and also increases the chance that we do see a few discreet cells form along the dry line. Below is a RAP sounding from near Atlanta
2023030121_RAP_048_33.93,-84.19_severe_ml.png


You can see the improved moisture near the ground and as a result, CAPE has come up, Kinematics have also improved throughout the day on RAP. At this range, RAP and SREF are the guidance with the greatest weight for me because they are fed the most data at initialization, compared to GFS, NAM, and others.
1677712129381.png1677712144280.png

One thing to also keep in mind is that CAMS at this range have a notorious dry and lack-of-convection bias. With that in mind, here's the latest MMFS 1km, which keeps most convection at bay despite a great environment.
radar (34).gif
 
jackendrickwx said:
That low is just so far away, best threat is probably gonna be Nashville east up in TN and even Kentucky
Click to expand...
The ingredients are there, but like you said, forcing is just a massive issue here. But I can nearly guarantee you that something will spin along 85 late tomorrow afternoon in the Carolina tornado alley.
 
Mitch West said:
The ingredients are there, but like you said, forcing is just a massive issue here. But I can nearly guarantee you that something will spin along 85 late tomorrow afternoon in the Carolina tornado alley.
Click to expand...
Yeah also worth watching retreating wedge boundary into NC/VA
 
45% hatched probs for large hail in DFW today, and the moderate risk has bewn expanded NW to include all of North Texas.

Could be a fun day.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top