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Severe 3/1-4 SEVERE WEATHER

tractor girl said:
Continue seeing elevated CAPE, helicity and shear for Athens GA area for Friday around 4pm. If only the neighbors would cut down the dying/dead pine tree just over the property line... Mother nature may take it down for them, just hope it doesn't fall on either of our houses.

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Pretty impressive sounding.
 
iGRXY said:
If I had to guess, it will mostly be a rain and straight line wind issue here especially closer to the state line where we can get some additional lift. Maybe some isolated tornadoes down towards I20 if you get a discrete cell to pop up, but really not nearly as worrisome as this was a week ago as the line is drying out as it approaches us since this thing has backed up so far to the NW.
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My concern is how dry the soundings are. The one Tractor Girl pulled has no saturated layers (no precip = no storms). You're not going to get tornadoes without at least some convection. These storms look like they are going to be very far apart, but if they can get going, they might ruin someone's day.
 

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Expecting a Tornado Watch for my area soon according to the latest MD from SPC. Should make for an interesting evening.
 
weatherfide said:
SPC seems concerned about the lack of convection for GA/SC, too.

Storm Prediction Center Jan 22, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
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18Z GFS is very dry for Friday's system around Atlanta and continues the trend of weakening the dynamics.
 
The big question right now is whether or not storms will pop and be able to take advantage of the great environment depicted over much of Georgia. RAP has been trending wetter near the surface, which in turn increases CAPE and also increases the chance that we do see a few discreet cells form along the dry line. Below is a RAP sounding from near Atlanta
2023030121_RAP_048_33.93,-84.19_severe_ml.png


You can see the improved moisture near the ground and as a result, CAPE has come up, Kinematics have also improved throughout the day on RAP. At this range, RAP and SREF are the guidance with the greatest weight for me because they are fed the most data at initialization, compared to GFS, NAM, and others.
1677712129381.png1677712144280.png

One thing to also keep in mind is that CAMS at this range have a notorious dry and lack-of-convection bias. With that in mind, here's the latest MMFS 1km, which keeps most convection at bay despite a great environment.
radar (34).gif
 
jackendrickwx said:
That low is just so far away, best threat is probably gonna be Nashville east up in TN and even Kentucky
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The ingredients are there, but like you said, forcing is just a massive issue here. But I can nearly guarantee you that something will spin along 85 late tomorrow afternoon in the Carolina tornado alley.
 
Mitch West said:
The ingredients are there, but like you said, forcing is just a massive issue here. But I can nearly guarantee you that something will spin along 85 late tomorrow afternoon in the Carolina tornado alley.
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Yeah also worth watching retreating wedge boundary into NC/VA
 
45% hatched probs for large hail in DFW today, and the moderate risk has bewn expanded NW to include all of North Texas.

Could be a fun day.
 
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