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Severe 3/1-4 SEVERE WEATHER

NAM Skew-T Athens GA is between 6-10pm -ish. IF I am reading this Skew-T correctly, it shows that surface winds start from the S and gradually shift W as height increases. Wind speeds also increase with height. Helicity shows 315 at 1km and 445 at 3km, both significantly elevated. Shear starts at 37 at 1km, then increases to 63 and 60 at 1km and 6km respectively. MLCAPE (mixed layer convective available potential energy) is also elevated at 1175.

The shift due west along with elevated helicity and shear, combined with increased CAPE is what puts us at potential risk for severe weather/tornadoes.

I'm new to reading soundings, please correct me if I have anything wrong here. Not sure how reliable NAM soundings are at 4 days out either.
 

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18z NAM looks interesting for Georgia on Friday. Very dry aloft and capped with little precip depicted. Could be a rare instance of Dixie/SE classic or even LP discreet supercells. Meanwhile Thursday looks more like a classic high precip dixie event with messy convective mode.
 
The parameters in West-Central Georgia at 21z are pretty intense. Helicity over 450 and Scape around 1500. This is in LaGrange, GA, where we have had 2 tornadoes so far this year already.
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Stevo24 said:
What about upstate sc? Maybe it will get her later in the evening to lessen the severity?
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Looks maybe a bit more QLCS. Watching something right now and then will take a peak at this evenings model guidance to update you
 
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I won't post the forecast discussion but reading it they seem to be really in on the wind threat associated with the QLCS, they also did mention a few strong tornadoes might be possible.
 
Stevo24 said:
What about upstate sc? Maybe it will get her later in the evening to lessen the severity?
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If I had to guess, it will mostly be a rain and straight line wind issue here especially closer to the state line where we can get some additional lift. Maybe some isolated tornadoes down towards I20 if you get a discrete cell to pop up, but really not nearly as worrisome as this was a week ago as the line is drying out as it approaches us since this thing has backed up so far to the NW.
 
The threat is looking pretty legit for East AL thru GA on Friday... Timing usually dictates that these systems usually get going in West AL and fizzle out by time it passes thru Atlanta but this time looks like the front is coming right into GA by midday
 
malak05 said:
The threat is looking pretty legit for East AL thru GA on Friday... Timing usually dictates that these systems usually get going in West AL and fizzle out by time it passes thru Atlanta but this time looks like the front is coming right into GA by midday
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Yeah it’s slowed down a ton. Definitely could be a rare afternoon threat for us. Wonder if we see a Day 2 enhanced tonight
 
Continue seeing elevated CAPE, helicity and shear for Athens GA area for Friday around 4pm. If only the neighbors would cut down the dying/dead pine tree just over the property line... Mother nature may take it down for them, just hope it doesn't fall on either of our houses.

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