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Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

This year's hurricane season has been frustrating and hard to predict for forecasters and casual weather watchers. The latest disturbance that is being watched is typical for an untypical season like the one we are having. If that system stalls out over Hispaniola as the models are suggesting it will be ripped to shreds by the mountainous terrain and will pose no threat anywhere else as a tropical system.
 
The 0Z UKMET once again has just a rather weak low (not even a TC on the textual output; it has yet to show TCG in the Caribbean on this output though it awhile back had several runs with TCG east of the Lesser Antilles) and again into Nicaragua. The last 5 runs have shown a weak low either hitting Nicaragua (0Z 10/19, 12Z 10/18), barely E of Nic. but heading into it (0Z 10/18, 12Z 10/17), or still 200 miles E of Nic. but likely headed into it (0Z 10/17).

Looking at the H5 vorticity, it appears that as the AOI on the TWO comes into the E Car that a portion of it turns sharply right like the GFS but unlike that model it never develops. Then what looks like a split from this, possibly incorporating additional vorticity coming off northern S America, causes the weak low to move into the SW Caribbean, which then goes into Nicaragua.

So, the UKMET remains a SW outlier. I should add that yesterday’s 12Z JMA is similar and it has been similar all of the way back to the 12Z 10/15 run. So, the JMA has had 4 12Z runs in a row with just a weak low into Nicaragua or just offshore headed there.

Thus the UKMET and JMA have a good chance to both either fail badly or end up doing the best of the major operationals with this.

0Z 10/19 UKMET 156:
IMG_4902.png

12Z 10/18 JMA 168:
IMG_4901.png
 
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Of course, I always look for a prominent "starter" event like a deep trough or combination with a western Atlantic Basin hurricane. There is good support for a major system affecting the Greater Antilles in the longer term, then accelerating north and possibly merging or phasing with a big cold trough complex close to the East Coast. It is very early in the game, but the waters are very warm and the cPk air mass will likely head toward Texas and Mexico before pushing through Dixie. If a gap is present, the big cyclonic circulation may track due north or possibly undergo a jog toward Virginia, the Mid-Atlantic or New England. For all of this to happen, we must see a strong Rex or Omega block in Nunavut AR. And should this cyclonic path occur, we can finally start to get rid of the "Indian Summer In Overdrive" pattern.





Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE
 
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