lexxnchloe
Member
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
That TS N of Hispaniola on the 18Z GFS is actually from the current E MDR lemon about to leave Africa fwiw. The 12Z Euro takes it to just offshore NC…again fwiw since we’re talking way out in fantasyland.
Atlantic may get marginally favorable in a few days and last through about day 7. Pattern looks to still favor passing development west if it doesn't find the weakness in the far east Atlantic. Its still not a classic well west into the US pattern look with no ridging over SE Canada but we could see a coastal scraper
Per Joe Bastardi yesterday in the free video, this is and will likely end up being the quietest Labor Day weekend for the globe as a whole tropically (not Atlantic specifically as 2024, for one, was equally quiet) of most of our lifetimes. There was just an Invest in the EPAC and the remnants of a TD in SE Asia. That was it, which is fascinating!
lexxnchloe
Member
Followup: As a result of newly formed TS Kiko in the EPAC, 2025 is no longer the quietest Labor Day weekend tropically globally of Joe Bastardi’s lifetime. Why? Going back to 1950:
-1980: no TC in EPAC, WPAC, or N Indian. The only TC was TD7 forming 8PM Sun in the NATL and lasting through Mon. Thus, 2025 now having a TS already beats 1980 globally.
-1991 is debatable:
-no TC in EPAC or N Indian
-WPAC had a dissipating Harry, probably down to only a TD, on Sat, and a new TD on Mon
-NATL: TD 5 dissipated on Sat
-So, unlike 2025, 1991 had no TS+ but there were 3 TDs during the weekend.
Thanks, lexx. The 12Z models today are much more active for the E MDR lemon than the runs from 24 hours ago.
12Z models for the E MDR lemon:
-Euro has a MH hit Bermuda on 9/14 (fwiw)
-GFS has a H pass 250 miles E of Bermuda on 9/13 (fwiw)
-Icon that Lexx posted at 168: has a minimal TS moving ~due W at 180 hours near 16N, 45W. That would be far enough S when also considering its near due W movement and a 600 dam H5 high to its N to be a potential concern for at least the NE Caribbean.
-CMC has a TD that later dissipates.
-UKMET has two separate weak lows and no TC. I’m throwing this weird solution out since it’s a clear outlier.
-JMA has a TD the furthest S of any major model with a TC. It’s at 14N, 45W, and moving WSW (unlike any other model with a TC) at end of its run (192). If that were to be real, it could be a legit concern at least for the Lesser Antilles. But all others are up at 16-19N then. And this is the JMA. An outlier JMA, especially to the left, is usually wrong. But we’ll see.
Last edited: