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Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

GaWx said:
The 12Z EPS has a notable signal near midmonth for a TC formation (~25%) in the S Gulf with them moving mainly N to WNW and then hitting or threatening to hit from NE MX through TX/LA. But this could be mainly gone on the 0Z for all we know since this run looks much different vs earlier runs and its way out in the unreliable late week 2.
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Followup:
Not surprisingly after a sudden uptick on yesterday’s 12Z EPS late in week 2 for the W Gulf, the 0Z backed down notably, especially for TX threats although it still has a couple of W Gulf TCs with a 955 into LA and a 990 mb into MX. The 12Z had had ~8 TS+ including a 927 into LA, 968 into TX, and 961 into MX along with 3 hurricanes threatening at the end still in the Gulf.
 
Not sure if it's from the same system but it looks like the gefs has a few land falling members I just didn't dig deep enough to see if it's from the Eastern MDR system or something different
 
Looks like one threat is from something that forms down around Cuba and landfalls over GA/SC border and then a few members seem to break off to the west woth the E MDR system and landfalls over NC.

System moving onshore is new development the one just off the Bahamas is the E Mdr system that eventually hits NC.

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_51.png
 
Yeah, I wouldn't be on the east side of this one, but I think I'll pass on this run, no thanks.

Good thing it's in kicks and giggles land, though I wonder if whether the pattern setup to potentially mean this causes trouble happens more within day 10.

Of course, I say I'll pass on this and the next frame puts the decaying core over ME.
 
12Z UKMET: N of 0Z…aiming for just N of Leewards

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.8N 43.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2025 96 13.8N 43.4W 1012 25
0000UTC 08.09.2025 108 13.9N 46.1W 1011 28
1200UTC 08.09.2025 120 13.9N 48.8W 1010 28
0000UTC 09.09.2025 132 14.3N 51.3W 1009 31
1200UTC 09.09.2025 144 15.6N 53.6W 1010 32
0000UTC 10.09.2025 156 16.8N 56.0W 1010 32
1200UTC 10.09.2025 168 17.8N 58.6W 1010 34
 
It slows down enough to miss the trough....and that's about as "Hugoish" as could be replicated. It's believable but is it likely ? Gotta have a storm first.....
Hugo hit SC 9/21.....this one is 9/18.


gfs_mslpa_atl_fh258-354.gif
 
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NCSNOW said:
10,000ft mtns is what kills it. Fact its there and that far south before hitting the shredder, pours more fuel on the fire for the potential / still 10 days out.

View attachment 174706
View attachment 174707
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Yeah, something has changed in the modeling.....don't have that warm fuzzy feeling of North and away anymore. Actually was prepared to ignore the whole thing.....
 
GFS has been block happy the last several runs. If the storm is far enough south, and the GFS is right about the blocking in eastern Canada and near Newfoundland, then the US is definitely at risk.

gfs_z500a_us_58.png

The Euro and EPS have had the block back farther west and a weaker system altogether.

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-z500_anom-8196800.png
 
Yeah, it looked as if it was going to exit stage right, but then the ridging builds back in and it might shift this storm into the coast.

GEFS looks interesting to start off. Split idea. Most seem north of the OP runs, but there's a cluster to the south.
 
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