accu35
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Not now!! Read carefully.
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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread
- Thread starter lexxnchloe
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Brent
Member
The peak of the season is still a month away...
NCSNOW
Member
Yep, sept 15th. If you look at Graph charts its pretty flat June 1st through Aug 15th,then goes straight up vertical to sept 15, before descending down and flat linning once again from 0ct 15- November
JHS
Member
A whole lot can and will probably happen in the tropics yet. If I remember right, in 2004 we had not had a named storm yet and look how that turned out. Charley, Gaston, Francis, Ivan and Jeanne.
2024 has had 2 CONUS H landfalls by Aug 5th. Since 1851, there have been only 8 other seasons with 2+ by then with 7 of those 8 having exactly 2:
Year: # of CONUS H LFs by 8/5; # for 8/6+; *ASO ENSO ONI:
-2024: 2; ?; ?
-2020: 2; 4; -1.2
-2005: 2; 3; -0.0
-1959: 2; 1; -0.3
-1936: 2; 1; -0.3
-1934: 2; 1; -0.1
-1916: 2; 2; -1.4
-1909: 2; 3; -1.0
-1886: 4; 2; -0.8
-So, only one season (1886) since 1851 has had more CONUS H landfalls by 8/5 than 2024
-All 8 seasons had at least one 8/6+ CONUS H landfall with a range of 1-4 and an average of 2.1
-The 5 seasons with 2-4 8/6+ CONUS H landfalls (avg of 3) had an average -0.9 in ASO
-The 3 seasons with only one 8/6+ CONUS H landfall averaged -0.2 in ASO
-Most likely the 2024 ASO RONI will be much closer to -0.8 than to -0.2, which implies we may be headed to ~3 more CONUS H landfalls this season for a rare total of ~5, a scary thought; only 1886, 1893, 1985, 2004, 2005, and 2020 had 5+ (5-6)
*ASO: used RONI for 1950+ and Webb ONI pre 1950
Year: # of CONUS H LFs by 8/5; # for 8/6+; *ASO ENSO ONI:
-2024: 2; ?; ?
-2020: 2; 4; -1.2
-2005: 2; 3; -0.0
-1959: 2; 1; -0.3
-1936: 2; 1; -0.3
-1934: 2; 1; -0.1
-1916: 2; 2; -1.4
-1909: 2; 3; -1.0
-1886: 4; 2; -0.8
-So, only one season (1886) since 1851 has had more CONUS H landfalls by 8/5 than 2024
-All 8 seasons had at least one 8/6+ CONUS H landfall with a range of 1-4 and an average of 2.1
-The 5 seasons with 2-4 8/6+ CONUS H landfalls (avg of 3) had an average -0.9 in ASO
-The 3 seasons with only one 8/6+ CONUS H landfall averaged -0.2 in ASO
-Most likely the 2024 ASO RONI will be much closer to -0.8 than to -0.2, which implies we may be headed to ~3 more CONUS H landfalls this season for a rare total of ~5, a scary thought; only 1886, 1893, 1985, 2004, 2005, and 2020 had 5+ (5-6)
*ASO: used RONI for 1950+ and Webb ONI pre 1950
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lexxnchloe
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lexxnchloe
Member
Henry2326
Member
The ICON worries me way more than the EURO....
00Z and it shows up again in 06Z
00Z and it shows up again in 06Z
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NoSnowATL
Member
Fishy
Henry2326
Member
12z GFS and CMC both show the low at the same position as the ICON just before 40W and move toward Dominican Republic, same path as ICON.
Henry2326
Member
Not on GFS. pushing toward cuba/gulf.
Henry2326
Member
12z GFS...initializing same as ICON and CMC.
Shaggy
Member
Euro will be interesting with a storm just NE of Bahamas
lexxnchloe
Member
The 12Z Euro ends the run with a TC at 30N, 71W moving NNE aiming W of Bermuda as it recurves due to a trough.
lexxnchloe
Member
Henry2326
Member
Loos like GFS, no surprise, is the only one going further west.
lexxnchloe
Member
The euro has taken it further west each run
Henry2326
Member
It's a fish storm where it's forecasted.
The much more credible 12Z Euro ensemble (since this is 10 days out) has only ~50% that are safe recurves with regard to CONUS, which is a lower % than recent EPS runs. The other 50% are either close to or actually hit the US, mainly E coast vs Gulf. NC northward and the NE in particular looks to be potentially at risk as much as any US region on this run anyway.
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