Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread

[Henry2326]

The much more credible 12Z Euro ensemble (since this is 10 days out) has only ~50% that are safe recurves with regard to CONUS, which is a lower % than recent EPS runs. The other 50% are either close to or actually hit the US, mainly E coast vs Gulf. NC northward and the NE in particular looks to be potentially at risk as much as any US region on this run anyway.

Well we will do this all over again next week....lol

 

[lexxnchloe]

It's a fish storm where it's forecasted.

Yes but it gets further west from a few days ago








Quite a bit more west today

 

[lexxnchloe]

If the high over the NW ATL builds a little more it might not recurve

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[Arcc]

If the high over the NW ATL builds a little more it might not recurve


View attachment 149639

Mountains would have to move for that not to recurve. Not saying it cant because long term models, but no chance of hit there in that image. Surface highs mean little.

 

[lexxnchloe]

GFS alot stronger

 

[lexxnchloe]

Hurricane well before the Islands. Might mean an early recurve

 

[Henry2326]

18z Icon......look at that train of storms.
Btw.....next storm at 20n is same position as last couple of Icon runs.

 

[lexxnchloe]

GFS gets it to here but its on a weakening trend from the bahamas to here

 

[GaWx]

GFS gets it to here but its on a weakening trend from the bahamas to here

View attachment 149655

More importantly, the 18Z GEFS has a good number of CONUS threatening members to the Gulf and E coast.

 

[lexxnchloe]

ICON SW of 12z

 

[lexxnchloe]

Well SW of 12Z

 

[accu35]

Safely out to sea

 

[lexxnchloe]

Safely out to sea

EURO says yikes and gets even further west. Moving a bit west of north at that point. All models stronger tonite

 

[LickWx]

EURO says yikes and gets even further west


View attachment 149681

This season like 99, Debby is Dennis and whatever comes later is Floyd

 

[lexxnchloe]

GFS much stronger but OTS

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

GFS stronger still but OTS though the pattern is better to get close