Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread

[Brent]

Looks like it's time to repeat Beryl

 

[NoSnowATL]

Just goes to show SST's really dont matter much. 82F is all you need. I will be happy with 12/6/2 now.

I think SAL will have more weight into the matrix when they start doing the predictions next year.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Looks like it's time to repeat Beryl
View attachment 149493

Congratulation Big Bend.

 

[lexxnchloe]

Euro develops a depression but ridging is gone.

 

[Downeastnc]

Meanwhile in EPAC

 

[Brent]

Meanwhile in EPAC

View attachment 149523

Probably their peak season assuming the Atlantic predictions pan out

 

[NCSNOW]

Not much noise on the short term horizon. CV season should start producing here soon, climo clock says its about time. Jury will be rendering its verdict over next 3-4 weeks.

 

[Brent]

Not much noise on the short term horizon. CV season should start producing here soon, climo clock says its about time. Jury will be rendering its verdict over next 3-4 weeks.


View attachment 149529

August 20th is usually the date to watch. A lot of years have had a big flip around then

2017 is the big one recently... Harvey and Irma

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

The 1010mb low in the MDR is what the Euro develop

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND
LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2024
We have slightly increased our forecast and continue to call for an extremely active
Atlantic hurricane season in 2024. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the
hurricane Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean remain near
record warm levels. Extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide a much more
conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and
intensification. We anticipate cool neutral ENSO or La Niña during the peak of the
Atlantic hurricane season, resulting in reduced levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind
shear. Hurricane Beryl, a deep tropical Category 5 hurricane, is also a likely harbinger of
a hyperactive season. This forecast is of above-normal confidence. We anticipate a well
above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United
States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are
reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season.
Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.
(as of 9 July 2024)
By Philip J. Klotzbach1
, Michael M. Bell2
, Alexander J. DesRosiers3
, and Levi G

 

[lexxnchloe]

If CSU is right something better start to happen really soon

 

[NCSNOW]

I been riding 1933 as a analog. Since we been hyperactive forecasting the season since pre Christmas. It was a La Nina as well. All about the stearing,Sal and Shear no mattervwhat else happens imo.

 

[$alt]

Still have like 25 more storms to go.

 

[Brent]

Still have like 25 more storms to go.

19* thats counting the 4 we had but as long as we get 2-3 more this month I think it's doable. September has crossed double digits before and October has a second peak

 

[lexxnchloe]

Euro still has what is a weak storm

 

[Snowfan]

 

[snowc]

There's more storms?!