• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

Downeastnc said:
Well the second storm crossing Florida then bringing hurricane conditions up pretty much the entire east coast would be the icing on the cake and make this the most destructive cane year ever. Would bankrupt insurance companies for sure....
Click to expand...

Indeed. Fortunately that’s out in fantasyland, of course.
 
Per model consensus, there’s a chance for a short-lived TC to form just E of FL from an area of convection currently in the E GOM ahead of Milton that would then move well OTS. Is anyone else watching this? For example, the 12Z UKMET has a TC from this:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 27.6N 78.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2024 48 27.6N 78.8W 1003 23
0000UTC 09.10.2024 60 28.6N 75.5W 1002 28
1200UTC 09.10.2024 72 30.0N 71.9W 1003 30
0000UTC 10.10.2024 84 32.3N 66.5W 1004 30
1200UTC 10.10.2024 96 35.3N 60.5W 1003 33
0000UTC 11.10.2024 108 38.9N 54.6W 999 37
1200UTC 11.10.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING
 
GaWx said:
Per model consensus, there’s a chance for a short-lived TC to form just E of FL from an area of convection currently in the E GOM ahead of Milton that would then move well OTS. Is anyone else watching this? For example, the 12Z UKMET has a TC from this:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 27.6N 78.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2024 48 27.6N 78.8W 1003 23
0000UTC 09.10.2024 60 28.6N 75.5W 1002 28
1200UTC 09.10.2024 72 30.0N 71.9W 1003 30
0000UTC 10.10.2024 84 32.3N 66.5W 1004 30
1200UTC 10.10.2024 96 35.3N 60.5W 1003 33
0000UTC 11.10.2024 108 38.9N 54.6W 999 37
1200UTC 11.10.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING
Click to expand...
Holy smokes. How would this steer Milton, if at all?
 
GaWx said:
Per model consensus, there’s a chance for a short-lived TC to form just E of FL from an area of convection currently in the E GOM ahead of Milton that would then move well OTS. Is anyone else watching this? For example, the 12Z UKMET has a TC from this:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 27.6N 78.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2024 48 27.6N 78.8W 1003 23
0000UTC 09.10.2024 60 28.6N 75.5W 1002 28
1200UTC 09.10.2024 72 30.0N 71.9W 1003 30
0000UTC 10.10.2024 84 32.3N 66.5W 1004 30
1200UTC 10.10.2024 96 35.3N 60.5W 1003 33
0000UTC 11.10.2024 108 38.9N 54.6W 999 37
1200UTC 11.10.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING
Click to expand...
Good catch. I would presume if this developed, it would influence a little further south Milton landfall through Fujiwara interaction (strong enough to matter?) and a weakness in the SE Atlantic UL ridge. Interesting.
 
GaWx said:
Per model consensus, there’s a chance for a short-lived TC to form just E of FL from an area of convection currently in the E GOM ahead of Milton that would then move well OTS. Is anyone else watching this? For example, the 12Z UKMET has a TC from this:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 27.6N 78.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2024 48 27.6N 78.8W 1003 23
0000UTC 09.10.2024 60 28.6N 75.5W 1002 28
1200UTC 09.10.2024 72 30.0N 71.9W 1003 30
0000UTC 10.10.2024 84 32.3N 66.5W 1004 30
1200UTC 10.10.2024 96 35.3N 60.5W 1003 33
0000UTC 11.10.2024 108 38.9N 54.6W 999 37
1200UTC 11.10.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING
Click to expand...
I believe there will be alot of troughing coming down mid Oct that nothing will hit anywhere except maybe Florida moving forward imo
 
itryatmanysportsespgolf70 said:
I believe there will be alot of troughing coming down mid Oct that nothing will hit anywhere except maybe Florida moving forward imo
Click to expand...
If something does form in the NW Caribbean, with these powerful troughs dropping down, there is also the risk of a rocketship inland to the southeastern states if things line up badly.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top