Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

Henry2326 · 2024-10-01T08:20:40-0400

jeremyt said:
Not there on the 6z. Not gonna count it though, too far out to rely on individual deterministic runs. Gonna have to look at the ensembles here in a bit.

It's not there on the 6z because the 6z doesn't go that far out. Have to wait on 12z. But.....I'm an ICON fan and it performed unbelievable for Helene. I don't rely on 1 model but when we have Icon and GFS with a cane, we should pay attention. And I agree with ensembles. It's an important part of the data set. Icon and GFS in practically the same spot in the same timeframe on this run.

Henry2326 · 2024-10-01T08:42:44-0400

Notice where the High is. It blocks it in when it comes offshore at Jax so it stops it and it wanders around for 2-3 days or so. Last thing we need.

Henry2326 · 2024-10-01T09:05:44-0400

Euro ensemble

NCSNOW · 2024-10-01T09:13:15-0400

jeremyt said:
Not there on the 6z. Not gonna count it though, too far out to rely on individual deterministic runs. Gonna have to look at the ensembles here in a bit.

8 days away. So ops should start sniffing and ens members going up if legit. I dont want any of it. But will have to pay attn. Tons family in Valdosta area.

NCSNOW · 2024-10-01T09:15:14-0400

Henry2326 said:
Notice where the High is. It blocks it in when it comes offshore at Jax so it stops it and it wanders around for 2-3 days or so. Last thing we need.

View attachment 152416

If the high gets anymore in front, wouldnt it steer it up seaboard?

Henry2326 · 2024-10-01T10:51:04-0400

NCSNOW said:
If the high gets anymore in front, wouldnt it steer it up seaboard?

That's what I'm worried about.

jrips27 · 2024-10-01T11:14:39-0400

Henry2326 · 2024-10-01T11:51:52-0400

12z Icon back to a weak low into south FL.

Henry2326 · 2024-10-01T12:41:00-0400

12z CMC pushes it back to the western Caribbean to try again in the future.....feels kinda biblical.....GFS is doing the same.. post it a minute.

Henry2326 · 2024-10-01T12:42:33-0400

12z GFS.....same as CMC

Shaggy · 2024-10-01T13:24:05-0400

Henry2326 said:
12z GFS.....same as CMC

View attachment 152423

Gfs gets it off the east coast and tries to trap it under that high pressure

lexxnchloe · 2024-10-01T13:27:13-0400

Shaggy said:
Gfs gets it off the east coast and tries to trap it under that high pressure

Henry2326 · 2024-10-01T13:47:41-0400

Shaggy said:
Gfs gets it off the east coast and tries to trap it under that high pressure

Either it splits the low or there were 2 trying to consolidate-

Arcc · 2024-10-01T13:51:06-0400

lexxnchloe said:
View attachment 152425

Looks subtropical.

Henry2326 · 2024-10-01T13:55:23-0400

The low doesn't appear until:
Icon Saturday
CMC and GFS on Sunday in the far bottom western gulf.

accu35 · 2024-10-01T14:21:00-0400

This is the most confusing models runs I ever seen

dsaur · 2024-10-01T14:29:19-0400

Doppelganger storms.

Brent · 2024-10-01T14:49:26-0400

accu35 said:
This is the most confusing models runs I ever seen

I would expect anything that happens would go east eventually.... I mean it is October now. The season is rapidly ending west of Florida

Shaggy · 2024-10-01T15:04:28-0400

Brent said:
I would expect anything that happens would go east eventually.... I mean it is October now. The season is rapidly ending west of Florida

Typically I agree. The seasonal trend has been for the big ridge to be set up over the NW Atlantic. The gfs and CMC are both solutions that could still spell trouble for the SE

Henry2326 · 2024-10-01T15:29:06-0400

accu35 said:
This is the most confusing models runs I ever seen

I'm still not buying it although I love it. The highs never hold up as well as the GFS predicts......and the multiple lows in one small area is a little crazy.