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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

jrips27 said:
I’m guessing you meant evacuate. Not everyone has the funds/resources to travel and spend hundreds/thousands of dollars on accommodations.

Sure people who were there on a trip or something should’ve gotten out of there
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They could still go somewhere, not like they have to drive to the west coast. That excuse is nothing but an excuse.
 
AJ1013 said:
It might be if I were some sort of supernatural being with the power to control the weather. Considering that I'm not (as far as I know), I fail to see your point.
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It's just insensitive. There most likely are bodies yet to be discovered from a major hurricane and you're wishing for another one so you can feel a little cooler drier air. I mean come on, if you don't see the issue with that, I can't help you
 
18z GFS not looking as promising. System is weaker and doesn't seem to want to phase with the trough to the NW as effectively. It is eerie that it's showing landfall literally within 20 or so miles of where Helene hit. That part of the state has been bombarded the last few years despite climatologically being less hurricane prone than other areas.
 
Yeah. This run is a bust

nHOFT2E.png
 
From LC

While the diminishing Hurricane Isaac (headed for the United Kingdom as an extratropical squall center) and weak Tropical Storm Joyce (middle of subtropical Atlantic Ocean fish storm) are non-players in the tropical cyclone theater, one or two of the impulses shown from the Caribbean Sea into the Congo River Basin will become a named storm. The polar westerlies are impinging on warm-core convection between North America and Africa, but are doing so erratically. That means shearing components aloft will not be present at times, and a "Kirk" and "Leslie" should appear on the hurricane roster sooner rather than later. All of the global forecast models show the system in the Caribbean Sea passing over far western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico by next weekend, and then recurve into either Alabama or Florida. Since there will be a dogging cold trough through the Midwest, I suspect that the path of the latest storm will be through the peninsula of Florida, then turning up along or just to the left of the East Coast. Given the merger of the system with a cold low aloft and surface front, this could be a rather dramatic wind, rain and thunderstorm event in the Appalachian Mountains, Piedmont and Eastern Seaboard October 6 - 8.

At this rate the tropical cyclone season will be active until about Halloween, and a few other "cold core conversion events' may occur in November as well.
 
lexxnchloe said:
From LC

While the diminishing Hurricane Isaac (headed for the United Kingdom as an extratropical squall center) and weak Tropical Storm Joyce (middle of subtropical Atlantic Ocean fish storm) are non-players in the tropical cyclone theater, one or two of the impulses shown from the Caribbean Sea into the Congo River Basin will become a named storm. The polar westerlies are impinging on warm-core convection between North America and Africa, but are doing so erratically. That means shearing components aloft will not be present at times, and a "Kirk" and "Leslie" should appear on the hurricane roster sooner rather than later. All of the global forecast models show the system in the Caribbean Sea passing over far western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico by next weekend, and then recurve into either Alabama or Florida. Since there will be a dogging cold trough through the Midwest, I suspect that the path of the latest storm will be through the peninsula of Florida, then turning up along or just to the left of the East Coast. Given the merger of the system with a cold low aloft and surface front, this could be a rather dramatic wind, rain and thunderstorm event in the Appalachian Mountains, Piedmont and Eastern Seaboard October 6 - 8.

At this rate the tropical cyclone season will be active until about Halloween, and a few other "cold core conversion events' may occur in November as well.
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Not sure why he’s pin pointing landfall way early, especially when were days before any development and where it forms at. Also, this is the same guy I believe that had Helene making landfall in Alabama.
 
Looks like based off the GFS if that GOM storm does come to fruition, track will be based a lot on how fast that cold front tries to move through. Slower=more west Faster=more east
 
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